EUR / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE UPDATES for FX:EURUSD by ZielIstDieAutarkie

My analysis today is an actively managed BLOG post that looks at the current price of the "EUR / USD".

> The post will be updated daily with comments and trade ideas to generate a series where you as a reader - ACTIVELY - can learn from the analysis and decisions.

In the following analysis, I highlight a SHORT scenario, focusing on the technical KEY points that will be relevant in the coming days.

> Once the temporary direction of the price emerges, I update the post accordingly, with entries, stop-loss & take-profit levels.

CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED

The DXY still has not found its bottom, however we are facing daily and weekly resistances in the EUR/USD, which could serve as relevant resistances.

Moreover, the DXY has been sold off very strongly without executing another healthy retracement, with which it should occur in the near term.

Despite these facts, the price can break through these levels and neutralize the trade.

> Additional information will be added as comments to this blog to give you the most added value possible.

# Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT

If this idea and explanation provided you with added value, I would be very happy to receive a review of the idea.

Thank you, and happy trading!

Note

Following these superior SMAs, join the Fibonacci lines in the chart as additional resistances:

TOP = MONTH | BOTTOM = 2 WEEKS

Trade active

ENTRY 1-3 got triggered and filled:
> If that was the top, following correction levels getting important.

Note

A bearish divergence is already forming on the 1-hour chart, leaving room for another upward move.

> Despite this, the price can also be directly down-Sold.
> A reason for this would be the SL-Hunt before (marked in red), which broke through the DEMAND zone and apparently wasn't very successfully.

Note

UPDATE - 4 H - SZENARIO

Note

POSITIVE NEWS

> 30 minutes ago, we got the new EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTORING INDEX data, which was positive for the USD = DXY.
> We nearly created a 4-hour - BULLISH ENGULFING - close, which got pushed down short before the candle close.
> Still we break out of the sideways range of the DXY, so we should see a further bullish move from the DXY and the entry of a correction in the EUR = MAJORs.

= DXY < LONG
= EUR < SHORT

Note

SUPPORT LEVEL

Note

After today's LONDON - session executed a push to the upside, I took the opportunity and repositioned myself (= higher SHORT - entries) - the SL remains unchanged.

The FIB levels were adjusted to the new HH and can be seen in the following chart.

Note

The EUR shows the first signs of a sell-off, and we have meanwhile reached the higher time level FIB (0.328) and successfully worked off.

> From here, the price could temporarily stop running back.
> However, it is more likely that we continue to break through and then the yellow-circled area would be the next support zone.

Note

The daily closing candle has created a RESISTANCES DEMAND ZONE.
> This is in addition to this Bearish candle another confirmation of the coming Ab-Sale.
> Today in 3h 15 min the "Unemployment Claims" will be released, setting the tone in the DXY (USD) & EUR, until next week Monday.

For a complete confirmation of the thesis, we need another bearish daily candle, and then nothing should stand in the way of the SHORT.

Note

New "Unemployment Claims" (USD) data were released and were more positive than expected.

> For this reason, the EUR will continue the ab-sale and the DXY will continue to rise
> This will continue until next week Monday, when we will receive new data on the EU, which will reassess the situation.

We will encounter significant support in the VIOLET marked zone.

> TREND CHANNEL
> DEMAND ZONES
> FIBONACCI - Combination

Trade closed: target reached

Note

The EUR has reached the VIOLET target zone and successfully broken through it on a candlestick close (4 h).

In the following, one can expect further selling pressure, which runs into a volume-poor zone.

> In the chart, the next traded volume areas are drawn in YELLOW.
> If we continue to sell down after a setback, we fall through the "Wasteland" until we meet demand (YELLOW areas).

Anyone who has not taken profits so far should follow up.

> The DXY is at a Significant resistance, which must first be consolidated with several candle closes and converted as support.
> Important will be the daily close in 30 min

Note

Die Tageskerze hat genau auf dem 0.328er FIB geschlossen, womit der Rücksetzer, mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit, jetzt eingeleitet wird.
> Der Rücksetzer sollte im anbetracht der stark Bärischen Kerze, bis zum eingezeichneten 0.618er FIB laufen.

Note

The following chart should serve as an example of how much we are influenced by our subconscious.

It concerns here the DXY, which I represented in "INVERTED" form.

> In addition, the colors were taken from the candles, so that the greatest possible confusion arises and one can evaluate the situation neutrally.
> With different coloring in the chart and other approaches, you can put your previously formed opinion to the test.
> Try it out on your own and test your fixed opinion for its stability.

Note

Anyone who also wants to take the small SWINGs, or in case this was the maximum in the DXY, can now go in with the small LONG positions.

We should see at least a small correction and test in the EUR up to this marked AREA.

Note

Just published are the new PMI data from France and Germany, which are both "NEGATIVE".
> For this reason, the sell-off continued earlier than expected. (0.328 FIB processed).
> This may change again in 6h when the American PMI data will be released.

If the American PMI is positive, the sell-off will continue after the event.

tradingview.com/x/jkROiWcy/v

Note

The American PMI data were more positive than negative, but not by much.
> For this reason, the price action was rather boring and the ab-sale will continue slowly.

The following levels are the next support zones where we can expect a reaction.

tradingview.com/x/arQiM0BP/a

Note

An hour ago, the "German ifo Business Climate" data was published, which, against expectations, showed poor results.
+ | USD (DXY)
- | EUR

In 5 hours, we will receive the American "CB Consumer Confidence" data, which could decide the next movement.
> However, tomorrow is "FOMC", so the market will most likely react more calmly to the new data than it normally would.

Tomorrow will then be the big landmark decision, so we can reassess from there.

Note

We received the new data from the EU Main Refinancing Rate, which was neutral.
> In the following, the "Monetary Policy Statement" was held, which predicted a very dark future for the EUR.
> For this reason, the correction in the USD ended and a strong sell-off in the EUR took place.

In the following chart, you can see all the relevant support and resistance areas.
> The EUR - 3H close, was extremely bearish

Note

The daily candle closing is absolutely brutal.
> Some news will come out about tomorrow, however, I personally can not imagine that this candle is defeated for now.
> In any case, this is a clear sign, for the still coming Sell-off.

Note

INTRADAY - LEVEL UPDATE

Note

POSSIBLE INTRADAY - SCENARIOS

Note

The candle closing leaves it open to what the next week will look like.
> In the Daily TF's there's a lot of indecisiveness
> In the Weekly TF's we have last week a bearish closing and the 2-week close looks like a retest.

DAILY (1-3) CLOSE = INDECISIVE

WEEKLY CLOSE = BEARISH

2-WEEK CLOSE = RETEST

Note

4 H - SCENARIES

Note

The monthly close has taken place, and the following candle was received.

> The reaction from the previously announced resistance zone looks phenomenal!
> We will most likely see another wick to the upside, however, after this Bullish reaction, the price will not regain the missing momentum at the Higher time levels.

Note

3 H - Bullish Engulfing - Long Start

Note

UPDATD SHORT TERM LEVELS for LONG

Note

We hit PROFIT again for the SHORT-Term LONG trade!
> take Proifts and see how far it goes

Note

We got the "ADP Non-Farm Employment Change" numbers from the USA, which were really positive for the USD.

With that, the USD dominance (DXY) will continue to rise until we see the next CPI data tomorrow.
= pressure on all other markets related to it

Note

HTF wise there is still room to decline.

Note

The market should show little volatility until today's news events:
> USD - Unemployment Claims (in 4 hours)
> USD - ISM Services PMI (in 6 hours)

There will be extreme volatility at these events, so caution is advised.

Note

USD - Unemployment Claims
= Neutral data release / we need to wait for the ISM for bias

Note

USD - ISM Services PMI
= Negative data release / the pressure on the DXY is high, and with that, the possibility for a correction got higher.

Note

All markets seem to be gathering liquidity right now and waiting.
= Ranges have formed, and we can say the direction only when a range is significantly broken, with confirmation of the range.

Tomorrow will be published 3x relevant American economic data, the results of which the market will wait with great anticipation.

> Average Hourly Earnings m/m
> Non-Farm Employment Change
> Unemployment Rate

Note

Mixed data print - as a consequence we should see a mixed market reaction and volatility over the next few hours.

> Average Hourly Earnings m/m
= PRO < USD
> Non-Farm Employment Change
= CONTRA > USD
> Unemployment Rate
= PRO < USD

Trade active

Note

The DAY - candle close has turned out Bullish:
> However, the candle itself reflects a DOJI - which in turn means indecision.
> The price has hit the 0.328 FIB (of the whole movement), which is why I assume a bearish reaction in the intra-day, at the beginning of the week.
> The candle close was below the "HTF - MSB", which serves as resistance.
> The probability speaks rather for a further rise next week, however, the candle closure was generated only because of the event on Friday - therefore, caution is still announced, regarding BIAS change.

Note

The momentum of the upside push is gone, and we will need a correction to get further liquidity for a future push.

Note

Here you can see my new HTF - SERIES - for the EUR / USD:

Note

The volatility will continue to be slow because we have two major events at the end of this week:
> Thursday = CPI
> Friday = PPI

The market is waiting for the results of these events = there should be no big move until Thursday.

Note

DAILY CLOSE - BEARISH
> Closed under the Mid-Trend Line from the channel
> Today Intra-day recovery and then continuation of downwards move

Note

Tomorrow are big impact news for the USD = CPI data
> Until that, the price should move slowly because the market is waiting for the release.

Note

DAILY CLOSE - INDECISIVE
> Still closed under the Mid-Resistance Line of the HTF-Channel.
> Doji candle indicates indecisiveness.
> I'm sure that we will see today with the USD event, a significant direction move.
> In which direction - no one can predict, we need to wait for the data.

Note

USD - CPI + Unemployment Claims
= Negative data release / the pressure on the DXY is high, and with that, the possibility of an upside move will come into play now.

Note

Tomorrow are big impact news for the USD = "PPI data" + "Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment" afterward
> Until that, the price should move slowly because the market is waiting for the release.

Note

Valid until CPI:

Note

< USD NEWS > PPI + CORE PPI
= Positive data release / the pressure on the DXY is thus less.
= This now brings the possibility of a further downward movement into play.

Note

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle formed a "BULLISH ENGULFING"
= indicating a continuation of the sell-off and confirming the bullish momentum in the DXY (USD) and its published data on Friday.

> The "CLOSE" occurred below the center line of the currently existing uptrend channel, which now serves as resistance.
> The line drawn in brown is a HTF support line, which has a significant value. We should get a non-negligible reaction on contact.
= You can read and watch more details about this in my series "EUR / USD - HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES".

> The "FIBONACCI LEVEL" of the downside = 0.88 & 0.618 - could be successfully worked off next week with another move, should the Brown HTF support break.
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" located below serves as additional support.
> The MA (100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50) - serve as resistance.

1 DAY = 4 HOURS x Six (ITD Price Action)

Note

To understand the direction we might go,
check out this other IDEA where I've highlighted the HTF-KEY areas and zones that are relevant for next week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

New USD data will be published tomorrow:
> Core Retail Sales
> Empire State Manufacturing Index

This will bring back a lot of volatility into the market, which is currently missing.

Note

LEVEL VALID UNTIL PUBLICATION = USD DATA

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 2 HOURS

Note

USD data = POSITIVE:
> POSITIVE | Core retail sales
> POSITIVE | Retail sales m/m
> POSITIVE | Import Prices m/m
> NEGATIVE | Empire State Manufacturing Index

MEANS:
> DXY (USD) - RISING
> OTHER - FALLING

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow is the FOMC Meeting (USD) which will set the direction until the next.
> prepare your trades for this event, because it will cause random volatility

Note

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle formed an "INVERTED HAMMER"
= this indicates an imminent trend reversal, which must be confirmed with another Bearish candle closing price or Bullish "Intraday Price Action".

> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred below the yellow HTF trendline, which now serves as resistance.
> The price continues to fight the turquoise HTF trendline.
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" below it was worked off and no longer serves as additional support.
> The MA (200) - serves as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50, 100) - serve as resistance.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> FOMC MEETING IN 2 HOURS <
= RANDOM VOLATILITY

Note

The "FOMC meeting" revealed that the U.S. Federal Reserve is very likely to want to continue its restrictive course.
> Furthermore, criticism regarding the approach is becoming louder and louder, as a monetary policy that is too tight would have very negative effects.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> the candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= the only thing to note is the longer shadow above the opening price

> The "CLOSING PRICE" occurred below the Parallel Trendline (Turquoise) of the existing HTF downtrend channel, which now serves as resistance.
> The line drawn in yellow is a HTF support line, which was confirmed by the market as resistance.
= You can read and watch more details about this in my series "EUR / USD - HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES".

> The "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the downward movement = 0.88 & 0.618 - were successfully worked through and serve as support for a further close.
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" located below it does NOT serve as support anymore.
> The MA (200) - serves as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50, 100) - serve as resistance.

1 DAY = 4 HOURS x Six (ITD Price Action)

Note

USD data released today was positive, supporting further upside for the DXY.
> This movement will put further selling pressure on all markets.

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 3 HOURS

Note

The USD data released today was negative, supporting downside for the DXY.
> This movement will put less selling pressure on all markets.
> Still there is tomorrow more to come with the „Unemployment Claims“ which will manifest the decision a bit more.

Note

UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 20 MIN

Note

The USD data released today turned out POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlating markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

HTF - TAG - SIGNIFICANT LEVEL FOR SUPPORT

If the market shows a reaction and confirms this in the weekly start and ITD, we could go LONG - for anyone with a wide SL and a high risk appetite can try to go LONG at the channel bottom.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASED IN 3 HOURS ="Revised UoM Consumer Confidence"<
> NEWS RELEASED IN 4 HOURS ="Fed Chair Powell Speaks"<

Note

The USD data released today was NEGATIVE and supports a FALLING DXY.
> However, we have the Jackson Hole today, which has higher weighting than the data released.
> This takes selling pressure out of the FX majors and correlated markets.
= If the falling scenario in the DXY is confirmed, one can position LONG until the next NEWS release - in his selected pair.
= Personally, I am still weighted on the SHORT side.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow will be published some USD - NEWS, which will give the market - bias.
> Over today, we have seen almost no movement, which confirms the relevance of tomorrow's news.
> With high probability, no market movement will happen until the publication.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 2 HOURS ="CB Consumer Confidence"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 2 HOURS ="JOLTS Job Openings"<

Note

USD data released today was NEGATIVE and supports a FALLLENDING DXY.
> This takes the selling pressure out of the FX majors and correlated markets.
= Should the falling scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself LONG - in one's selected pair - until the next NEWS release.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 4 HOURS ="ADP Non-Farm Employment Change"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 4 HOURS ="Prelim GDP q/q"<

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="ADP Non-Farm Employment Change"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="Prelim GDP q/q"<

Until the data is released, we can expect SLOW - "Price Action".

Note

USD data released today was POSITIVE & supportive of a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="ISM Manufacturing PMI<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

The first relevant news will be published on Wednesday,
which is why we can assume that the share price will continue in the adopted direction until then. (= SHORT)

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

The "Price Action" was very low during the day, which is why the market hardly moved = the last uploaded levels are still valid until a significant movement.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow we will get the new USD NEWS "ISM Services PMI", so the market will be quieter until the release.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="ISM Services PMI"<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 4 HOURS =„Unemployment Claims“<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

No significant NEWS will be released today, so the "Price Action" will be steady and slow.

Note

Over the day, there was nearly no movement because of a missing NEWS event.
> The weekly Candle will close soon and will tell us the drive plan for the next week.

Note

On Wednesday, the NEWS (USD) releases start until Friday.
> Until then, we can expect a slow "Price Action".
> The major market participants will most likely wait for the new data until they actively participate in the market action.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 1 HOURS <

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 15 MINUTES ="Main refinancing rate (EUR)"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 30 MINUTES ="Core PPI m/m (USD)"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 30 MINUTES ="Unemployment Claims (USD)"<

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1.5 HOURS ="Empire State Manufacturing Index"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment<

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE - VALID UNTIL TODAY'S "FOMC" EVENT

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN - 3 HOURS ="FOMC"<

Note

The USD data released today turned out NEUTRAL & are thus already priced in the market.
= This means that we have to wait for the next "NEWS release" to get a clear direction.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

LEVEL UPDATE - VALID UNTIL TODAYS NEWS EVENT

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="Unemployment Claims"<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI<

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 45 MINUTES =„ISM Manufacturing PMI“<

Note

Unfortunately, I made a mistake and displayed next week's "Dates & News".
> the announced appointment has not taken place for this reason and the post before is irrelevant.

Disclaimer