Previous week was the relatively calmer one on financial markets, to some extent due to lack of new information regarding trade tariffs. In addition, Friday was a holiday on Western markets, and was a non-working day, same as Monday in the week ahead. Usually, the pre-holiday period is a relatively calmer one on markets. As for macro data posted for the US, the Retail Sales in March were higher by 1,4% a bit higher from market consensus of 1,3%. The Industrial Production in March dropped by -0,3% for the month, while on a yearly basis was standing at 1,3%. Building permits preliminary for March were at the level of 1.482M a bit higher from market estimate of 1,45M. Building permits were by 1,6% higher on a monthly basis.
The major event during the previous week was the ECB meeting and decision on facility rate. For one more time the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In an after the meeting press conference, the SCB President Lagarde expressed some urgency in light of ongoing trade tensions as well as increased disinflationary pressures. The wholesale prices in Germany dropped by -0,2% in March, leading to an increase of 1,3% on a yearly basis. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for April in Germany reached the level of -14,0, which was significantly below estimated 9,5. The Inflation rate in the Euro Zone final for March was standing at 0,6%, a bit higher from previous 0,4%, but in line with market expectations. Inflation rate on a yearly basis in march was at the level of 2,2%. The Producers Price Index in Germany in March was -0,2% for the year and -0,7% for the month. Both figures were well below market estimates.
Friday, April 11th, was the critical day from the point of technical analysis, considering that the market pushed the eurusd toward the long term resistance line at 1,14. As expected, the market used the previous week to test this level. The moving range of the currency pair was between 1,1273 and 1,1406. Evidently, at this point of time there was no strength to cross the 1,14 level. The RSI continues to move at the highly overbought market side, above the level of 70. Interesting development occurred with MA lines, where MA 50 crossed the MA 200 from the downside. This formation in technical analysis is called the golden-cross, indicating high potential for a trend reversal, in this case, in the favour of the euro.
The week ahead will start slowly, considering Easter holidays on the Western markets. At the same time, there is no currently important news scheduled for a release. The final Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April is set for a release, however, the market is not expecting to see some significant change from the previous post. In this sense, there is a higher probability of a relaxation in the eurusd currency pair. The 1,14 level could be shortly tested again, while on the downside, there is equal probability that the 1,12 support level could be tested again.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for April for Germany and the Euro Zone, Ifo Business Climate in Germany in April,
USD: S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for April, Durable Goods Orders in March, Existing Home Sales in March, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for April.
The major event during the previous week was the ECB meeting and decision on facility rate. For one more time the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In an after the meeting press conference, the SCB President Lagarde expressed some urgency in light of ongoing trade tensions as well as increased disinflationary pressures. The wholesale prices in Germany dropped by -0,2% in March, leading to an increase of 1,3% on a yearly basis. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for April in Germany reached the level of -14,0, which was significantly below estimated 9,5. The Inflation rate in the Euro Zone final for March was standing at 0,6%, a bit higher from previous 0,4%, but in line with market expectations. Inflation rate on a yearly basis in march was at the level of 2,2%. The Producers Price Index in Germany in March was -0,2% for the year and -0,7% for the month. Both figures were well below market estimates.
Friday, April 11th, was the critical day from the point of technical analysis, considering that the market pushed the eurusd toward the long term resistance line at 1,14. As expected, the market used the previous week to test this level. The moving range of the currency pair was between 1,1273 and 1,1406. Evidently, at this point of time there was no strength to cross the 1,14 level. The RSI continues to move at the highly overbought market side, above the level of 70. Interesting development occurred with MA lines, where MA 50 crossed the MA 200 from the downside. This formation in technical analysis is called the golden-cross, indicating high potential for a trend reversal, in this case, in the favour of the euro.
The week ahead will start slowly, considering Easter holidays on the Western markets. At the same time, there is no currently important news scheduled for a release. The final Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April is set for a release, however, the market is not expecting to see some significant change from the previous post. In this sense, there is a higher probability of a relaxation in the eurusd currency pair. The 1,14 level could be shortly tested again, while on the downside, there is equal probability that the 1,12 support level could be tested again.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for April for Germany and the Euro Zone, Ifo Business Climate in Germany in April,
USD: S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for April, Durable Goods Orders in March, Existing Home Sales in March, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for April.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.