Hey traders!
So as promised friday here's a breakdown for the week ahead for EURUSD and how I see things going forward.
First let's recap what happened on the larger timeframe: Daily:
Few things to note:
- The Weekly is in a downtrend since last year (and monthly for even longer)
- There has not been a single proper retracement until now as we finally did retrace almost to the 79%
That can mean two things: either we're gonna keep pushing up to make new highs as price reversed , or we're most likely done with the retracement and will push lower to target possibly the parity (remember all the talk after trump's election about heading straight to parity? we just broke above the election price level and diving back down at the moment) for new lows and and old important gap left below parity (but let's not get ahead of ourselves).
In both cases we can play a short position on EURUSD: If we're gonna make new highs, we'll probably get a pullback after the massive push up from march.. And if we're gonna make new lows then shorting is very obvious.
Why going short now? Simple answer: all the timeframes turned bearish this week, with the daily finally breaking the bullish structure on thursday's close (and more decisively on friday), while the 4h finally turned bearish on thursday as well (again if barely, but clearly on friday).
Since we want to trade with the trend, it makes no sense currently to take any long position until the situation change (which would be a break of this week's high)
To support the idea we can also look at the RSI's divergences, which appears on every timeframe but more importantly on the Daily recently and the 4H one which made a very respected trendline, only broken in what seems to be a fakeout when it made the last new high just to fall back in line afterwards (last liquidity grab)
Now about the entry to go short.
It's been a really tough week and with no clear easy entry on the 4+H timeframe imo, but while we had a good retracement on tuesday (while the trend was still up though), we didn't get any since then, which might give us an opportunity this week (unless it decides to dump real hard like it pumped real hard on the way up).
We have one very important level (currently, but it might change if price just keep going down, I'll try to update this page until we get the actual entry) at the 79%ish retracement level.
That's around where we have a big 4h gap that could get mitigated for the most ideal entry with the highest risk/reward ratio (around the 1.0885 level) with a stoploss around 1.093 for the safest location (there is a 4h gap there and while I think the retracement there was deep enough, it's a possibility that we'll be efficient enough to close this), or the 1.0918 level that should be safe.
That would be the ideal most efficient case, which is not necessarely the most likely, especially if we open going down on monday. Also I don't have the new pivots for the week since the markets are still close at the time of writing, I'll update that tomorrow if I have the time)
In the case it does pullback for a retracement, I would think 1.0873 is a more realistic target for a deep retracement, at a good support/resistance zone, which I believe to be still quite deep.
Monday has some news (unlike friday which reflects in the terrible volume and awkward movements despite being the quadruple witching day) so we might get those deep movement happening, on the news maybe even, in which case you'll have to be quick and nimble to catch the move, just prepare and be ready, do not react on impulse while seeing big candles and big movements.
How about the targets?
Like I mentioned we could be aiming for new lows on the pair.. or we might just be in a pullback on the daily, in which case we should be targeting the low hanging fruit that fits both narrative (and still grants a huge amount of pips)
And that would be the daily golden zone retracement at a very big support/resistance over the years (and in recent weeks) at around 1.053
That level should see reaction no matter what the case is and getting out of a short at that level should be great since we could still re enter short higher on a reaction if the market gives us the signal.
And if this was just a retracement to go higher then you would most likely exit at around the lows, if not THE low.
Of course we'll have to see how the market reacts etc at those levels when the time comes.
But there you have all my thoughts and intention for the weeks ahead, I wrote enough for you to understand the thoughts behind it, I didn't write all the technical details with the RSI etc but you can make it up from the screenshots etc I believe as it's been a long post already.
Here's what the big trade could be with more than 300pips to grab on the way down.
At the time of writing it's hard to place an exact entry as it could be decided either with the RSI or lower than expected if the price dives further before retracing.
But you have the big picture and you can go from there.
I'll be posting in the mind section this week as usual to update in a more reactive way, but if you set alerts at all the levels mentioned you shouldn't have to be staring at the screen for no reason!
Get plenty of rest, it's probably gonna be an eventful week with a lot of movement and possibly lots of big news (ukraine war, tariff approaching on the 2nd april etc etc)
So as promised friday here's a breakdown for the week ahead for EURUSD and how I see things going forward.
First let's recap what happened on the larger timeframe: Daily:
Few things to note:
- The Weekly is in a downtrend since last year (and monthly for even longer)
- There has not been a single proper retracement until now as we finally did retrace almost to the 79%
That can mean two things: either we're gonna keep pushing up to make new highs as price reversed , or we're most likely done with the retracement and will push lower to target possibly the parity (remember all the talk after trump's election about heading straight to parity? we just broke above the election price level and diving back down at the moment) for new lows and and old important gap left below parity (but let's not get ahead of ourselves).
In both cases we can play a short position on EURUSD: If we're gonna make new highs, we'll probably get a pullback after the massive push up from march.. And if we're gonna make new lows then shorting is very obvious.
Why going short now? Simple answer: all the timeframes turned bearish this week, with the daily finally breaking the bullish structure on thursday's close (and more decisively on friday), while the 4h finally turned bearish on thursday as well (again if barely, but clearly on friday).
Since we want to trade with the trend, it makes no sense currently to take any long position until the situation change (which would be a break of this week's high)
To support the idea we can also look at the RSI's divergences, which appears on every timeframe but more importantly on the Daily recently and the 4H one which made a very respected trendline, only broken in what seems to be a fakeout when it made the last new high just to fall back in line afterwards (last liquidity grab)
Now about the entry to go short.
It's been a really tough week and with no clear easy entry on the 4+H timeframe imo, but while we had a good retracement on tuesday (while the trend was still up though), we didn't get any since then, which might give us an opportunity this week (unless it decides to dump real hard like it pumped real hard on the way up).
We have one very important level (currently, but it might change if price just keep going down, I'll try to update this page until we get the actual entry) at the 79%ish retracement level.
That's around where we have a big 4h gap that could get mitigated for the most ideal entry with the highest risk/reward ratio (around the 1.0885 level) with a stoploss around 1.093 for the safest location (there is a 4h gap there and while I think the retracement there was deep enough, it's a possibility that we'll be efficient enough to close this), or the 1.0918 level that should be safe.
That would be the ideal most efficient case, which is not necessarely the most likely, especially if we open going down on monday. Also I don't have the new pivots for the week since the markets are still close at the time of writing, I'll update that tomorrow if I have the time)
In the case it does pullback for a retracement, I would think 1.0873 is a more realistic target for a deep retracement, at a good support/resistance zone, which I believe to be still quite deep.
Monday has some news (unlike friday which reflects in the terrible volume and awkward movements despite being the quadruple witching day) so we might get those deep movement happening, on the news maybe even, in which case you'll have to be quick and nimble to catch the move, just prepare and be ready, do not react on impulse while seeing big candles and big movements.
How about the targets?
Like I mentioned we could be aiming for new lows on the pair.. or we might just be in a pullback on the daily, in which case we should be targeting the low hanging fruit that fits both narrative (and still grants a huge amount of pips)
And that would be the daily golden zone retracement at a very big support/resistance over the years (and in recent weeks) at around 1.053
That level should see reaction no matter what the case is and getting out of a short at that level should be great since we could still re enter short higher on a reaction if the market gives us the signal.
And if this was just a retracement to go higher then you would most likely exit at around the lows, if not THE low.
Of course we'll have to see how the market reacts etc at those levels when the time comes.
But there you have all my thoughts and intention for the weeks ahead, I wrote enough for you to understand the thoughts behind it, I didn't write all the technical details with the RSI etc but you can make it up from the screenshots etc I believe as it's been a long post already.
Here's what the big trade could be with more than 300pips to grab on the way down.
At the time of writing it's hard to place an exact entry as it could be decided either with the RSI or lower than expected if the price dives further before retracing.
But you have the big picture and you can go from there.
I'll be posting in the mind section this week as usual to update in a more reactive way, but if you set alerts at all the levels mentioned you shouldn't have to be staring at the screen for no reason!
Get plenty of rest, it's probably gonna be an eventful week with a lot of movement and possibly lots of big news (ukraine war, tariff approaching on the 2nd april etc etc)
Note
Soooo as you can see we missed the entry by really not much at all.. I'm still shocked we didn't break the double top/equal highs to be honest which would have triggered my sell order.. But it is what it is. The idea is still to go short, just need to update the levels as we go.
Right now I would keep the entry where it is though as we just reached a strong support zone. The last one in fact before the big drop all the way down, so we can expect buying pressure for a pullback. How deep? We shall see, but for now I'll maintain my current entry level and possibly enter half the position there and half a bit higher even, depending on the price action if/when we get to that entry level as I believe there is quite a chance for a deep pullback before going further south.
Anyway today wasn't meant to be I guess, no need to chase the price now, if it pulls back it's gonna be only more painful.
Note
Just to keep everyone up to date. I believe in the next 4h candle we'll get the entry short. I'll be trading it actively so I won't post an update here until I'm done setting things up, I'll probably call it in the minds section though.
Just be on your toes if you want to short, with the news also coming in that next candle.
Wishing you all the best of luck!
Note
Well, what a crappy day!I really expected more action after the 4h candle post I made, but basically everything died down and we're flat on the day, posting another doji like daily candle it seems.
Anyway like I posted in the mind section more thoroughly, I still believe the idea stands, but like this morning during london session we might give a go at the support level once again, deeper this time and see how much the buyers will step in as their last stand before the big drop toward the 1.05ish.
This morning we had a perfect entry long at the bottom on the hourly RSI trendline.. which I didn't take to be fair (I wasn't in the right set of mind despite my alert being triggered, there are some days like those..)
I think we might get a repeat of the sort tomorrow so alerts are set once again and hopefully we'll get another push after all the indecision for a deeper pullback and finally get that short entry.
If we were to break to the downside however, I'll probably just go short on a retest of the breakout, but with a much lower probability of success, so hopefully it's not the scenario that will play out.
Just watch for Asian's session (I don't expect much from it lately) and more importantly the 7am GMT moves at the london open which tends to be the most important ones lately. Also keep an eye on DXY as always as it's giving a bit more clear signals for the past 2 weeks.
Hopefully tomorrow is the day we get some trade locked in!
Note
An eventful day today, but no entry still. (although I did take a short but with a terrible execution and got out at breakeven, more details in the minds section if you're interested)Today we finally got a green day after 6 massive red daily candle in a row, so what now?
Not much actually:
The trend is still down for one. The daily is obviously in a bear structure as well as the 4h that didn't manage to close above the previous lower high (barely), despite the big upper wick, showing the bulls didn't have enough momentum.. and while the 1h did turn barely bullish, it's more inconclusive than anything else.
And while the bulls didn't break the upside, the bears didn't shine either. You can see on the 4H that it came back down after making a new low to fill the 4H gap perfectly and respecting the weekly S1 pivot to the T, just showing how bears were not ready to commit to any more downside for the time being.
And at the end of the day we still have a bearish market in a pullback with a lot of indecision on what to do next: pull back deeper for a proper pull back (where we want to short), or just continue lower tomorrow from this point on.
After today back trade I took earlier, I want to do things properly again and just wait for a proper level to short with a much better risk:reward and not try to rush a trade.
If we take the fib from the previous proper pullback to the new lows, we can see the golden zone aligns almost perfectly with the weekly pivot (that we barely touched on monday) and our entry point, which I still won't touch right above the equal highs formed earlier this week, the confluence is real and well stacked.
Will we just go a bit higher, hit the RSI bearish divergence on the 1h or 4h and drop? Maybe, but then it's a trade that was not meant to be and it's fine, there will be better entries once price finally pulls back to our levels.
We can also observe the DXY movement, which for the past 2 weeks have been a lot cleared than the EUR:
It's in a very clear and clean uptrend, albeit without a good retracement yet. And right now it's as indecisive as it can be as you can see on the RSI. The last 4h candle closed on a doji, making the RSI sits right on top of the hidden bullish and regular bullish divergence both (after breaking the bearish divergence to the upside first). Which should indicate more upside for the dollar. But a pullback to the weekly pivot like EUR isn't out of the question.
So in resume: not much changed, we have a clear entry target, a clear invalidation target, a clear TP target and clear signals to follow. If we stick to that to the letter we might get a great trade in due time. And since nothing is guaranteed, even if the trade were to be a loss, the risk:reward, the confluence of resistances etc make it an A setup worth taking every single time, as long as risk is well managed.
More to come tomorrow with more news etc. Be safe, don't do newbie mistakes like me and don't fall for FOMO, let price come to you and follow your plan, execute the plan and move onto the next trade.
Trade active
There you go, it took forever but we're finally in the trade!At least I am!
I'll monitor the trade since it's a big and long one, and I'll move at breakeven if/when we reach the previous lows at 1.0733.
Good luck if you're in the trade as well since I didn't expect the trade to happen right on tariff announcement day so that might play against us to be honest.
But it is what it is, SL is set and now I'll let it play out!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.