EURUSD_Technical_Fundamental Mixed_04012019Weekly
EURO exchange rates will depend on the following factors this week -
April 1:
i. PMI - Manufacturing (Spain, Itay, France, Germany, Greece)
ii. Unemployment rate (Austria, Italy)
iii. CPI (Composite+Core)-(Eurozone)
For recent Brexit tension and other related issues, the manufacturing PMI has decreased significantly except for Italy for the last few months. It can be seen as a negative signal for the Euro.
The unemployment rate in Italy has decreased at a constant rate for the last 4 months. But as new business opening decreased by the time, I am expecting no change this time. Austria is doing good in unemployment for a few months though it is higher than average since 1960.
CPI in the eurozone is in a downtrend since October 2018. After consecutive falls last month it was able to gain some of it's loss. On the present situation, it's hard to forecast.
The overall result will greatly depend on the result from Germany and France. Though the primary forecast is Bearish, a good result from Germany and France may turn the trend around.
April 2:
i. Unemployment rate (Eurozone)
As Brexit is confirmed now, unemployment of eurozone is supposed to increase. This will lead EURO to bearish.
Overall daily forecast: Bearish
April 3:
i. PMI (Eurozone)
ii. Retail Sales (YoY) - (Eurozone)
Unsure about the market. But higher results from these two reports will push EURO towards North.
April 4:
i. Factory Orders (MoM)- (Germany)
ii. Unemployment change (Spain)
Germany had the steepest fall in factory orders last month. In my opinion, it was for tension around Brexit. It may keep falling for some time. On the other hand unemployment in Spain may show a good result.
So in this day, a good result in German factory order may give a further bullish push to Euro.
April 5:
i. Industrial Production (MoM)- (Germany)
Germany’s industrial Production fell 0.5% last month which was severe. A good result on April 4 may bring good result this day for Euro.
Overall weekly forecast: May stay bearish weeklong with some uncertain moments.
US DOLLAR
i. PMI - Manufacturing
ii. Retail Sales
iii. Inventory
iv. Employment/Unemployment
v. Non-Farm reports (NFP/Unemployement/EMployment Change)
PMI is leading the indicator of economic health. It has a direct connection with economic condition. This composite(PMI) data is clearing the top level business institute health. If a business institute is doing well then the economic health will get better. If PMI (COMPOSITE) percentage is better than expectation, the currency will go for bullish movement. If it is not, then the currency will do the opposite.
The Retail Sales shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Generally speaking, the positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the currency. The release of the Retail Sales report may have an impact on dollar quotes. A slowdown in the growth of retail sales shows that consumers have reduced their spending level. This may lead to a decline in economic activity and have a negative effect on dollar quotes.
This week is going to be the influential week of the month as most of the news published are key indicators such as NFP and Non-Farm Employment and unemployment reports are going to be published and also backed by FOMC & FED speeches. As the results of the report would not only drive the market but the driving force direction will be directly dependant on previous reports and overall economic condition. For now, the fog is yet to be cleared.
Technical
MACD is trending below zero levels, showing an almost mature Bear run
Trend channel formed in D1
Standing at minor Support level 1.12000 on the opening day of the week.
If fundamental factors drive the price down for a bearish breakout below support levels,
EURUSD might go towards 1.11300
If fundamental factors drive the price to bounce from the support level, it might go up till 1.13600 Level.
April 1:
i. PMI - Manufacturing (Spain, Itay, France, Germany, Greece)
ii. Unemployment rate (Austria, Italy)
iii. CPI (Composite+Core)-(Eurozone)
For recent Brexit tension and other related issues, the manufacturing PMI has decreased significantly except for Italy for the last few months. It can be seen as a negative signal for the Euro.
The unemployment rate in Italy has decreased at a constant rate for the last 4 months. But as new business opening decreased by the time, I am expecting no change this time. Austria is doing good in unemployment for a few months though it is higher than average since 1960.
CPI in the eurozone is in a downtrend since October 2018. After consecutive falls last month it was able to gain some of it's loss. On the present situation, it's hard to forecast.
The overall result will greatly depend on the result from Germany and France. Though the primary forecast is Bearish, a good result from Germany and France may turn the trend around.
April 2:
i. Unemployment rate (Eurozone)
As Brexit is confirmed now, unemployment of eurozone is supposed to increase. This will lead EURO to bearish.
Overall daily forecast: Bearish
April 3:
i. PMI (Eurozone)
ii. Retail Sales (YoY) - (Eurozone)
Unsure about the market. But higher results from these two reports will push EURO towards North.
April 4:
i. Factory Orders (MoM)- (Germany)
ii. Unemployment change (Spain)
Germany had the steepest fall in factory orders last month. In my opinion, it was for tension around Brexit. It may keep falling for some time. On the other hand unemployment in Spain may show a good result.
So in this day, a good result in German factory order may give a further bullish push to Euro.
April 5:
i. Industrial Production (MoM)- (Germany)
Germany’s industrial Production fell 0.5% last month which was severe. A good result on April 4 may bring good result this day for Euro.
Overall weekly forecast: May stay bearish weeklong with some uncertain moments.
US DOLLAR
i. PMI - Manufacturing
ii. Retail Sales
iii. Inventory
iv. Employment/Unemployment
v. Non-Farm reports (NFP/Unemployement/EMployment Change)
PMI is leading the indicator of economic health. It has a direct connection with economic condition. This composite(PMI) data is clearing the top level business institute health. If a business institute is doing well then the economic health will get better. If PMI (COMPOSITE) percentage is better than expectation, the currency will go for bullish movement. If it is not, then the currency will do the opposite.
The Retail Sales shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Generally speaking, the positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the currency. The release of the Retail Sales report may have an impact on dollar quotes. A slowdown in the growth of retail sales shows that consumers have reduced their spending level. This may lead to a decline in economic activity and have a negative effect on dollar quotes.
This week is going to be the influential week of the month as most of the news published are key indicators such as NFP and Non-Farm Employment and unemployment reports are going to be published and also backed by FOMC & FED speeches. As the results of the report would not only drive the market but the driving force direction will be directly dependant on previous reports and overall economic condition. For now, the fog is yet to be cleared.
Technical
MACD is trending below zero levels, showing an almost mature Bear run
Trend channel formed in D1
Standing at minor Support level 1.12000 on the opening day of the week.
If fundamental factors drive the price down for a bearish breakout below support levels,
EURUSD might go towards 1.11300
If fundamental factors drive the price to bounce from the support level, it might go up till 1.13600 Level.
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