Professional gambling on Short on FOMC news release
Updated
- Resistance levels above:
Near the current price level, we have one 4H resistance, one 1D order block, and one 1D resistance above, they all have potentials to be the trend reversing area, but do we care exactly where the trend will reverse? No, we don't, because we will wait for downward confirmation signal on lower timeframe to confirm that the trend might start to reverse, as long as one of the resistance level has been reached. - Strategy explanation:
This Short strategy is high risk with high reward. What we need as pre-conditions for this strategy to pull off are: On higher time frame, we need to first reach any of the resistance levels so that liquidity needed for downward push is obtained. On lower timeframe, we need to see a local downward Break of Structure(BOS) confirmation signal to form around 30 minutes prior to the FOMC news release, and we need to have a clear order block entry point formed off of any timeframe between 3min to 10min. The Stop Loss can be set a bit above this entry order block. If a local pullback occurs to that order block few minutes prior to the news release, then place your Short order. - Cautions:
Remember, only these conditions are met, then we can short, otherwise the market has much higher probability to swing up and down randomly. Also, do NOT risk a lot on such trade, it is a gambling trade after all.
On Wednesday, before the late FOMC news release, it can be very hard to trade, probably all big sharks are waiting on the news, so the market lacks liquidity to move, and they are very very good at settings traps around such clear HTF levels that everybody can see. Moreover, the market has been trending up furiously in recent days, I can sense that the strength will deplete before those HTF resistance levels. So, be careful to trade on Wednesday.
If the best scenario happens, where you see a big candle running down when the news has just released, I recommend you to exit on the TP levels I marked on the chart. Because we still don't know if a real downtrend has begun or it is just a quick downward push to grab more liquidity in order to continue the uptrend till some resistance level further up. I mean, it's not very possible for such strong uptrend to reverse without a long lasting consolidation area forms in advance.
Order cancelled
The FOMC news release will happen in 15 minutes, and yet none of the HTF resistance levels has been reached. So, I would guess that the market will continue push up or start swinging up and down randomly when the news is released.
Mission aborted !!! We do NOT gamble on FOMC today !!!
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