Euro / U.S. DollarShort
EURUSD: Technical & Fundamental| This weeks Data Predictions!!!
Updated
Churning accounts and Frustration: So, my butt has been kicked for several days because I was not aligning both fundamental and technical data together to get the best trades. Being patient can be hard sometimes, even if you have been trading a long time. I like trading with others because it helps to correct the "bad" side. We all need re-alignment sometimes. We know that trading can be profitable, but sometimes the dream of success gets in the way of staying the course. Thanks for those who put me back on the right path )you know who you are). Ok..back to the basics!
What I like about economic-fundamentals is that they give you a logical sense and evidence of WHY you should stay in a trade or get out, or if not..at least a direction to trade alongside the BIG BOYS and not AGAINST them!
Fundamental Direction and Sense:
I maintain a long-term bullish view of the USD. So far, the data coming out has been supportive of a bullish view of the dollar. It makes no sense to trade against the fundamental trend and bullish news because banks are trading in the bullish direction and setting their rates accordingly. Let's join them!
The US Central Bank is focused on INFLATION, EMPLOYMENT and whether the data can support and INTEREST RATE hike. So far, I think so.
Wednesday: Nothing
On Wednesday, there is US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m coming out. It is n high IMPACT DATA that the FED is not really watching, so it may not move the market as much as we expect. Should we stay away on the side lines and be scared? Heck no! It probably will push the market up to our limit orders to short EURUSD, and any negative data will die out as Yellen speaks to the government next (they will haggle her).
Thursday: BIG DAY!! US GDP comes out AND employment data. This is what the US FED is watching. We need this to come out positive to support our trades. We probably will be in the trade the day before. And the market will whipsaw up and down as we hold. Yellen will speak again to the public. What I NEED from her is to give investors a hawkish stance that she is not backing down from raising rates this year. If she changes her mind, then we need to exit the USD position and stay on the side lines and wait to see what is happening next. If we are in a profit, then we are getting out still, for then it would make absolutely no sense to fight the bank's decision.
Friday: Euro's flash CPI comes out. Again, inflation is a key measurement of inflation. We need this to be bad.
and guess what? WE HAVE MIXED CONFIDENCE according to my predictive analysis. So, what we need to to is WATCH the data come out. If it comes out BAD, then we can sit and watch the EURO fall,for the ball will be in OUR COURT! And the European central bank must take action to counter-their faltering inflation! Their measures to aid their economy would be confirmed to not be working If it is good, then our stops will be at break even. By this time, I think our target would have already been hit.
Technical:
For a period of a week, the volume in the EUR/USD pair has been dying off, and then a sharp move down with rising interest in voluminous transactions. This supports the bears. There was regular divergence as well in the MACD.
I am currently in the trade on a pullback and prepared to enter a second position around the 1.1247 and 1.1243 area, and then aim for an 80 pip to 141 pip target, ultimately to 1.1084.
How I feel and Lessons Learned:
(1) Stay patient and do not force trades.
(2) Wait for the fundamental and technical picture to align together and do not counter trade because it is like flipping a coin; it can go either way.
(3) The power of looking at the economic-fundamentals is that it gives you a clear sense of direction and the chance to trade in alignment with powerful forces.
*Economic-Fundamentals are POWER FOR YOU!
What I like about economic-fundamentals is that they give you a logical sense and evidence of WHY you should stay in a trade or get out, or if not..at least a direction to trade alongside the BIG BOYS and not AGAINST them!
Fundamental Direction and Sense:
I maintain a long-term bullish view of the USD. So far, the data coming out has been supportive of a bullish view of the dollar. It makes no sense to trade against the fundamental trend and bullish news because banks are trading in the bullish direction and setting their rates accordingly. Let's join them!
The US Central Bank is focused on INFLATION, EMPLOYMENT and whether the data can support and INTEREST RATE hike. So far, I think so.
Wednesday: Nothing
On Wednesday, there is US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m coming out. It is n high IMPACT DATA that the FED is not really watching, so it may not move the market as much as we expect. Should we stay away on the side lines and be scared? Heck no! It probably will push the market up to our limit orders to short EURUSD, and any negative data will die out as Yellen speaks to the government next (they will haggle her).
Thursday: BIG DAY!! US GDP comes out AND employment data. This is what the US FED is watching. We need this to come out positive to support our trades. We probably will be in the trade the day before. And the market will whipsaw up and down as we hold. Yellen will speak again to the public. What I NEED from her is to give investors a hawkish stance that she is not backing down from raising rates this year. If she changes her mind, then we need to exit the USD position and stay on the side lines and wait to see what is happening next. If we are in a profit, then we are getting out still, for then it would make absolutely no sense to fight the bank's decision.
Friday: Euro's flash CPI comes out. Again, inflation is a key measurement of inflation. We need this to be bad.
and guess what? WE HAVE MIXED CONFIDENCE according to my predictive analysis. So, what we need to to is WATCH the data come out. If it comes out BAD, then we can sit and watch the EURO fall,for the ball will be in OUR COURT! And the European central bank must take action to counter-their faltering inflation! Their measures to aid their economy would be confirmed to not be working If it is good, then our stops will be at break even. By this time, I think our target would have already been hit.
Technical:
For a period of a week, the volume in the EUR/USD pair has been dying off, and then a sharp move down with rising interest in voluminous transactions. This supports the bears. There was regular divergence as well in the MACD.
I am currently in the trade on a pullback and prepared to enter a second position around the 1.1247 and 1.1243 area, and then aim for an 80 pip to 141 pip target, ultimately to 1.1084.
How I feel and Lessons Learned:
(1) Stay patient and do not force trades.
(2) Wait for the fundamental and technical picture to align together and do not counter trade because it is like flipping a coin; it can go either way.
(3) The power of looking at the economic-fundamentals is that it gives you a clear sense of direction and the chance to trade in alignment with powerful forces.
*Economic-Fundamentals are POWER FOR YOU!
Note
Note
Update: Note
The first target was actually hit on the chart. I aqm feeling a little shaking about another fall in the EURUSD this weak, giving that bullish bully bar that popped right back up after meeting projections.Last week was great for the dollar. I hope to see more good stuff. Going into the new week (October 2nd to October 7th 2016) with an open mind,
Trade closed: target reached
Note
Actually, this is an old commentary that has already fulfilled its target. I need to post a new one.
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