Euro-dollar hesitates around $1.03
Euro-dollar’s long downtrend has paused for breath in January so far as participants digest possibilities for central banks this year. Two cuts by the Fed seem to be more-or-less confirmed for now but there’s still some intrigue as to how low the European Central Bank (‘the ECB’) might go in 2025. Recent expectations suggest three cuts with a chance of about 70% for a fourth at the end of the year. Among major currencies, the euro probably has the most to lose from the introduction of potentially large American tariffs.
2 January’s push below $1.03 was retraced fairly quickly and the price has been reluctant to push below there again since. Based on the weekly chart, this area doesn’t seem like an especially strong support, so unless there’s a significant change in fundamentals, the downtrend might continue. Parity is an obvious support but it would probably take some time for the price to move that low. $1.02 or maybe $1.01 seem more realistic as short to medium-term targets for new sellers.
It’s difficult to see much upside currently for euro-dollar beyond $1.045. The 50 SMA from Bands could confirm this area as a resistance. With no clear signal from volume or the slow stochastic, the next movement depends mainly on the results of the NFP and next week’s American inflation.
This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
2 January’s push below $1.03 was retraced fairly quickly and the price has been reluctant to push below there again since. Based on the weekly chart, this area doesn’t seem like an especially strong support, so unless there’s a significant change in fundamentals, the downtrend might continue. Parity is an obvious support but it would probably take some time for the price to move that low. $1.02 or maybe $1.01 seem more realistic as short to medium-term targets for new sellers.
It’s difficult to see much upside currently for euro-dollar beyond $1.045. The 50 SMA from Bands could confirm this area as a resistance. With no clear signal from volume or the slow stochastic, the next movement depends mainly on the results of the NFP and next week’s American inflation.
This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
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