Euro / U.S. DollarShort
H4 trendline resistance stood firm!
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, has spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, threatening the possibility of moves lower.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Despite a spirited advance in early trade Tuesday, EUR/USD failed to maintain a presence north of highs at 1.0888. The end-of-day correction formed what appears to be a gravestone doji candlestick, generally interpreted as a bearish signal among candlestick traders. This, along with Monday’s lacklustre performance, certainly places a question mark on the comeback off the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745.
Demand at 1.0526/1.0638 continues to call for attention, an area extended from March 2017. Additionally, technical research has a potential ABCD correction (orange) lining up around the upper edge of the aforementioned demand.
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) continues to roll lower, down since mid-May 2018.
H4 timeframe:
Tuesday’s analysis underscored the possibility of an upside attempt towards trendline resistance (1.1147), positioned close by tops around the 1.0890 neighbourhood and a 61.8% Fib level at 1.0888.
As evident from the chart, European hours welcomed price action at the said resistances on Tuesday, pencilling in a notable move to the downside amid US hours. Aside from the possibility of support developing off last Friday’s low at 1.0727, demand at 1.0602/1.0630 remains an obvious target.
H1 timeframe:
The reaction off the current H4 trendline resistance, as well as a broad-based USD pullback, guided intraday flow sub 1.0850 as we stepped into US trading Tuesday, identifying the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0814 as the next possible floor.
1.08, if tested, may turn the dial, though having seen the response from H4 trendline resistance, buyers are likely to be squeezed here, highlighting a supply-turned demand base coming in from 1.0774/1.0761.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly demand at 1.0488/1.0912 has so far encouraged little to the upside. Daily price is also struggling to capitalise on the rebound from 1.0745, recently shaping back-to-back shooting star candlestick patterns, emphasising a bearish tone.
It was underlined in yesterday’s analysis that H4 trendline resistance (1.1147) will likely be of interest for sellers and that a move beneath 1.0850 on the H1 timeframe could see traders reduce risk to breakeven.
On account of the above, short sellers from the said H4 trendline resistance have likely reduced risk to breakeven, with intraday crosshairs now fixed on the 100-period SMA on the H1 timeframe and the 1.08 handle. A break of 1.08 would light up the path to 1.0774/1.0761 on the H1 timeframe, persuading further selling. The ultimate target for shorts, nonetheless, is set at daily demand discussed above from 1.0526/1.0638.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, has spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, threatening the possibility of moves lower.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Despite a spirited advance in early trade Tuesday, EUR/USD failed to maintain a presence north of highs at 1.0888. The end-of-day correction formed what appears to be a gravestone doji candlestick, generally interpreted as a bearish signal among candlestick traders. This, along with Monday’s lacklustre performance, certainly places a question mark on the comeback off the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745.
Demand at 1.0526/1.0638 continues to call for attention, an area extended from March 2017. Additionally, technical research has a potential ABCD correction (orange) lining up around the upper edge of the aforementioned demand.
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) continues to roll lower, down since mid-May 2018.
H4 timeframe:
Tuesday’s analysis underscored the possibility of an upside attempt towards trendline resistance (1.1147), positioned close by tops around the 1.0890 neighbourhood and a 61.8% Fib level at 1.0888.
As evident from the chart, European hours welcomed price action at the said resistances on Tuesday, pencilling in a notable move to the downside amid US hours. Aside from the possibility of support developing off last Friday’s low at 1.0727, demand at 1.0602/1.0630 remains an obvious target.
H1 timeframe:
The reaction off the current H4 trendline resistance, as well as a broad-based USD pullback, guided intraday flow sub 1.0850 as we stepped into US trading Tuesday, identifying the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0814 as the next possible floor.
1.08, if tested, may turn the dial, though having seen the response from H4 trendline resistance, buyers are likely to be squeezed here, highlighting a supply-turned demand base coming in from 1.0774/1.0761.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly demand at 1.0488/1.0912 has so far encouraged little to the upside. Daily price is also struggling to capitalise on the rebound from 1.0745, recently shaping back-to-back shooting star candlestick patterns, emphasising a bearish tone.
It was underlined in yesterday’s analysis that H4 trendline resistance (1.1147) will likely be of interest for sellers and that a move beneath 1.0850 on the H1 timeframe could see traders reduce risk to breakeven.
On account of the above, short sellers from the said H4 trendline resistance have likely reduced risk to breakeven, with intraday crosshairs now fixed on the 100-period SMA on the H1 timeframe and the 1.08 handle. A break of 1.08 would light up the path to 1.0774/1.0761 on the H1 timeframe, persuading further selling. The ultimate target for shorts, nonetheless, is set at daily demand discussed above from 1.0526/1.0638.
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