The Non-farm payroll figures were the ones that the market closely watched, posted on Friday. The NFP for February was 151K in February. The figure was slightly below the market estimate of 160K. The unemployment rate in February was 4,1%, by 1 pp higher from the previous month. The average hourly earnings increased by 0,3% for the month and 4% on a yearly basis. As for other data macro posted for the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for February was standing at 50,3, a bit below market consensus of 50,5. The US ISM Services PMI in February was standing at 53,5 which was a bit higher from forecasted 52,6.
The ECB held a meeting during the previous week, and decided to further decrease its facility rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 2,5%. Inflation rate in the Euro Zone in February, preliminary for the month was 0,5%, leading to 2,4% on a yearly basis. At the same time, core inflation was 2,6% y/y. All figures were in line with market estimates. The unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in January was without change from the previous month, at 6,2%. The market forecast was expecting a bit higher figure, of 6,3%. The HCOB Composite PMI final in February for Germany was standing at 50,4, below market consensus of 51. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was 50,2 in February and was in line with market estimates. The Producers Price Index in the Euro Zone in January was standing higher by 0,8% for the month and 1,8% for the year. Both figures were a bit higher from market expectations. The third estimate of EuroZone GDP growth for the Q4 was 0,2% for the quarter, bringing the GDP growth on a yearly basis to the level of 1,2%. This was better from the market estimate of 0,9%.
One of the beneficiaries of the uncertainty over new US Administration moves are EU markets. The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps, for one more time, while the NFP figures in the US showed a bit of slowdown. This was more than enough for markets to favor EUR currency during the previous week, trading with the uptrend during the whole week. The currency pair started the previous week around the level of 1,038, and was strongly pushed to the upside, and highest weekly level at 1,088. This was a strong weekly move, while eurusd ended the week at 1,083. The strong resistance level at 1,08 was last time tested in November 2024. The RSI currently stands at a strongly overbought market side. The MA50 started its convergence toward the MA200. There is still a distance between two lines, so the cross will be postponed for the future period.
After a strong move to the upside, where the overbought market side was clearly reached, some short reversals are probable in the coming period. For the week ahead, it could be expected that the market will continue testing the 1,08 resistance line for the potential toward the downside. On the opposite side, there is some small probability for the move toward the 1,09, the next resistance level, but some stronger moves should not be expected, based on current charts.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Balance of Trade for Germany in January, Industrial Production in January for Germany, Industrial Production in the Euro Zone in January, Inflation rate in February for Germany,
USD: JOTL`s Job Openings in January, Inflation Rate in February, Producers Price Index in February, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for March
The ECB held a meeting during the previous week, and decided to further decrease its facility rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 2,5%. Inflation rate in the Euro Zone in February, preliminary for the month was 0,5%, leading to 2,4% on a yearly basis. At the same time, core inflation was 2,6% y/y. All figures were in line with market estimates. The unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in January was without change from the previous month, at 6,2%. The market forecast was expecting a bit higher figure, of 6,3%. The HCOB Composite PMI final in February for Germany was standing at 50,4, below market consensus of 51. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was 50,2 in February and was in line with market estimates. The Producers Price Index in the Euro Zone in January was standing higher by 0,8% for the month and 1,8% for the year. Both figures were a bit higher from market expectations. The third estimate of EuroZone GDP growth for the Q4 was 0,2% for the quarter, bringing the GDP growth on a yearly basis to the level of 1,2%. This was better from the market estimate of 0,9%.
One of the beneficiaries of the uncertainty over new US Administration moves are EU markets. The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps, for one more time, while the NFP figures in the US showed a bit of slowdown. This was more than enough for markets to favor EUR currency during the previous week, trading with the uptrend during the whole week. The currency pair started the previous week around the level of 1,038, and was strongly pushed to the upside, and highest weekly level at 1,088. This was a strong weekly move, while eurusd ended the week at 1,083. The strong resistance level at 1,08 was last time tested in November 2024. The RSI currently stands at a strongly overbought market side. The MA50 started its convergence toward the MA200. There is still a distance between two lines, so the cross will be postponed for the future period.
After a strong move to the upside, where the overbought market side was clearly reached, some short reversals are probable in the coming period. For the week ahead, it could be expected that the market will continue testing the 1,08 resistance line for the potential toward the downside. On the opposite side, there is some small probability for the move toward the 1,09, the next resistance level, but some stronger moves should not be expected, based on current charts.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Balance of Trade for Germany in January, Industrial Production in January for Germany, Industrial Production in the Euro Zone in January, Inflation rate in February for Germany,
USD: JOTL`s Job Openings in January, Inflation Rate in February, Producers Price Index in February, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for March
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.