EUR/USD:Comprehensive Fundamental Analysis and Next Target Level
Updated
The EUR/USD remains under pressure as it approaches the 1.0700 level, influenced by several factors contributing to a cautious market mood. The downward revision of Germany's Q1 GDP and the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling have weighed on the pair, bolstering the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar. Traders are closely watching upcoming ECB speeches and key US data releases.
The EUR/USD has experienced a consecutive decline over the past two days, marking the lowest daily close in two months. The strength of the US Dollar continues to drive the pair downwards, supported by higher Treasury yields and risk aversion sentiment. Although there was a temporary recovery during the European session, the pair retreated back towards the 1.0750 level.
On Wednesday, economic data revealed a slight decline in Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for May, dropping to 91.7 from April's revised figure of 93.4 (previously reported as 93.6). This reading fell short of market expectations set at 93, but its impact on the Euro was limited. Germany is also set to release a new estimate of Q1 GDP, expected to remain at 0%, on Thursday.
The recently published FOMC minutes unveiled a division among officials regarding the future path of interest rates. While some members advocated for further rate hikes, others expressed doubts about the necessity of additional tightening after the current meeting. The minutes reflected a general sense of uncertainty among participants regarding the appropriate level of policy tightening. Although the US Dollar experienced a slight weakening following the minutes, it retained most of its daily gains.
Market sentiment has further deteriorated due to concerns about a sluggish growth outlook and ongoing negotiations surrounding the debt ceiling in the United States. While talks continue in Washington, a deal has not yet been reached. Thursday's economic reports in the US include Jobless Claims, which will be closely monitored. The EUR/USD has some support in the 1.0715/25 range, but if breached, further support is limited until the 1.0500/0515 area. This downside risk remains unless the US April core PCE deflator indicates a substantial decline. Our next target point is set at 1.6500.
The EUR/USD has experienced a consecutive decline over the past two days, marking the lowest daily close in two months. The strength of the US Dollar continues to drive the pair downwards, supported by higher Treasury yields and risk aversion sentiment. Although there was a temporary recovery during the European session, the pair retreated back towards the 1.0750 level.
On Wednesday, economic data revealed a slight decline in Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for May, dropping to 91.7 from April's revised figure of 93.4 (previously reported as 93.6). This reading fell short of market expectations set at 93, but its impact on the Euro was limited. Germany is also set to release a new estimate of Q1 GDP, expected to remain at 0%, on Thursday.
The recently published FOMC minutes unveiled a division among officials regarding the future path of interest rates. While some members advocated for further rate hikes, others expressed doubts about the necessity of additional tightening after the current meeting. The minutes reflected a general sense of uncertainty among participants regarding the appropriate level of policy tightening. Although the US Dollar experienced a slight weakening following the minutes, it retained most of its daily gains.
Market sentiment has further deteriorated due to concerns about a sluggish growth outlook and ongoing negotiations surrounding the debt ceiling in the United States. While talks continue in Washington, a deal has not yet been reached. Thursday's economic reports in the US include Jobless Claims, which will be closely monitored. The EUR/USD has some support in the 1.0715/25 range, but if breached, further support is limited until the 1.0500/0515 area. This downside risk remains unless the US April core PCE deflator indicates a substantial decline. Our next target point is set at 1.6500.
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