EUR/USD Trade Setup – Rising Wedge Rejection at Key Resistance
Timeframe: 30-Minute
Pair: EUR/USD
Strategy: Pattern Breakdown + Resistance Rejection
Bias: Bearish (Short Setup)
🧠 Technical Analysis Breakdown
1. Market Structure & Zones
Support Zone: Marked near 1.12785, this level acted as a demand area during the earlier part of the chart. Price bounced off this zone multiple times, validating it as strong support.
Resistance Zone: Identified near the 1.13830–1.13900 area. This zone has served as a supply zone, with price rejecting it aggressively, forming upper wicks and bearish engulfing candles upon testing.
2. Chart Pattern – Rising Wedge Formation
A rising wedge pattern is visible leading into the resistance zone. This pattern consists of converging trendlines sloping upwards — a classic bearish reversal pattern, especially when formed in an uptrend and near resistance.
The wedge consists of multiple touches on both trendlines, confirming its validity.
Price broke down from the wedge support trendline, suggesting sellers are gaining control.
3. Price Action Confirmation
Following the wedge breakdown, price made a minor pullback, which acted as a retest of broken structure (previous wedge support turned resistance).
The retest failed to make a new high and formed a lower high, indicating bearish continuation.
Candlestick structure also supports the bearish view — with small-bodied candles and wicks on the top side, reflecting selling pressure.
📍 Trade Setup Plan
Entry Zone: Near 1.13400 after the wedge breakdown and retest.
Stop Loss (SL): Placed at 1.13834, just above the resistance zone, to protect against false breakouts or short squeezes.
Take Profit (TP1): 1.13021 — this is a nearby support/structure level that can act as the first reaction point.
Final Target (TP2): 1.12785 — key support area where price has historically bounced.
🧩 Risk Management & Rationale
The wedge breakdown confirms momentum shift.
Stop loss is well-placed above invalidation structure.
Risk-to-reward ratio is favorable (roughly 2.5:1 if targeting final TP).
Trade is supported by:
Pattern structure (rising wedge)
Price action at resistance
Bearish market reaction
📈 Summary
This is a high-probability short setup based on confluence of technical factors — wedge pattern breakdown, rejection from resistance, bearish price action, and clean structure targets below. Patience is required for the move to play out toward 1.12785.
Timeframe: 30-Minute
Pair: EUR/USD
Strategy: Pattern Breakdown + Resistance Rejection
Bias: Bearish (Short Setup)
🧠 Technical Analysis Breakdown
1. Market Structure & Zones
Support Zone: Marked near 1.12785, this level acted as a demand area during the earlier part of the chart. Price bounced off this zone multiple times, validating it as strong support.
Resistance Zone: Identified near the 1.13830–1.13900 area. This zone has served as a supply zone, with price rejecting it aggressively, forming upper wicks and bearish engulfing candles upon testing.
2. Chart Pattern – Rising Wedge Formation
A rising wedge pattern is visible leading into the resistance zone. This pattern consists of converging trendlines sloping upwards — a classic bearish reversal pattern, especially when formed in an uptrend and near resistance.
The wedge consists of multiple touches on both trendlines, confirming its validity.
Price broke down from the wedge support trendline, suggesting sellers are gaining control.
3. Price Action Confirmation
Following the wedge breakdown, price made a minor pullback, which acted as a retest of broken structure (previous wedge support turned resistance).
The retest failed to make a new high and formed a lower high, indicating bearish continuation.
Candlestick structure also supports the bearish view — with small-bodied candles and wicks on the top side, reflecting selling pressure.
📍 Trade Setup Plan
Entry Zone: Near 1.13400 after the wedge breakdown and retest.
Stop Loss (SL): Placed at 1.13834, just above the resistance zone, to protect against false breakouts or short squeezes.
Take Profit (TP1): 1.13021 — this is a nearby support/structure level that can act as the first reaction point.
Final Target (TP2): 1.12785 — key support area where price has historically bounced.
🧩 Risk Management & Rationale
The wedge breakdown confirms momentum shift.
Stop loss is well-placed above invalidation structure.
Risk-to-reward ratio is favorable (roughly 2.5:1 if targeting final TP).
Trade is supported by:
Pattern structure (rising wedge)
Price action at resistance
Bearish market reaction
📈 Summary
This is a high-probability short setup based on confluence of technical factors — wedge pattern breakdown, rejection from resistance, bearish price action, and clean structure targets below. Patience is required for the move to play out toward 1.12785.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.