EurUsd - Unchained ( A story behind the chart )
Updated
This idea explains where I try to enter an EurUsd short position next week.
I'm not trading the currencies too much because this market became the World's central banks playground in the last 10 years. They print, intervene and steal money from people to their liking.
It doesn't mean I'm not watching these markets though.
A few great opportunities are forming in the currency markets in the following few weeks. Especially in the USD pairs.
We all know how important is the export to every nation.
The balance of trade is the difference between the monetary value of a nation's exports and imports over a certain time period.The balance of trade measures a flow of exports and imports over a given period of time.
If a country exports a greater value than it imports, it has a positive trade balance, and conversely, if a country imports a greater value than it exports, it has a negative trade balance. It's the same like a company : if you buy more products then you sell the company is lossmaking.
Every country's central bank is trying to help the exports by weakening its own currency. When a nation's currency is weak to products it's exporting is cheaper for the other nations.
The ECB has started to control the EurUsd pair for more than 2 years since the beginning of 2018. They weakened the Euro from week to week. That meant cheap BMW and Mercedes cars to the American consumers.
In 2020 February the pressure was so much on the FED they started to intervene hard the buck and the Euro started to rally. 2 weeks later the pandemia started and the EU started its monetary easing earlier than the US and weakened the Euro to new lows. On the 2nd of March the FED started the 2nd attempt of the USD weakening. The pair entered a triangle as the 2 central bank was fighting to control the pair.
At the end the triangle break up and the ECB has lost control.
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Right now we are at the final stage of the first part of the EurUsd rally.
DXY last week Friday broke an important support triggering a panic selling.
It means next week sometimes DXY will bottom and the EurUsd will top out.
Next week FOMC meeting. The chance is high EurUsd will top around that date.
My target is the 2018May- 2018 Sept consolidation box high at 1.18.
I'm not trading the currencies too much because this market became the World's central banks playground in the last 10 years. They print, intervene and steal money from people to their liking.
It doesn't mean I'm not watching these markets though.
A few great opportunities are forming in the currency markets in the following few weeks. Especially in the USD pairs.
We all know how important is the export to every nation.
The balance of trade is the difference between the monetary value of a nation's exports and imports over a certain time period.The balance of trade measures a flow of exports and imports over a given period of time.
If a country exports a greater value than it imports, it has a positive trade balance, and conversely, if a country imports a greater value than it exports, it has a negative trade balance. It's the same like a company : if you buy more products then you sell the company is lossmaking.
Every country's central bank is trying to help the exports by weakening its own currency. When a nation's currency is weak to products it's exporting is cheaper for the other nations.
The ECB has started to control the EurUsd pair for more than 2 years since the beginning of 2018. They weakened the Euro from week to week. That meant cheap BMW and Mercedes cars to the American consumers.
In 2020 February the pressure was so much on the FED they started to intervene hard the buck and the Euro started to rally. 2 weeks later the pandemia started and the EU started its monetary easing earlier than the US and weakened the Euro to new lows. On the 2nd of March the FED started the 2nd attempt of the USD weakening. The pair entered a triangle as the 2 central bank was fighting to control the pair.
At the end the triangle break up and the ECB has lost control.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Right now we are at the final stage of the first part of the EurUsd rally.
DXY last week Friday broke an important support triggering a panic selling.
It means next week sometimes DXY will bottom and the EurUsd will top out.
Next week FOMC meeting. The chance is high EurUsd will top around that date.
My target is the 2018May- 2018 Sept consolidation box high at 1.18.
Note
Almost there(1.18)
Note
I think we are going to top tomorrow.Note
A stone throw from 1.18.
I’m waiting for a reversal candle before starting to short. Maybe the FED says something tomorrow what triggers the reversal?
Trade active
Note
Note
We topped at 1.19 hundred pips higher than my beginning of the week forecastNote
10 SMA backtest an a drop:
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