EURUSD Insight

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Key Points
- Following U.S. President Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs, China responded by declaring a 34% retaliatory tariff on all U.S. products. In response, Trump stated that China had made the wrong choice.
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls for March increased by 228,000, significantly exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate came in slightly above expectations at 4.2%.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented that "tariffs are likely to push up inflation, at least temporarily," and added that the impact may be more lasting, signaling a slight step back from his earlier stance that the effects would be "transitory." Regarding monetary policy, he stated that "there is no need to rush."

Key Economic Events This Week
+ April 10: FOMC Minutes, U.S. March Consumer Price Index
+ April 11: U.K. February GDP, Germany March Consumer Price Index, U.S. March Producer Price Index

EURUSD Chart Analysis
Previously, a strong rebound from the 1.07500 level led to a sharp rise up to the 1.11500 area. However, faced with resistance at the recent high, the pair has now retreated to around the 1.09500 level. Moving forward, we anticipate a slight decline toward the 1.08000 level, followed by a renewed upward move targeting the previous high at 1.11000.

However, if the pair breaks below the 1.08000–1.07500 range, contrary to expectations, the trend could shift to bearish. In that case, we will quickly revise our strategy.

Disclaimer

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