🎓 EDU 5 of 20: FUNDAMENTALS ARE THE HOLY GRAIL OF TRADING
Hello traders! In the previous Educational Post (4 of 20) we learned what FIST (Fundamentals, Intermarket, Sentiment, Technicals) is about and why you need to use this trading framework in your trading. I strongly believe that incorporating a range of analytical disciplines returns better trading results than focusing only on one tool. This is how big players play the market, and this is how you should trade too - if you want to become a consistently profitable trader.
Most retail traders put too much emphasis on technical analysis. The majority of traders even trade solely with technical tools. In an earlier post, we have covered why you shouldn't trade only on technicals, so this might be a good time to revisit that lesson and read it if you haven't already.
Most retail traders will wait for a signal like a pullback, MA crossover, overbought/oversold RSI conditions, MACD, and follow candlestick patterns and chart patterns to enter into a trade. Guess what? That's an easy way to blow your trading account! If you look at your broker's homepage, you'll see a sentence stating how many retail traders lose money. I have yet to find a retail broker where less than 20-30% of traders are profitable. The rest, 70-80% of clients, lose money on a consistent basis. I bet that, of those who lose money, the majority use technical strategies and/or have poor risk management skills.
Institutional traders don't open a trade based on MA crossovers or extreme RSI levels. They follow a range of fundamental signals, analyze correlations between different asset classes, and follow the general market sentiment. Technical analysis accounts for 5% of their work. Technical levels are only used to determine entry and exit points - ONLY after they already know in which direction they want to trade.
Fundamental Analysis
Unlike technical analysis which is based on the premise that history repeats itself, markets like to trend, and all available news is instantly discounted in the price, the fundamental analysis aims to explore the underlying factors of why a market is going up or down. Technical analysis is all about charts. Technicians are not interested in the reasons behind price movements, which often creates an environment where technicals alone produce fake signals. I bet many of you have seen that: a failed triangle breakout, a failed trendline breakout, or the RSI remaining in oversold conditions as the price continues to trade lower.
Fundamental analysis can be grouped into two groups: macro fundamentals, and micro fundamentals.
In trading, macro fundamentals refer to the bigger picture fundamentals: interest rates, economic growth, inflation rates, and labor market conditions.
Micro fundamentals are more subtle, but can also have a large influence on the price. Those are comments by central bankers, news, market indicators (PMIs, CPIs...), political developments in a country, etc.
Central Bank Meetings
My students often ask me whether they should follow central bank meetings and press conferences. My answer: If you want to make money trading, then yes! Nothing has such a large impact on prices as central bank meetings and interest rate decisions. And if you do your homework, you can profit from those meetings most of the time. Follow press conferences that are scheduled shortly after the meeting and listen to the Q&A session, and read the entire meeting report once it's out. You'll find it astonishing how much you can learn from those reports - and how easy it can be to make money in the markets.
There are eight major central banks in FX: US Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Canada (BoC), Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Create a bookmark for each of those central bank websites, and read their reports and articles at least once a week. I like to do it on weekends.
You can even have very profitable trades after the Central Bank meeting is over and the market has already reacted to the news. Commercial banks and other sell-side institutions will often drain liquidity in the markets to purchase a currency at discount after a major news report or interest rate decision. If you know how to identify this liquidity drain, you'll be able to catch amazing trades in the future.
Thanks for reading and stay tuned for Part 6: What Market Indicators do I Need to Follow?
Most retail traders put too much emphasis on technical analysis. The majority of traders even trade solely with technical tools. In an earlier post, we have covered why you shouldn't trade only on technicals, so this might be a good time to revisit that lesson and read it if you haven't already.
Most retail traders will wait for a signal like a pullback, MA crossover, overbought/oversold RSI conditions, MACD, and follow candlestick patterns and chart patterns to enter into a trade. Guess what? That's an easy way to blow your trading account! If you look at your broker's homepage, you'll see a sentence stating how many retail traders lose money. I have yet to find a retail broker where less than 20-30% of traders are profitable. The rest, 70-80% of clients, lose money on a consistent basis. I bet that, of those who lose money, the majority use technical strategies and/or have poor risk management skills.
Institutional traders don't open a trade based on MA crossovers or extreme RSI levels. They follow a range of fundamental signals, analyze correlations between different asset classes, and follow the general market sentiment. Technical analysis accounts for 5% of their work. Technical levels are only used to determine entry and exit points - ONLY after they already know in which direction they want to trade.
Fundamental Analysis
Unlike technical analysis which is based on the premise that history repeats itself, markets like to trend, and all available news is instantly discounted in the price, the fundamental analysis aims to explore the underlying factors of why a market is going up or down. Technical analysis is all about charts. Technicians are not interested in the reasons behind price movements, which often creates an environment where technicals alone produce fake signals. I bet many of you have seen that: a failed triangle breakout, a failed trendline breakout, or the RSI remaining in oversold conditions as the price continues to trade lower.
Fundamental analysis can be grouped into two groups: macro fundamentals, and micro fundamentals.
In trading, macro fundamentals refer to the bigger picture fundamentals: interest rates, economic growth, inflation rates, and labor market conditions.
Micro fundamentals are more subtle, but can also have a large influence on the price. Those are comments by central bankers, news, market indicators (PMIs, CPIs...), political developments in a country, etc.
Central Bank Meetings
My students often ask me whether they should follow central bank meetings and press conferences. My answer: If you want to make money trading, then yes! Nothing has such a large impact on prices as central bank meetings and interest rate decisions. And if you do your homework, you can profit from those meetings most of the time. Follow press conferences that are scheduled shortly after the meeting and listen to the Q&A session, and read the entire meeting report once it's out. You'll find it astonishing how much you can learn from those reports - and how easy it can be to make money in the markets.
There are eight major central banks in FX: US Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Canada (BoC), Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Create a bookmark for each of those central bank websites, and read their reports and articles at least once a week. I like to do it on weekends.
You can even have very profitable trades after the Central Bank meeting is over and the market has already reacted to the news. Commercial banks and other sell-side institutions will often drain liquidity in the markets to purchase a currency at discount after a major news report or interest rate decision. If you know how to identify this liquidity drain, you'll be able to catch amazing trades in the future.
Thanks for reading and stay tuned for Part 6: What Market Indicators do I Need to Follow?
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