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Hawkish ECB = Bearish EURUSD

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On Dec 15th 2022, Christine Lagarde President of the European Central Bank surprised the market with hawkish tone. Traders started to price risk of tight monetary policy in the EU singale market. It is expected to see lower EURUSD FX rate the months ahead as economic data show slowdown of activities and maybe hard recession.
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Hawkish ECB Press Conference on Dec 15th-2022 made the spread to widen between the Italien 10 Year Gov bond and the German 10 Year Bund. This show that market participants are pricing more risk for EU singale market.

According to Dansk Bank Analyst: "In the near term, our bearish case for EUR/USD is under pressure. However, we still think EUR/USD is a sell-on-rallies rather than a buy-on-dips."

⚠️ So with this being said, i'll have to start to look for short EUR/USD.

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EUR/USD FX rate fall below 1.06
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During A-PAC session the Band of Japan increased the cap on the 10YR Yield JGB to 0.5% from 0.25%

I think this decision will increase the risks and uncertainities in the global market and eventually will be brearish for the EURUSD.

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Massive breakout from DXY falling wadge, that will take the EURUSD FX rate to down side.
Although the yield spread between the German 02YR Gov. BOUND vs U.S. 02YR Gov. is pointing to upside, still the EURUSD is expected reverse to downside. $Macro EUR USD $Chart

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EURUSD did slip below the 1.060 level, now heading to 1.0575 and 1.055
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🚨 BREAKING NEWS :

The US will require travellers from China to submit a negative Covid-19 test beginning on January 5th 2023

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⚠️ Dollar erases and reverses losses on positional, fundamental and technical grounds with EUR deflated by sub-consensus German state CPIs.
⚠️German Regional Inflation data surprised lower.

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⚠️In the first trading of 2023 EUR is down 1.4% vs USD !

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OmarNAMOUCHI
Fundamental AnalysisTrend AnalysisWave Analysis

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Fundamental AnalysisTrend AnalysisWave Analysis
OmarNAMOUCHI

Related publications

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.