Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal (If current FVG support holds)
Bias: Short-term bullish, looking for a continuation of the bounce.
Rationale: The price responded positively to an earlier low and is completing an FVG at this juncture. If this FVG is supported and the price breaks out above the latest bullish order block, then a reversal may be signaled.
Entry: Wait for a clear break and test back to the current high range or a demonstrated bullish candle pattern in the FVG area being filled. An entry might be at about 1.1520-1.1530 should confirmation be observed.
Target: The following big resistance level, which could be the liquidity pool ($S) at 1.1540, and thereafter, at 1.1580-1.1600, the
Stop-Loss: Below recent low or an important support level, i.e., below 1.1500 or current Bullish OB.
Scenario 2: Continuing Bearish Pressure (In case current FVG gets filled and it fails to hold)
Bias: Short-term bearish, expecting to see a continuation of the downtrend after the FVG is filled.
Rationale: If it extends this ongoing FVG and then shows signs towards rejection (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns, failure to break through resistances), it could be signaling continuation in the prior downtrend.
Entry: Look for bearish confirmation after the FVG fills, which would be a break down through the newest low or low side of the current range. Potential entry would be at 1.1500-1.1510 on a confirmed break down.
Target: The "Bullish OB" around 1.1440-1.1450, and potentially the lower FVG around 1.1400.
Stop-Loss: At or higher than the newest swing top or key level of resistance, e.g. 1.1530-1.1540
Relevant Factors:
Risk Management: You should always use appropriate position sizing and use a stop-loss to manage your risk.
Confirmation: Hold out for firm price action confirmation before entering any trade.
News Events: Be aware of any scheduled economic news releases or events that could impact EUR/USD, potentially creating huge volatility.
Bigger Timeframes: Always consider the bigger picture context (i.e., day, week) in order to obtain a general trend.
Bias: Short-term bullish, looking for a continuation of the bounce.
Rationale: The price responded positively to an earlier low and is completing an FVG at this juncture. If this FVG is supported and the price breaks out above the latest bullish order block, then a reversal may be signaled.
Entry: Wait for a clear break and test back to the current high range or a demonstrated bullish candle pattern in the FVG area being filled. An entry might be at about 1.1520-1.1530 should confirmation be observed.
Target: The following big resistance level, which could be the liquidity pool ($S) at 1.1540, and thereafter, at 1.1580-1.1600, the
Stop-Loss: Below recent low or an important support level, i.e., below 1.1500 or current Bullish OB.
Scenario 2: Continuing Bearish Pressure (In case current FVG gets filled and it fails to hold)
Bias: Short-term bearish, expecting to see a continuation of the downtrend after the FVG is filled.
Rationale: If it extends this ongoing FVG and then shows signs towards rejection (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns, failure to break through resistances), it could be signaling continuation in the prior downtrend.
Entry: Look for bearish confirmation after the FVG fills, which would be a break down through the newest low or low side of the current range. Potential entry would be at 1.1500-1.1510 on a confirmed break down.
Target: The "Bullish OB" around 1.1440-1.1450, and potentially the lower FVG around 1.1400.
Stop-Loss: At or higher than the newest swing top or key level of resistance, e.g. 1.1530-1.1540
Relevant Factors:
Risk Management: You should always use appropriate position sizing and use a stop-loss to manage your risk.
Confirmation: Hold out for firm price action confirmation before entering any trade.
News Events: Be aware of any scheduled economic news releases or events that could impact EUR/USD, potentially creating huge volatility.
Bigger Timeframes: Always consider the bigger picture context (i.e., day, week) in order to obtain a general trend.
Note
Break of structure: A clear break of the local higher low verifies a prospective change of trend to the downside.OB + FVG rejection: Here, very strong seller dominance was present, which again created a clean rejection.
Liquidity points: Potential sell-side liquidity points are 1.1450 and 1.1400
Impulsive sell-off: Today's H1 candle shows strong bearish pressure.
Trade active
Division of profit: Declare that the profit should be divided in equal proportions.Note
The level now stands at the red OB+FVG resistance zone 1.1600–1.1620, probably where selling pressure occurs.A sell signal may arise if there are detected patterns of rejection or candlestick reversals.
Target: Green/gray OB+FVG support zone 1.1530–1.1550 or the 1.1500 level.
Stop Loss: Above 1.1620.
Note
Whait German Ifo Business Climate eventrelease candle confirmation spreads widen on data drops
Size positions for event volatility.
Note
The actual Ifo index of 88.4 which exceeded the forecast has a positive effect on the euro and supports the EUR/USD upward scenario if the pair manages to hold above 1.1600
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.