Timeframe: 15m
Date: May 18, 2025
Tools Used: Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, SNR Zones, Awesome Oscillator (AO)
Bias: Bearish
Confluence Zone for Entry: 1.618 – 2.618 Fib Extension
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
🌀 Elliott Wave Count:
We are currently tracking a 5-wave impulsive bearish structure on EUR/USD.
Wave (1), (2), and (3) have been completed.
Price is now forming a corrective Wave (4) which appears to be completing near a key SNR zone and Fibonacci confluence area.
Based on the wave structure and market behavior, Wave (5) is expected to follow after this correction completes, targeting a new lower low.
📏 Fibonacci Confluence:
Wave (4) retracement aligns with several Fibonacci extension levels:
1.618 (1.11663) – This is the first key resistance zone, coinciding with prior support turned resistance (SNR) and the AO convergence point.
2.618 (1.11892) – Acts as the extended potential reversal point if price overshoots the 1.618 zone.
These fib zones create a tight area of interest for potential entries with stop-loss placement above 2.618, targeting Wave (5) completion near 1.1120 or below.
🧱 SNR (Support & Resistance) Zone:
The area between 1.11600 – 1.11900 has historically acted as a supply zone. Price reacted sharply from here during prior bearish moves.
Break of microstructure around 1.11464 – 1.11428 would further confirm bearish intent and potential early Wave (5) entry.
📉 AO (Awesome Oscillator) – Bearish Convergence (H1 + M15):
There is a clear bearish convergence on both H1 and M15:
Price formed lower lows, while AO histogram also made higher lows, indicating momentum is still bearish despite the corrective bounce.
This convergence supports the idea that Wave (4) is just a temporary correction, not a trend reversal.
🎯 Trade Plan (Hypothetical Example):
Sell Zone (Entry): Between 1.11663 – 1.11892 (Fib 1.618 to 2.618 + SNR zone)
Confirmation: Bearish structure break (1.11464 – 1.11428)
Stop Loss: Above 1.11920 (just above 2.618 level)
Target: 1.11200 area (Wave (5) projection)
📌 Summary:
This setup offers a clean multi-confluence short opportunity, aligning with:
Elliott Wave structure (Wave (5) pending)
Fibonacci extensions (1.618 – 2.618)
SNR resistance zone
AO bearish convergence on both H1 and M15
⚠️ Wait for structural confirmation and always manage risk carefully.
Traders should wait for confirmation from price action (e.g. a break below 1.11428) before entering. Risk management is essential as fib extensions can occasionally overshoot before price turns.
#EURUSD #ForexAnalysis #ElliottWave #Wave5Setup #AOConvergence #AwesomeOscillator
#FibConfluence #SNRZone #PriceAction #BearishSetup #WaveTheory #TechnicalAnalysis
#SmartMoney #StructureBreak #ForexSetup #MomentumTrading #MultiTimeframeAnalysis
#FXTrading #MarketStructure #ShortOpportunity
Date: May 18, 2025
Tools Used: Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, SNR Zones, Awesome Oscillator (AO)
Bias: Bearish
Confluence Zone for Entry: 1.618 – 2.618 Fib Extension
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
🌀 Elliott Wave Count:
We are currently tracking a 5-wave impulsive bearish structure on EUR/USD.
Wave (1), (2), and (3) have been completed.
Price is now forming a corrective Wave (4) which appears to be completing near a key SNR zone and Fibonacci confluence area.
Based on the wave structure and market behavior, Wave (5) is expected to follow after this correction completes, targeting a new lower low.
📏 Fibonacci Confluence:
Wave (4) retracement aligns with several Fibonacci extension levels:
1.618 (1.11663) – This is the first key resistance zone, coinciding with prior support turned resistance (SNR) and the AO convergence point.
2.618 (1.11892) – Acts as the extended potential reversal point if price overshoots the 1.618 zone.
These fib zones create a tight area of interest for potential entries with stop-loss placement above 2.618, targeting Wave (5) completion near 1.1120 or below.
🧱 SNR (Support & Resistance) Zone:
The area between 1.11600 – 1.11900 has historically acted as a supply zone. Price reacted sharply from here during prior bearish moves.
Break of microstructure around 1.11464 – 1.11428 would further confirm bearish intent and potential early Wave (5) entry.
📉 AO (Awesome Oscillator) – Bearish Convergence (H1 + M15):
There is a clear bearish convergence on both H1 and M15:
Price formed lower lows, while AO histogram also made higher lows, indicating momentum is still bearish despite the corrective bounce.
This convergence supports the idea that Wave (4) is just a temporary correction, not a trend reversal.
🎯 Trade Plan (Hypothetical Example):
Sell Zone (Entry): Between 1.11663 – 1.11892 (Fib 1.618 to 2.618 + SNR zone)
Confirmation: Bearish structure break (1.11464 – 1.11428)
Stop Loss: Above 1.11920 (just above 2.618 level)
Target: 1.11200 area (Wave (5) projection)
📌 Summary:
This setup offers a clean multi-confluence short opportunity, aligning with:
Elliott Wave structure (Wave (5) pending)
Fibonacci extensions (1.618 – 2.618)
SNR resistance zone
AO bearish convergence on both H1 and M15
⚠️ Wait for structural confirmation and always manage risk carefully.
Traders should wait for confirmation from price action (e.g. a break below 1.11428) before entering. Risk management is essential as fib extensions can occasionally overshoot before price turns.
#EURUSD #ForexAnalysis #ElliottWave #Wave5Setup #AOConvergence #AwesomeOscillator
#FibConfluence #SNRZone #PriceAction #BearishSetup #WaveTheory #TechnicalAnalysis
#SmartMoney #StructureBreak #ForexSetup #MomentumTrading #MultiTimeframeAnalysis
#FXTrading #MarketStructure #ShortOpportunity
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.