EUR/USD what to expect post U.S. downbeat NFP report?
reasons why to expect a retest of 1.1910 to be capped by 1.1930 ahead of ECB monetary policy statement?
1- ECB officials Klaas Knot and Robert Holzmann said in separate interviews this week that the central bank should dial back its crisis-era policies and slow down the pace of bond buying. Their comments came on the same day that data showed an inflation surge in the euro zone to 3%, and ahead of the ECB’s policy meeting last week.
2- ECB will start slowing down its pandemic bond purchases in the fourth quarter and may not exhaust the whole €1.85 trillion program before it ends next year, according a survey of economists. An improved economic outlook will allow policy makers to reduce the pace of buying to about €50 billion in March.
- The discussion on tapering was earlier than anticipated, perhaps owing to strong inflation prints. This was definitely a jolt and raises the importance of the September ECB meeting -
3- The U.S. jobs report was a big fat miss. Nonfarm payrolls increased 235,000 last month—way below the median estimate of 733,000 and the smallest gain in seven months. The deceleration likely reflects both fears about the delta variant and difficulties filling vacant positions, that complicates things for the Fed. The central bank is all but certain to delay considering a move to scale back asset purchases later this month. This report puts September off the table , a tapering later this year is still the base case.
4- Biden's administration unveiled a $65 billion plan to fight future pandemics, likening the proposal to the Apollo space program. (more fiscal support)
reasons why to expect a retreat after the retest of 1.1910 to be capped by 1.1835-1.1825, or why to expect a short term Bearish weekly opening price?
(HOWEVER IT IS LOW EXPECTED)
1- Despite the downbeat NFP report, the unemployment rate fell to 5.2% which is STILL considered as a progress towards the Fed's employment goal
2- Hitting pause | Senator Joe Manchin is demanding a “strategic pause” in action on President Joe Biden’s economic agenda, potentially imperiling the $3.5 trillion tax and spending package that Democratic leaders plan to push through Congress this fall. (less future spending is USD positive)
CONCLUSION
- Price range is expected to be (1.1850-1.1925) ahead of ECB monetary policy statement -
- A retreat to 1.1835 is not totally ruled out due to upbeat U.S. unemployment rate report -
- FOMC Member Williams Speaks and ECB Monetary Policy Statement to be eyed -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
1- ECB officials Klaas Knot and Robert Holzmann said in separate interviews this week that the central bank should dial back its crisis-era policies and slow down the pace of bond buying. Their comments came on the same day that data showed an inflation surge in the euro zone to 3%, and ahead of the ECB’s policy meeting last week.
2- ECB will start slowing down its pandemic bond purchases in the fourth quarter and may not exhaust the whole €1.85 trillion program before it ends next year, according a survey of economists. An improved economic outlook will allow policy makers to reduce the pace of buying to about €50 billion in March.
- The discussion on tapering was earlier than anticipated, perhaps owing to strong inflation prints. This was definitely a jolt and raises the importance of the September ECB meeting -
3- The U.S. jobs report was a big fat miss. Nonfarm payrolls increased 235,000 last month—way below the median estimate of 733,000 and the smallest gain in seven months. The deceleration likely reflects both fears about the delta variant and difficulties filling vacant positions, that complicates things for the Fed. The central bank is all but certain to delay considering a move to scale back asset purchases later this month. This report puts September off the table , a tapering later this year is still the base case.
4- Biden's administration unveiled a $65 billion plan to fight future pandemics, likening the proposal to the Apollo space program. (more fiscal support)
reasons why to expect a retreat after the retest of 1.1910 to be capped by 1.1835-1.1825, or why to expect a short term Bearish weekly opening price?
(HOWEVER IT IS LOW EXPECTED)
1- Despite the downbeat NFP report, the unemployment rate fell to 5.2% which is STILL considered as a progress towards the Fed's employment goal
2- Hitting pause | Senator Joe Manchin is demanding a “strategic pause” in action on President Joe Biden’s economic agenda, potentially imperiling the $3.5 trillion tax and spending package that Democratic leaders plan to push through Congress this fall. (less future spending is USD positive)
CONCLUSION
- Price range is expected to be (1.1850-1.1925) ahead of ECB monetary policy statement -
- A retreat to 1.1835 is not totally ruled out due to upbeat U.S. unemployment rate report -
- FOMC Member Williams Speaks and ECB Monetary Policy Statement to be eyed -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
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