Euro / U.S. DollarShort
EURUSD: First red day in a broken down market
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Let's start saying that I'm not here to predict the market, my view is only about the setup I'm looking, predicting is 50/50, trading specific setups can be a 90/10 opportunity.
EURUSD is currently in a kind of template which I saw several times in the past, the is breaking down, sellers are controlling the market and potentially by Thursday and Friday we can see a weekly pump and dump completing.
But let's analyse the full week to have a better understanding of the logic behind this potential move.
The previous week the market has been breaking down every day, and Friday place the most recent high and burst into the low of week.
Monday was pretty much consolidating into the LOW, not really something that can be interesting.
Tuesday the market triggered breakout long traders and pumped back up into Friday HOD, stopping their short breakout.
Wednesday, until CPI release, the market consolidated at the high of the week, eventually trapping volume up high. CPI stopped hunt trade who were shorting, closing the day back inside the initial balance (high low range of the week), and especially as first red day!
What's my thesis?
My main scenario is a short one, trying to complete the dump phase in a weekly pump and dump scenario. Obviously, not necessary we can see a strong move back into the low of week, but it can also stop and consolidate above the opening range high (HOD of Monday).
How would I enter this market?
USD news are scheduled on calendar at 8:30am NYT, I will be watching for a buy low setup after news release, specifically I will be looking for reversal pattern into the HOD.
What about the long view?
Of course, as I said, predicting a move is just silly, predicting is just like gambling, a long move obviously can happen and I can be willing to take it a session scalp if the market drop vertically down into the yesterday LOD, consolidating into the level till I will get any reversal configuration (Buy low opportunity).
During the upcoming hours I will be updating this post!
Trade safe!
Gianni
Let's start saying that I'm not here to predict the market, my view is only about the setup I'm looking, predicting is 50/50, trading specific setups can be a 90/10 opportunity.
EURUSD is currently in a kind of template which I saw several times in the past, the is breaking down, sellers are controlling the market and potentially by Thursday and Friday we can see a weekly pump and dump completing.
But let's analyse the full week to have a better understanding of the logic behind this potential move.
The previous week the market has been breaking down every day, and Friday place the most recent high and burst into the low of week.
Monday was pretty much consolidating into the LOW, not really something that can be interesting.
Tuesday the market triggered breakout long traders and pumped back up into Friday HOD, stopping their short breakout.
Wednesday, until CPI release, the market consolidated at the high of the week, eventually trapping volume up high. CPI stopped hunt trade who were shorting, closing the day back inside the initial balance (high low range of the week), and especially as first red day!
What's my thesis?
My main scenario is a short one, trying to complete the dump phase in a weekly pump and dump scenario. Obviously, not necessary we can see a strong move back into the low of week, but it can also stop and consolidate above the opening range high (HOD of Monday).
How would I enter this market?
USD news are scheduled on calendar at 8:30am NYT, I will be watching for a buy low setup after news release, specifically I will be looking for reversal pattern into the HOD.
What about the long view?
Of course, as I said, predicting a move is just silly, predicting is just like gambling, a long move obviously can happen and I can be willing to take it a session scalp if the market drop vertically down into the yesterday LOD, consolidating into the level till I will get any reversal configuration (Buy low opportunity).
During the upcoming hours I will be updating this post!
Trade safe!
Gianni
Note
My short view, would be pretty similar to this, pump and dump in the session, after news release
Regarding the long view, either a reversal from LOD or trend continuation it the market will break higher
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.