For this long off 1.1193 targeting 1.1909 vs. a retrace back under 1.1193, I’d peg the probabilities roughly as:
Outcome Probability
Rally above 1.1909 first ~75%
Drop below 1.1193 first ~25%
Rationale
Bullish breakout: EUR/USD has convincingly flipped 1.115–1.120 into support and cleared the 1.15–1.16 ceiling with follow‐through.
Momentum: Daily candles show clean advances with little upper‐wick rejection; RSI/MACD remain in bullish territory without overbought exhaustion.
Bear case stretch: To return under 1.1193, price would need to wipe out the entire breakout and break multiple support layers (1.1550, 1.1400, 1.1200) — a lower‐probability scenario absent a major macro shock.
Outcome Probability
Rally above 1.1909 first ~75%
Drop below 1.1193 first ~25%
Rationale
Bullish breakout: EUR/USD has convincingly flipped 1.115–1.120 into support and cleared the 1.15–1.16 ceiling with follow‐through.
Momentum: Daily candles show clean advances with little upper‐wick rejection; RSI/MACD remain in bullish territory without overbought exhaustion.
Bear case stretch: To return under 1.1193, price would need to wipe out the entire breakout and break multiple support layers (1.1550, 1.1400, 1.1200) — a lower‐probability scenario absent a major macro shock.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.