ECB and FOMC data impact EURUSD
The EURUSD cross is in the spotlight today, with the expectation of key Eurozone unemployment and inflation data. Although forecasts suggest stability, we could be surprised by unexpected optimism. Meanwhile, industrial production data could show a slight decline, especially after yesterday's German figures slightly below expectations. In the US, mortgage debt numbers and the unemployment rate are expected to be unfavorable due to the slowdown in consumer spending that is starting to become palpable with rising unemployment rates and large corporations tightening overall headcount even in the top companies of the major market indices. In addition, we will be watching for FOMC statements from Powell, Goolsbee, Barr and Kugler, which could reveal possible +0.25 rate adjustments.
On the other hand, Q1 consumer credit in March showed growth of 4.7%, and revolving card debt of 7.6%, while non-revolving credit was at 3.6%, marking us that the household debt ratio is quite solid.
FED Consumer Credit Data: federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm
As we have already reported in other analyses, the FEDWATCH CME tool marks a possible trend change in rates to the upside by mid-June: cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html.
From a chart perspective, EURUSD has experienced a price contraction from $1.9440 to $1.07238 testing twice between the 1st and 2nd of April without excess volume since the end of March, showing a clear downtrend. The RSI is in a neutral zone, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers with a value that marks us 45.19% being the average 58.49%. This keeps it in a price zone that we have already marked in previous analysis between 1.09997 and 1.06830.
It is expected that the pair will try to regain its control point at 1.08879, although the economic uncertainty and the lack of domestic consumption and the reduction in exports on both sides of the Atlantic could keep the market sideways until June and this will make the EURUSD try to regain this trading zone more frequently in a shorter time frame. If the US market outlook does not materialize, the price could continue to try to break the range to the downside.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
On the other hand, Q1 consumer credit in March showed growth of 4.7%, and revolving card debt of 7.6%, while non-revolving credit was at 3.6%, marking us that the household debt ratio is quite solid.
FED Consumer Credit Data: federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm
As we have already reported in other analyses, the FEDWATCH CME tool marks a possible trend change in rates to the upside by mid-June: cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html.
From a chart perspective, EURUSD has experienced a price contraction from $1.9440 to $1.07238 testing twice between the 1st and 2nd of April without excess volume since the end of March, showing a clear downtrend. The RSI is in a neutral zone, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers with a value that marks us 45.19% being the average 58.49%. This keeps it in a price zone that we have already marked in previous analysis between 1.09997 and 1.06830.
It is expected that the pair will try to regain its control point at 1.08879, although the economic uncertainty and the lack of domestic consumption and the reduction in exports on both sides of the Atlantic could keep the market sideways until June and this will make the EURUSD try to regain this trading zone more frequently in a shorter time frame. If the US market outlook does not materialize, the price could continue to try to break the range to the downside.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
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