All of us came into this business only learning how to SPOT opportunities using various tools of the trade. We eagerly try to make money so hard that we do not know that this business is quite dangerous. That is why 80% more lose money. I think I have wise up. Have you?
I thinks we should always to be on a lookout for TRAPs FIRST and OPPORTUNITIES SECOND.
Nowadays, I have wise up whenever I see sudden moves. I tend not to believe in the direction of the move. In this case, 200 pips down after the 08/2022 CPI was announced.
What you have read in the MSM lately is how massive the headline inflation had become. Many talking heads are predicting a huge rate hike soon. I have read some calls for 100bps!!! Many of you would believe so. If you had been one of those who had SELL orders these 2 days, then you should be careful. The question is, why trade NOW? Why not wait until the FOMC Dot Plot next week and trade with FACTS instead. You should know very well that there is NO WAY the market will make any LARGE move further down without knowing what the Fed will do next.
Here is something to ponder:
newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce
One year ahead is now 5.7%. Three years ahead is now 2.80%. Five years ahead is now 2.0%.
I find it strange that the US03Y is now 3.885%. Much higher that the 3 years ahead inflation expectation. Something is not right.
At such a moment, lets be cautious and WAIT until the FOMC announce the Dot Plot.
In the meantime, I see a TRAP forming.
Have a great weekend.
P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
I thinks we should always to be on a lookout for TRAPs FIRST and OPPORTUNITIES SECOND.
Nowadays, I have wise up whenever I see sudden moves. I tend not to believe in the direction of the move. In this case, 200 pips down after the 08/2022 CPI was announced.
What you have read in the MSM lately is how massive the headline inflation had become. Many talking heads are predicting a huge rate hike soon. I have read some calls for 100bps!!! Many of you would believe so. If you had been one of those who had SELL orders these 2 days, then you should be careful. The question is, why trade NOW? Why not wait until the FOMC Dot Plot next week and trade with FACTS instead. You should know very well that there is NO WAY the market will make any LARGE move further down without knowing what the Fed will do next.
Here is something to ponder:
newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce
One year ahead is now 5.7%. Three years ahead is now 2.80%. Five years ahead is now 2.0%.
I find it strange that the US03Y is now 3.885%. Much higher that the 3 years ahead inflation expectation. Something is not right.
At such a moment, lets be cautious and WAIT until the FOMC announce the Dot Plot.
In the meantime, I see a TRAP forming.
Have a great weekend.
P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.