EUR/USD how the NFP data can affect the price direction?
Updated
In this post I will mention how the U.S. ADP Nonfarm employment change (Jul) data can affect the price direction?
- The forecasted ADP Nonfarm employment change (Jul) data is expected to show 695K added jobs following the previous release of 692K added jobs , I expect the following possibilities,
1- 695K - 695K + = price will break below 1.1850 to target 1.1800 considering the maximum target of 1.1750
( THAT IS BECAUSE ANY SIGNAL OF PROGRESS IN EMPLOYMENT AND ADDED JOBS WOULD SUPPORT AN ANNOUNCEMENT SOON ON SCALING BACK ASSET PURCHASES (LESS PRINTING USD, AND A STRONGER USD)
2- 600k - 695k - = THAT WOULD CONFIRM THE MINOR PRICE RANGE OF 1.1920 - 1.1800 AS IT WOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A MIXED DATA, NEITHER SHOWING PROGRESS ON EMPLOYMENT NOR SLOW IN EMPLOYMENT RECOVERY
3- 600k - = price would break above 1.1900 and would probably test the peak of the range 1.1950 following soft reversals to 1.1900 and 1.1880
( THAT IS BECAUSE AS LONG AS THE FED HAS A HAWKISH SHIFT TONE, THE MONETARY SENTIMENT WOULD STILL BE ON THE USD SIDE, TILL FURTHER ANNOUNCEMENTS )
SPOTLIGHTS
- IT IS WISE TO REMEMBER THAT THE CURRENT SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE IS 1.1900 - 1.1800 -
- SHORT POSITIONS TO BE CLOSED AND REPEATED AT PRICE RANGE PEAKS IF NFP DATA HAPPENS TO BE LESS THAN 600k -
- I RECOMMENT TRADERS TO READ MY PREVIOUS IDEA IN WHERE I MENTIONED THE CURRENT SHORT AND LONG TERM PRICE RANGES AND THE FUNDAMENTAL REASONS FOR THAT CONCLUSION -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
- The forecasted ADP Nonfarm employment change (Jul) data is expected to show 695K added jobs following the previous release of 692K added jobs , I expect the following possibilities,
1- 695K - 695K + = price will break below 1.1850 to target 1.1800 considering the maximum target of 1.1750
( THAT IS BECAUSE ANY SIGNAL OF PROGRESS IN EMPLOYMENT AND ADDED JOBS WOULD SUPPORT AN ANNOUNCEMENT SOON ON SCALING BACK ASSET PURCHASES (LESS PRINTING USD, AND A STRONGER USD)
2- 600k - 695k - = THAT WOULD CONFIRM THE MINOR PRICE RANGE OF 1.1920 - 1.1800 AS IT WOULD BE CONSIDERED AS A MIXED DATA, NEITHER SHOWING PROGRESS ON EMPLOYMENT NOR SLOW IN EMPLOYMENT RECOVERY
3- 600k - = price would break above 1.1900 and would probably test the peak of the range 1.1950 following soft reversals to 1.1900 and 1.1880
( THAT IS BECAUSE AS LONG AS THE FED HAS A HAWKISH SHIFT TONE, THE MONETARY SENTIMENT WOULD STILL BE ON THE USD SIDE, TILL FURTHER ANNOUNCEMENTS )
SPOTLIGHTS
- IT IS WISE TO REMEMBER THAT THE CURRENT SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE IS 1.1900 - 1.1800 -
- SHORT POSITIONS TO BE CLOSED AND REPEATED AT PRICE RANGE PEAKS IF NFP DATA HAPPENS TO BE LESS THAN 600k -
- I RECOMMENT TRADERS TO READ MY PREVIOUS IDEA IN WHERE I MENTIONED THE CURRENT SHORT AND LONG TERM PRICE RANGES AND THE FUNDAMENTAL REASONS FOR THAT CONCLUSION -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
Note
FED'S CLARIDA SPEAKS MENTIONED EXPECTING CONDITIONS FOR RAISING RATES TO BE MET BY END OF 2022 AND THAT WAS THE REASON OF THE IMMEDIATE REJECTION AT 1.1900 (HAWKISH) ACCORDINGLY THERE WILL BE A CHANGE IN PRICE RANGE AND I WILL WRITE A NEW IDEA ABOUT IT TOMORROW, THE RISK OF THE MONETARY SENTIMENT WAS MENTIONED IN THIS IDEA.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.