Channel and Drop
Updated
I've seen this one too many times...
Price is making a tight climbing channel, but eventually once it reaches near the top of the last highs, it will fall out (usually)
Looking at about 4.75 r, using a 15 pip stop, order placed at 1.07193, 1.07347 for the stop, and target the larger channel line from the previous downtrend, 1.06289 or around the last area, as the longer price takes to get there, the deeper it should go.
Using the middle area between the two most recent highs for entry, and stopping above the highest high made, expecting a longer term double top style pattern to be formed and pushed down into the lower depth of the daily level finally.
Price is making a tight climbing channel, but eventually once it reaches near the top of the last highs, it will fall out (usually)
Looking at about 4.75 r, using a 15 pip stop, order placed at 1.07193, 1.07347 for the stop, and target the larger channel line from the previous downtrend, 1.06289 or around the last area, as the longer price takes to get there, the deeper it should go.
Using the middle area between the two most recent highs for entry, and stopping above the highest high made, expecting a longer term double top style pattern to be formed and pushed down into the lower depth of the daily level finally.
Note
Misunderstood the "screenshot" settings, this must not be the screenshot that set references.Using a sell limit at 1.07193
Stop set : 1.073347
Target (roughly) 1.063-2
I'll have to be sure to use the short/long tool for limit orders in the future
Note
Channel is a little steep, connect the rising highs of this leg and clone to the bottom, makes a better rising channel and lines up with how fast id expect price to rise with lack of volume until the London session, when entry should be expectedNote
Order adjustment to 1.0727, stop at 1.0743. Looks like a double bottom is forming at a key level, anticipating the w pattern being formed will fail at the top
Trade active
Order filledNote
Strong rejection, a stop out does not end the idea, would still look short if hitNote
Getting follow through on price action, current target still 1.0628, but if it doesn't snap down there, tomorrow the target will go a little further. Currently set for 6.39 rNote
Leaving everything alone...Looking a small term amount back, this does look to favor long entry, but, context tells another storyline
Taking more data from the left we have a triple tap top that's formed with the third tap just under the stop, but further back we have a retest of the channel that did not break the high before coming back down again, despite trying a few times. The current action does not change my mind because of the larger picture, so just letting it go.
Target may remain, as it's just short of another key level, which I would expect retrace/retest to the 660s-80s before finally dropping out to the 520-30s
Note
Above is a good reason to think most longs will fail and trade should be good, everything looks good for now....Note
The 1.071 level has become extremely relevant again despite being cut through before. I would expect this level to hold price down, and even a liquidity run should dip back below.Should price come above and look to hold, stop will get moved to break even and trade will continue to be held expecting the sellers to continue coming in, but cleared if they run out of power
Note
18 hour day finally caught up to me... Trade still going but don't have any faith in it, at this point. Letting it goTrade closed: stop reached
Stopped out
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