Euro / U.S. DollarShort
EUR/USD Fed monetary policy updates, data analysis
In this post I will mention the FED-ECB monetary policy updates, inflation updates, data analysis, and what price action to expect ahead accordingly?
FUNDAMENYAL KEYQUOTES
1- FED monetary policy and inflation updates >>
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he could support an announcement soon on scaling back the central bank's bond purchases if the next two monthly employment reports show continued gains -
- According to calendar release the Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun) has dropped to 0.4% signaling a modest drop in the U.S. inflation -
- Fed held interest rates near zero, and will maintain asset purchases at $120 billion a month until " substantial progress " is made on inflation and employment -
( YES THE FED IS CURRENTLY AS DOVISH AS THE ECB BUT THE SOMEWHAT HAWKISH SHFITING TONE EVEN IF IT IS BEING DELAYED IS SUPPORTING THE MONETARY SENTIMENT ON THE USD SIDE AND PREVENTING A BREAK ABOVE 1.1950 IN THE LONG TERM RANGE )
2- ECB monetary policy and EU inflation updates
- German inflation jumped to the highest level since 2008 as coronavirus restrictions were lifted and economy reopened -
- According to calendar release the CPI (YoY)(Jul) signaled a rise to 2.2% from 2% forecasted and 1.9% previous - (INFLATION INDICATOR)
- ECB policy updates ( will persist with ultra loose stimulus until it has solid evidence it can sustainably hit its new inflation goal of 2% )
( THIS MEANS POLICY MAKERS CAN KEEP RATES AT A RECORD LOW FOR LONGER AND EXTEND ITS BOND BUYING, WON'T NECESSARILY REACT IMMEDIATELY IF INFLATION OVERSHOOTS THEIR TARGET FOR A PERIOD, ALSO THIS IS ANOTHER CONFIRMATION PRICE SHALL NOT BREAK ABOVE 1.1950 BUT ON THE CONTRARY IS AT RISK OF FALLING BELOW 1.1850 )
3- In the U.S. Senate is heading toward passage this week of a $550 billion infrastructure bill that would mark a milestone for Biden's economic agenda
( POSITIVE FOR USD AND EMPLOYMENT PROGRESS FORECASTS)
4- In the U.S. Anthony Fauci said a return to the lockdowns of 2020 is unlikely even after reports of outbreaks among fully vaccinated people.
CONCLUSION
- SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE (1.1900-1.1800), BUT IF TO EXPECT ANY INTENSE MOVEMENTS THEN IT WOULD BE (1.1920-1.1780) -
- LONG TERM PRICE RANGE (1.1950-1.1750) -
- MONETARY POLICY SENTIMENT IS STILL ON THE USD SIDE BUT HOLDING THE UPPER RANGE IS DUE TO UPBEAT EU CALENDAR DATA -
- TO HOLD SHORT POSITIONS FROM ANY POINT NEAR (1.1920-1.1950) CONSIDERING FAKEOUTS CAN EXTEND TO 1.1970 BUT IS VERY LOW EXPECTED -
- TO CONSIDER 50-60 PIPS PROFIT DUE TO THE EXPECTED VOLATILITY -
- ALL IN ALL REVERSALS ARE EXPECTED AT 1.1920-1.1950 ZONE, TO BREAK BELOW 1.1850 OR AT LEAST TO CONSOLIDATE THE 1.1890-1.1850 TILL FURTHER MONETARY POLICY UPDATES -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
FUNDAMENYAL KEYQUOTES
1- FED monetary policy and inflation updates >>
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he could support an announcement soon on scaling back the central bank's bond purchases if the next two monthly employment reports show continued gains -
- According to calendar release the Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun) has dropped to 0.4% signaling a modest drop in the U.S. inflation -
- Fed held interest rates near zero, and will maintain asset purchases at $120 billion a month until " substantial progress " is made on inflation and employment -
( YES THE FED IS CURRENTLY AS DOVISH AS THE ECB BUT THE SOMEWHAT HAWKISH SHFITING TONE EVEN IF IT IS BEING DELAYED IS SUPPORTING THE MONETARY SENTIMENT ON THE USD SIDE AND PREVENTING A BREAK ABOVE 1.1950 IN THE LONG TERM RANGE )
2- ECB monetary policy and EU inflation updates
- German inflation jumped to the highest level since 2008 as coronavirus restrictions were lifted and economy reopened -
- According to calendar release the CPI (YoY)(Jul) signaled a rise to 2.2% from 2% forecasted and 1.9% previous - (INFLATION INDICATOR)
- ECB policy updates ( will persist with ultra loose stimulus until it has solid evidence it can sustainably hit its new inflation goal of 2% )
( THIS MEANS POLICY MAKERS CAN KEEP RATES AT A RECORD LOW FOR LONGER AND EXTEND ITS BOND BUYING, WON'T NECESSARILY REACT IMMEDIATELY IF INFLATION OVERSHOOTS THEIR TARGET FOR A PERIOD, ALSO THIS IS ANOTHER CONFIRMATION PRICE SHALL NOT BREAK ABOVE 1.1950 BUT ON THE CONTRARY IS AT RISK OF FALLING BELOW 1.1850 )
3- In the U.S. Senate is heading toward passage this week of a $550 billion infrastructure bill that would mark a milestone for Biden's economic agenda
( POSITIVE FOR USD AND EMPLOYMENT PROGRESS FORECASTS)
4- In the U.S. Anthony Fauci said a return to the lockdowns of 2020 is unlikely even after reports of outbreaks among fully vaccinated people.
CONCLUSION
- SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE (1.1900-1.1800), BUT IF TO EXPECT ANY INTENSE MOVEMENTS THEN IT WOULD BE (1.1920-1.1780) -
- LONG TERM PRICE RANGE (1.1950-1.1750) -
- MONETARY POLICY SENTIMENT IS STILL ON THE USD SIDE BUT HOLDING THE UPPER RANGE IS DUE TO UPBEAT EU CALENDAR DATA -
- TO HOLD SHORT POSITIONS FROM ANY POINT NEAR (1.1920-1.1950) CONSIDERING FAKEOUTS CAN EXTEND TO 1.1970 BUT IS VERY LOW EXPECTED -
- TO CONSIDER 50-60 PIPS PROFIT DUE TO THE EXPECTED VOLATILITY -
- ALL IN ALL REVERSALS ARE EXPECTED AT 1.1920-1.1950 ZONE, TO BREAK BELOW 1.1850 OR AT LEAST TO CONSOLIDATE THE 1.1890-1.1850 TILL FURTHER MONETARY POLICY UPDATES -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.