EUR/USD 1H Analysis: EMA 200 Retest & Fibonacci Pullback – Key L

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Key Observations:
Ascending Wedge Breakout & Price Surge

The price broke out of a wedge pattern (green shaded area) with strong bullish momentum.
A strong rally led to a new local high (~1.0489).
Fibonacci Retracement Levels

The price is pulling back from the high, and Fibonacci retracement levels are marked.
Key levels to watch:
0.618 (1.04385) – Strong support
0.5 (1.04238) – Moderate support
0.382 (1.04091) – First level of reaction
EMA 200 Retest (~1.04467)

The 200 EMA (blue line) is acting as dynamic support.
The expectation (noted on the chart) is that price may touch or react at the EMA 200.
If it holds, it could trigger another bullish push.
If it breaks below EMA 200, further downside toward Fib 0.618 or 0.786 retracement is possible.
Potential Bearish Rejection (Red Arrows)

The red arrows suggest a possible lower high formation, meaning the price could reject from EMA 200 and start a deeper drop.
Volume Analysis

Increasing volume suggests strong participation.
If volume remains high near EMA 200, we might see a breakout or a strong bounce.
Potential Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Case (Buy Trade)
If price holds above EMA 200 (~1.04467) and forms a bullish reaction, a long trade could target:
First target: 1.0489 (previous high).
Second target: 1.0500+ (psychological level).
Stop Loss: Below 1.0435 (below Fib 0.618).
Bearish Case (Sell Trade)
If price fails at EMA 200 and forms a lower high, it could drop toward:
First target: 1.0430 (Fib 0.5).
Second target: 1.0409 (Fib 0.382).
Third target: 1.0390 (Fib 0.236).
Stop Loss: Above 1.0460 (above EMA 200).
Conclusion:
EMA 200 is the key level to watch.
Bullish bias above EMA 200; Bearish bias below.
If EMA 200 holds, buying could be a good strategy.
If it fails, further downside is expected.
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