At the moment, EURUSD is maintaining a bearish market structure on both the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes. Price action has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, which is a clear indication of sustained selling pressure in the market.
Zooming in, we’ve noticed that previous support zones are no longer being respected, which further supports the bearish narrative. These failed supports are now acting as weak resistance zones, and price is cutting through them with minimal hesitation — a sign that buyers are losing control while sellers continue to dominate the market.
One of the key technical levels on our radar is marked by a horizontal red line, currently acting as minor support. A candle close below this level would be highly significant. It would indicate that the temporary consolidation or hesitation we're seeing is breaking to the downside. If this scenario plays out, it could trigger a strong bearish continuation, with increased volume likely to enter the market from breakout traders and institutions scaling in.
The chart points to a clearly defined target area for this move, located in the 1.07500 to 1.07800 range, which is marked in green. This is a strong historical support zone — one that has previously held and sparked reversals. We anticipate that if price reaches this area, we may begin to see a slowdown in bearish momentum and a potential reversal setup.
1 hour trend
Trade Plan
Bearish Bias While Below the Red Line
Bullish Setup at Key Support
Fundamental Analysis: U.S.-EU Tariff Situation
In addition to the technical structure, we also need to be mindful of the fundamental backdrop, particularly the recent escalation in tariff-related discussions between the U.S. and the European Union.
The Biden administration is reportedly exploring a fresh round of tariffs on EU imports in response to long-standing disagreements around digital services taxes and subsidies in the aviation industry. These talks have gained momentum recently, with the potential for announcements in the coming days or weeks.
Should these tariffs be confirmed, it would likely:
On the flip side, if negotiations lead to a positive resolution or postponement of tariffs, the Euro could see some relief, which may coincide with a bounce from the green support zone on the chart potentially lining up with our long bias at that level.
Conclusion
The EURUSD pair is currently offering a clean, high-probability setup driven by both technical and fundamental factors. With the market respecting bearish structure on the lower timeframes and support levels being broken with ease, the path of least resistance remains to the downside at least until the 1.07500–1.07800 zone is reached.
From there, a shift in momentum could present a great opportunity to switch bias and look for a long entry with favorable risk-reward.
This trade idea remains valid as long as price respects structure. Always manage risk and stay updated with any breaking news around U.S.–EU trade talks, as those developments could heavily influence the direction of EURUSD in the coming sessions.
__________________________________________
Thanks for your support!
If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Zooming in, we’ve noticed that previous support zones are no longer being respected, which further supports the bearish narrative. These failed supports are now acting as weak resistance zones, and price is cutting through them with minimal hesitation — a sign that buyers are losing control while sellers continue to dominate the market.
One of the key technical levels on our radar is marked by a horizontal red line, currently acting as minor support. A candle close below this level would be highly significant. It would indicate that the temporary consolidation or hesitation we're seeing is breaking to the downside. If this scenario plays out, it could trigger a strong bearish continuation, with increased volume likely to enter the market from breakout traders and institutions scaling in.
The chart points to a clearly defined target area for this move, located in the 1.07500 to 1.07800 range, which is marked in green. This is a strong historical support zone — one that has previously held and sparked reversals. We anticipate that if price reaches this area, we may begin to see a slowdown in bearish momentum and a potential reversal setup.
1 hour trend
Trade Plan
Bearish Bias While Below the Red Line
- If price closes below the red line (~1.09200), I’ll be watching for follow-through to the downside.
- Entry opportunity may exist on the retest of this broken level, provided price shows rejection or continuation patterns.
- Target area: 1.07500–1.07800 (green support zone)
Bullish Setup at Key Support
- Should price reach the green zone, I’ll wait for confirmation before entering a long position.
- Ideal signs: bullish candlestick patterns, slowing momentum, volume divergence, or strong reaction wicks.
- Potential upside target: reversion back to broken structure or trendline zone.
Fundamental Analysis: U.S.-EU Tariff Situation
In addition to the technical structure, we also need to be mindful of the fundamental backdrop, particularly the recent escalation in tariff-related discussions between the U.S. and the European Union.
The Biden administration is reportedly exploring a fresh round of tariffs on EU imports in response to long-standing disagreements around digital services taxes and subsidies in the aviation industry. These talks have gained momentum recently, with the potential for announcements in the coming days or weeks.
Should these tariffs be confirmed, it would likely:
- Weigh heavily on the Euro, especially if the EU responds with retaliatory measures.
- Increase uncertainty in trade flows, damaging investor confidence in the region.
- Trigger a flight to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven asset, further fueling EURUSD downside.
On the flip side, if negotiations lead to a positive resolution or postponement of tariffs, the Euro could see some relief, which may coincide with a bounce from the green support zone on the chart potentially lining up with our long bias at that level.
Conclusion
The EURUSD pair is currently offering a clean, high-probability setup driven by both technical and fundamental factors. With the market respecting bearish structure on the lower timeframes and support levels being broken with ease, the path of least resistance remains to the downside at least until the 1.07500–1.07800 zone is reached.
From there, a shift in momentum could present a great opportunity to switch bias and look for a long entry with favorable risk-reward.
This trade idea remains valid as long as price respects structure. Always manage risk and stay updated with any breaking news around U.S.–EU trade talks, as those developments could heavily influence the direction of EURUSD in the coming sessions.
__________________________________________
Thanks for your support!
If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Trade active
Candle closed above the red line, signalling that price still prefers to be bullish. Lets see if we close below the red line later.
𝟔 𝐘𝐄𝐀𝐑𝐒 𝐄𝐗𝐏𝐄𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄𝐃 𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐃𝐄𝐑
💎 Free Signals
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bit.ly/BloFin20
💎 Free Signals
t.me/codeandcandle
🎁 Free trading Discord community
bit.ly/TehThomas
✅ Best exchange - 20% cashback
bit.ly/BloFin20
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
𝟔 𝐘𝐄𝐀𝐑𝐒 𝐄𝐗𝐏𝐄𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄𝐃 𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐃𝐄𝐑
💎 Free Signals
t.me/codeandcandle
🎁 Free trading Discord community
bit.ly/TehThomas
✅ Best exchange - 20% cashback
bit.ly/BloFin20
💎 Free Signals
t.me/codeandcandle
🎁 Free trading Discord community
bit.ly/TehThomas
✅ Best exchange - 20% cashback
bit.ly/BloFin20
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.