EU Hail Mary
Long term play potential, based on higher TF interpretation, and seeking to reduce risk via execution. I have decided to reverse all heavy short considerations for the EURO, for the next 3/4 month period.
My trades will be long only plays once the previous swing high at 1.3710 is breached. Any pull back will be seen as a dip buying opportunity. Analysis has been done with consideration of recent bond yield moves and reversal of euro correlation with specific asset classes.
Stops will be as tight as possible against previous swing lows; therefore, a long at market on Monday, would have a stop below 1.3460. Long considerations will be invalidated should the Euro retrace below 1.3100.
Primary Entries will be established on a 4/5 hundred pip correction once a high is placed around the 1.3740/80 region. Options with either a Jan (Pushing the envelope) or a March expiry will then be purchased. The options will be OTM and fairly cheap after a correction, they will also provide an opportunity to purchase strikes that are within target areas rather than having to rely on extrinsic premium elements.
Second large entries would be made against the 31 handle when 1.3450 gives way.
First Target: 1.39 region (Close 1/5)
2nd Target: 1.4122 (Close 2/5)
3rd Target: 1.4400 (Close 1/5)
4th Target: 1.4721 (Close 1/5)
I expect the 4/5 hundred pip correction to be the result of completing targets above, as well as Draghi talking the Euro down. Once this has materialised I will be longing the spot at decent corrective levels along with purchasing 1.38/1.40 calls.
Phase 2 involves shorting the spot as the options go into the money for a push towards the yellow trendline. Phase 3 involves re-buying for the final Hail Mary push towards 1.60 and above targets.
My trades will be long only plays once the previous swing high at 1.3710 is breached. Any pull back will be seen as a dip buying opportunity. Analysis has been done with consideration of recent bond yield moves and reversal of euro correlation with specific asset classes.
Stops will be as tight as possible against previous swing lows; therefore, a long at market on Monday, would have a stop below 1.3460. Long considerations will be invalidated should the Euro retrace below 1.3100.
Primary Entries will be established on a 4/5 hundred pip correction once a high is placed around the 1.3740/80 region. Options with either a Jan (Pushing the envelope) or a March expiry will then be purchased. The options will be OTM and fairly cheap after a correction, they will also provide an opportunity to purchase strikes that are within target areas rather than having to rely on extrinsic premium elements.
Second large entries would be made against the 31 handle when 1.3450 gives way.
First Target: 1.39 region (Close 1/5)
2nd Target: 1.4122 (Close 2/5)
3rd Target: 1.4400 (Close 1/5)
4th Target: 1.4721 (Close 1/5)
I expect the 4/5 hundred pip correction to be the result of completing targets above, as well as Draghi talking the Euro down. Once this has materialised I will be longing the spot at decent corrective levels along with purchasing 1.38/1.40 calls.
Phase 2 involves shorting the spot as the options go into the money for a push towards the yellow trendline. Phase 3 involves re-buying for the final Hail Mary push towards 1.60 and above targets.
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