Folks,
Forex trading is not easy. When I first started, I tried the usual stuff like trend lines, indicators and EW - all of which I promptly discarded because my common sense tells me it won't work. Currently I am using VP together with Price Action. I know it works. That was when I first starting to contribute my ideas here back in 26 December 2021. Now, I can say that I am convinced it works. Sharing my ideas here helps me a lot. It makes me think and increase my confidence. I hope that it is of beneficial to you. My maxim is that to help myself, I would also have to help others.
If we look at the chart, it seems that price touches the edge of the what I call the 'Test of Control' zone. It looks like Buyers are trying to take control from Sellers. By the look of it, they did not succeed after two attempts. As of now, SELLERS ARE STILL IN CONTROL. [*Lets say price really broke above the Test of Control Zone. What do we do then? I will cover this later.]
Here are some of the FUNDAMENTALS we should always keep in mind:
1) Trend lines - every traders seems to love it. I have always say - Price moves UP and Down. It does not move sideways. So try NOT to use trendlines. If you look at the recent price action in the above chart, it is obvious price reacts to demand/supply zone. You would have lost more than you gain if you try to fit in trend lines to the above chart and make your trades. Using trendlines are the fav of fake gurus. They will use it to make prediction of price going up/down. Why? Because this is the EASIEST method to make money for THEM. What you get is just 'PREDICTIONS".
2) EW - this is by far the BIGGEST scam in the forex world. This method price is predictable based on a set of 'predictable' movement. It rest largely on the assumption of 'HERD mentality' whereby the participants thinks in manner which conform to human mentality - GREED + FEAR. But we know that as far as Forex is concerned, price movement REST SOLELY in the hands of the few BIG INSTITUTIONAL BANKS. So how does the herd mentality applies here? Any common sense? Currency movement is not even in the hands of the central bank of each individual country. You can take the example of the Turkish Lira. You think the Central Bank of Turkey can do anything to prevent it falling? If central banks (with the exception of the Fed of course) can't do it, do you think retail traders can make price move? Why not we try EW to predict the Lira. What I say is that if a method can't be applied universally, then it is useless. The only Law that can be applied universally as far as PRICE is concerned is the LAW OF DEMAND & SUPPLY. It can be use for forex, apples, car, sex, whatever.
3) What we have been using is VP - which follows Demand/Supply. We just need ONE ANSWER - WHO IS IN CONTROL? BUYER or SELLER. AND we need to also know under what circumstances control changes hand. This makes the whole things easier. Remember control is NOT somethings that changes often. Whoever has control, controls the price. Once we know who is in control, then we know the narratives that comes with it. What are the narratives when SELLER is in CONTROL?:
a) price moves UP only because of the need of SELLERS to look for SUPPLIES.
b) price MAY test the control zone because SELLERS are trying to determine if there are anymore BUYERS available. Once BUYERS are exhausted, then SELLERS will have a free hand. Sellers may test the limit of the control zone. Sellers may try all the tricks available so that they get the USD they want. But they will NEVER FAKE or LET control pass.
c) there will be a lot of fake moves with price moving UP simply because to get people to BUY EURUSD. This is why the trend liners need to beware. Price breaking trend lines which might look like price going up may be fake/temporary.
I would also need to add to the fact that BUYERS would NOT be able to take control. Why? It is simple. I was looking at the US02Y which was consistently trading above 3.10%. There is no pivot coming. EURUSD will not shoot UP. Buyers will not take control. In a sense, the BOND market is a better way to gauge what is coming.
Have a great week ahead.
P/S : Do not simply believe what I say. Use your common sense.
Forex trading is not easy. When I first started, I tried the usual stuff like trend lines, indicators and EW - all of which I promptly discarded because my common sense tells me it won't work. Currently I am using VP together with Price Action. I know it works. That was when I first starting to contribute my ideas here back in 26 December 2021. Now, I can say that I am convinced it works. Sharing my ideas here helps me a lot. It makes me think and increase my confidence. I hope that it is of beneficial to you. My maxim is that to help myself, I would also have to help others.
If we look at the chart, it seems that price touches the edge of the what I call the 'Test of Control' zone. It looks like Buyers are trying to take control from Sellers. By the look of it, they did not succeed after two attempts. As of now, SELLERS ARE STILL IN CONTROL. [*Lets say price really broke above the Test of Control Zone. What do we do then? I will cover this later.]
Here are some of the FUNDAMENTALS we should always keep in mind:
1) Trend lines - every traders seems to love it. I have always say - Price moves UP and Down. It does not move sideways. So try NOT to use trendlines. If you look at the recent price action in the above chart, it is obvious price reacts to demand/supply zone. You would have lost more than you gain if you try to fit in trend lines to the above chart and make your trades. Using trendlines are the fav of fake gurus. They will use it to make prediction of price going up/down. Why? Because this is the EASIEST method to make money for THEM. What you get is just 'PREDICTIONS".
2) EW - this is by far the BIGGEST scam in the forex world. This method price is predictable based on a set of 'predictable' movement. It rest largely on the assumption of 'HERD mentality' whereby the participants thinks in manner which conform to human mentality - GREED + FEAR. But we know that as far as Forex is concerned, price movement REST SOLELY in the hands of the few BIG INSTITUTIONAL BANKS. So how does the herd mentality applies here? Any common sense? Currency movement is not even in the hands of the central bank of each individual country. You can take the example of the Turkish Lira. You think the Central Bank of Turkey can do anything to prevent it falling? If central banks (with the exception of the Fed of course) can't do it, do you think retail traders can make price move? Why not we try EW to predict the Lira. What I say is that if a method can't be applied universally, then it is useless. The only Law that can be applied universally as far as PRICE is concerned is the LAW OF DEMAND & SUPPLY. It can be use for forex, apples, car, sex, whatever.
3) What we have been using is VP - which follows Demand/Supply. We just need ONE ANSWER - WHO IS IN CONTROL? BUYER or SELLER. AND we need to also know under what circumstances control changes hand. This makes the whole things easier. Remember control is NOT somethings that changes often. Whoever has control, controls the price. Once we know who is in control, then we know the narratives that comes with it. What are the narratives when SELLER is in CONTROL?:
a) price moves UP only because of the need of SELLERS to look for SUPPLIES.
b) price MAY test the control zone because SELLERS are trying to determine if there are anymore BUYERS available. Once BUYERS are exhausted, then SELLERS will have a free hand. Sellers may test the limit of the control zone. Sellers may try all the tricks available so that they get the USD they want. But they will NEVER FAKE or LET control pass.
c) there will be a lot of fake moves with price moving UP simply because to get people to BUY EURUSD. This is why the trend liners need to beware. Price breaking trend lines which might look like price going up may be fake/temporary.
I would also need to add to the fact that BUYERS would NOT be able to take control. Why? It is simple. I was looking at the US02Y which was consistently trading above 3.10%. There is no pivot coming. EURUSD will not shoot UP. Buyers will not take control. In a sense, the BOND market is a better way to gauge what is coming.
Have a great week ahead.
P/S : Do not simply believe what I say. Use your common sense.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.