EUR/USD monetary policy updates, data analysis
Updated
1- FED monetary policy updates >>
FOMC Member Clarida speech takeaways
"Starting Fed rate hikes in 2023 is entirely consistent with US central bank’s framework."
"Made progress toward goals since setting ‘substantial further progress’ bar for taper of asset purchases in December 2020."
"In coming meetings, Fed will again assess progress toward our goals, will give advance notice of taper."
(ANY SOONER ADVANCE NOTICE OF TAPER MEANS SOONER LESS PRINTING USD, AND EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED HAWKISH FED)
2- ECB monetary policy updates >>
- There is no rush to signal the future of its pandemic bond buying according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks. With almost 600 billion euros left to spend and the program running at least through the end of March, he says it would be much too early for a decision on whether to extend or phase out purchases - (MEANS EXTENDED BOND BUYING, LONGER DOVISH, EUR NEGATIVE).
CONCLUSION
- THE LONGER DOVISH, EXTENDING BOND BUYING ECB, AND THE FED CLARIDA SIGALING SOONER ADVANCE NOTICE OF TAPER CAUSED A REJECTION AT 1.1900 -
- ACCORDINGLY NEW SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE 1.1860 - 1.1780 -
- LONG TERM PRICE RANGE REMAINS 1.1950 - 1.1750 -
- HOLDING THE LOWER RANGE OF 1.1860 - 1.1780 IS DUE TO THE STRONGER USD MONETARY UPDATES AND SENTIMENT -
SPOTLIGHT
- ANY DISAPPOINTMENT IN THE INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS REPORT WOULD NOT MATCH THE IDEA FED WILL TAPER SOON AS IT WOULD BE UNLIKE THEIR GOAL OF EMPLOYMENT AND MAY CAUSE A CHANGE OF THE SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE TO 1.1900 - 1.1800 AS WAS MENTIONED IN MY PREVIOUS IDEAS -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
FOMC Member Clarida speech takeaways
"Starting Fed rate hikes in 2023 is entirely consistent with US central bank’s framework."
"Made progress toward goals since setting ‘substantial further progress’ bar for taper of asset purchases in December 2020."
"In coming meetings, Fed will again assess progress toward our goals, will give advance notice of taper."
(ANY SOONER ADVANCE NOTICE OF TAPER MEANS SOONER LESS PRINTING USD, AND EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED HAWKISH FED)
2- ECB monetary policy updates >>
- There is no rush to signal the future of its pandemic bond buying according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks. With almost 600 billion euros left to spend and the program running at least through the end of March, he says it would be much too early for a decision on whether to extend or phase out purchases - (MEANS EXTENDED BOND BUYING, LONGER DOVISH, EUR NEGATIVE).
CONCLUSION
- THE LONGER DOVISH, EXTENDING BOND BUYING ECB, AND THE FED CLARIDA SIGALING SOONER ADVANCE NOTICE OF TAPER CAUSED A REJECTION AT 1.1900 -
- ACCORDINGLY NEW SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE 1.1860 - 1.1780 -
- LONG TERM PRICE RANGE REMAINS 1.1950 - 1.1750 -
- HOLDING THE LOWER RANGE OF 1.1860 - 1.1780 IS DUE TO THE STRONGER USD MONETARY UPDATES AND SENTIMENT -
SPOTLIGHT
- ANY DISAPPOINTMENT IN THE INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS REPORT WOULD NOT MATCH THE IDEA FED WILL TAPER SOON AS IT WOULD BE UNLIKE THEIR GOAL OF EMPLOYMENT AND MAY CAUSE A CHANGE OF THE SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE TO 1.1900 - 1.1800 AS WAS MENTIONED IN MY PREVIOUS IDEAS -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
Note
MODEST DROP IN INITITAL JOBLESS CLAIMS TO SUPPORT AND CONFIRM THE BEARISH STANCE AND THE IDEA OF THE SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE 1.1860 - 1.1780
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