Euro / U.S. DollarShort
EURUSD H1 17/12/2024 - SELL below 1.0505 1.0480
EURUSD H1 17/12/2024 - Bearish pressure by macroeconomic fundamentals and a dovish ECB outlook
Technical Analysis Summary
D1 (Daily Chart)
Trend: Bearish with price trading well below the 200-SMA and stuck below the 20-EMA at 1.0540.
Indicators:
RSI: At 40.64, indicating bearish momentum and approaching oversold conditions.
Stochastic: Bearish crossover below 40, showing potential for further downside.
MACD: Negative histogram and signal line, confirming a bearish outlook.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0530 (20-EMA), 1.0560 (near-term swing high).
Support: 1.0480, 1.0460, and a broader target of 1.0435.
H4 (4-Hour Chart)
Trend: Consolidation in a bearish channel, with price unable to break above the 50-SMA.
Indicators:
RSI: At 42.81, reflecting bearish momentum.
Stochastic: Bearish crossover heading down towards oversold levels.
MACD: Bearish histogram, confirming bearish continuation.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0515, 1.0535 (50-SMA).
Support: 1.0485, 1.0460.
H1 (Hourly Chart)
Trend: Bearish, with price below the Ichimoku cloud, 50-SMA, and 200-SMA. Bearish momentum is strong after a recent failed attempt to recover.
Indicators:
RSI: At 38.13, signaling bearish momentum below 40.
Stochastic: Near 10, indicating oversold conditions and suggesting a potential short-term pullback.
MACD: Bearish histogram with a downward signal line.
ATR: At 10 pips, reflecting moderate volatility.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0505 (minor), 1.0530 (20-EMA).
Support: 1.0485, 1.0460, 1.0435.
M30 (30-Minute Chart)
Trend: Downtrend with price consolidating near support at 1.0485.
Indicators:
RSI: At 34.85, approaching oversold conditions.
Stochastic: At 12, suggesting a minor pullback may occur before further declines.
MACD: Negative momentum remains intact.
Correlated Financial Instruments
US Dollar Index (DXY):
DXY remains firm above 106, supporting a bearish EUR/USD outlook. USD strength continues as inflation data backs expectations of steady Fed policy.
Gold (XAU/USD):
Gold remains under pressure, further confirming USD strength.
Trade Plan for EUR/USD H1
Trade Setup 1: Bearish Continuation on Retracement
Rationale: Given the clear bearish momentum and inability to break key resistance levels, a retracement toward resistance offers a short-selling opportunity.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0505–1.0510 (near minor resistance).
Stop-Loss: 1.0535 (above the 20-EMA on H1).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0485.
TP2: 1.0460.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Trade Setup 2: Breakout Short Below 1.0485
Rationale: A clean break below 1.0485 support will confirm a bearish continuation towards the next key levels.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0480 (on breakout).
Stop-Loss: 1.0505 (above breakout resistance).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0460.
TP2: 1.0435.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Trade Setup 3: Intraday Scalping Short (M30–H1 Levels)
Rationale: If a short-term pullback occurs, use M30 chart resistance as an entry.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0500 (psychological level).
Stop-Loss: 1.0515.
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0485.
TP2: 1.0475.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.5.
Technical Analysis Summary
D1 (Daily Chart)
Trend: Bearish with price trading well below the 200-SMA and stuck below the 20-EMA at 1.0540.
Indicators:
RSI: At 40.64, indicating bearish momentum and approaching oversold conditions.
Stochastic: Bearish crossover below 40, showing potential for further downside.
MACD: Negative histogram and signal line, confirming a bearish outlook.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0530 (20-EMA), 1.0560 (near-term swing high).
Support: 1.0480, 1.0460, and a broader target of 1.0435.
H4 (4-Hour Chart)
Trend: Consolidation in a bearish channel, with price unable to break above the 50-SMA.
Indicators:
RSI: At 42.81, reflecting bearish momentum.
Stochastic: Bearish crossover heading down towards oversold levels.
MACD: Bearish histogram, confirming bearish continuation.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0515, 1.0535 (50-SMA).
Support: 1.0485, 1.0460.
H1 (Hourly Chart)
Trend: Bearish, with price below the Ichimoku cloud, 50-SMA, and 200-SMA. Bearish momentum is strong after a recent failed attempt to recover.
Indicators:
RSI: At 38.13, signaling bearish momentum below 40.
Stochastic: Near 10, indicating oversold conditions and suggesting a potential short-term pullback.
MACD: Bearish histogram with a downward signal line.
ATR: At 10 pips, reflecting moderate volatility.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0505 (minor), 1.0530 (20-EMA).
Support: 1.0485, 1.0460, 1.0435.
M30 (30-Minute Chart)
Trend: Downtrend with price consolidating near support at 1.0485.
Indicators:
RSI: At 34.85, approaching oversold conditions.
Stochastic: At 12, suggesting a minor pullback may occur before further declines.
MACD: Negative momentum remains intact.
Correlated Financial Instruments
US Dollar Index (DXY):
DXY remains firm above 106, supporting a bearish EUR/USD outlook. USD strength continues as inflation data backs expectations of steady Fed policy.
Gold (XAU/USD):
Gold remains under pressure, further confirming USD strength.
Trade Plan for EUR/USD H1
Trade Setup 1: Bearish Continuation on Retracement
Rationale: Given the clear bearish momentum and inability to break key resistance levels, a retracement toward resistance offers a short-selling opportunity.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0505–1.0510 (near minor resistance).
Stop-Loss: 1.0535 (above the 20-EMA on H1).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0485.
TP2: 1.0460.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Trade Setup 2: Breakout Short Below 1.0485
Rationale: A clean break below 1.0485 support will confirm a bearish continuation towards the next key levels.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0480 (on breakout).
Stop-Loss: 1.0505 (above breakout resistance).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0460.
TP2: 1.0435.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Trade Setup 3: Intraday Scalping Short (M30–H1 Levels)
Rationale: If a short-term pullback occurs, use M30 chart resistance as an entry.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0500 (psychological level).
Stop-Loss: 1.0515.
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0485.
TP2: 1.0475.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.5.
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