$EURUSD - Long Term (6 Months?) - Rethinking Retracement
i use the CoT Report for a lot of guidance. If you know how the commercial/central banks are trading, then you have a pretty goof idea as to where the market is going to go. As mentioned in many of my ideas, they started shorting back in March. My belief if they stacked a lot of orders at that March high, know it would eventually get lower than that point.
The First week of September is when EURUSD made it's most recent high, and so far, high of the year, which is typical for about this time of the year if you look at yearly cycles. The commercials were at the deepest in shorts at this time and started lessening the shorts shortly after. Just two weeks ago we did see the massive sell off. Last week we started to see the retracement, more longs were added.
Now what I did whas draw a fib from the highest point in September to the High point in March, these are the times the commercials switch from longs to shorts (March) to the height of their short positions (September). I threw in a few ideas here on trading view that we would probably see more aggressive shorting, not seeing the foresight of what the ultimate achievement of the central banks are trying to do. So now I throw another fib on top of the current ont, this fib is from the highest high (September) to the most recent low that we've had since that high in March which was just about a week/2weeks ago.
There's a confluence overlap of the new 62% retracement that is sitting on top of the 70.5% retracement of both of these fibs at the institutional level of 1.18600.
As I can't see the future, this could easily make it's way back to the 1.2000 level, just to draw enough retail buyers in to go long at the opportunistic moment. But I digresss.
I believe that near the 1.18600 level will be the kill zone to go short, for all of those shorts that have been building will finally take off and make a run for the original March-Sept fib to hit their extensions -27% to -62%. And just prior the -62% of the March to Sept fib is the pivot, -100%, for the September to September 25 fib. These institutional levels are 1.12000 and 1.17000. And the 1.17000 level is where we find a major support zone.
As price typically chases 10 year bond yields, you can see a clear divergence in the the US 10 Year yield (Blue) vs. the Euro 10 year yields (Yellow, Top Down it goes Italy, Spain, France, Germany) While the U.S. yield is currently making a higher high since August 27, the rest of the Euro countries are slipping in yield prices. Just another tidbit to support my claim.
Yes. A lot is going to happen between now and then. As for my related idea to short this week, I'm not so sure, I think we'll be seeing more bullishness. But I believe this is the framework of this pair that we should see play out until next spring when we start to see a bullish move once again.
I'll try to call the day trades when I see them in this pair because they've been forming around 6a.m. - 8 a.m. CST U.S. But as for now, This is my current and final skeleton of the EURUSD.
Final note, I don't believe in trend lines. Sorry, not sorry.
The First week of September is when EURUSD made it's most recent high, and so far, high of the year, which is typical for about this time of the year if you look at yearly cycles. The commercials were at the deepest in shorts at this time and started lessening the shorts shortly after. Just two weeks ago we did see the massive sell off. Last week we started to see the retracement, more longs were added.
Now what I did whas draw a fib from the highest point in September to the High point in March, these are the times the commercials switch from longs to shorts (March) to the height of their short positions (September). I threw in a few ideas here on trading view that we would probably see more aggressive shorting, not seeing the foresight of what the ultimate achievement of the central banks are trying to do. So now I throw another fib on top of the current ont, this fib is from the highest high (September) to the most recent low that we've had since that high in March which was just about a week/2weeks ago.
There's a confluence overlap of the new 62% retracement that is sitting on top of the 70.5% retracement of both of these fibs at the institutional level of 1.18600.
As I can't see the future, this could easily make it's way back to the 1.2000 level, just to draw enough retail buyers in to go long at the opportunistic moment. But I digresss.
I believe that near the 1.18600 level will be the kill zone to go short, for all of those shorts that have been building will finally take off and make a run for the original March-Sept fib to hit their extensions -27% to -62%. And just prior the -62% of the March to Sept fib is the pivot, -100%, for the September to September 25 fib. These institutional levels are 1.12000 and 1.17000. And the 1.17000 level is where we find a major support zone.
As price typically chases 10 year bond yields, you can see a clear divergence in the the US 10 Year yield (Blue) vs. the Euro 10 year yields (Yellow, Top Down it goes Italy, Spain, France, Germany) While the U.S. yield is currently making a higher high since August 27, the rest of the Euro countries are slipping in yield prices. Just another tidbit to support my claim.
Yes. A lot is going to happen between now and then. As for my related idea to short this week, I'm not so sure, I think we'll be seeing more bullishness. But I believe this is the framework of this pair that we should see play out until next spring when we start to see a bullish move once again.
I'll try to call the day trades when I see them in this pair because they've been forming around 6a.m. - 8 a.m. CST U.S. But as for now, This is my current and final skeleton of the EURUSD.
Final note, I don't believe in trend lines. Sorry, not sorry.
You're either trading with Smart Money Theory or your just burning your money money. Believe me, I've been there.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.