Below is a concise Dow Theory–style analysis of the provided EUR/USD (15-minute, Heikin Ashi) chart. Keep in mind that Dow Theory is traditionally applied to longer timeframes (daily/weekly), but the core principles can still guide short-term trading insights.
---
1. Identify the Prevailing (Primary) Trend on This Timeframe
Short-Term Trend: On the 15-minute chart, price appears to be oscillating between roughly 1.0840–1.0900. Within this range, recent swing highs and lows suggest a mild downward bias:
After peaking near 1.0900–1.0920, price has made a sequence of lower highs (near ~1.0890–1.0900) and slightly lower lows (down to ~1.0840–1.0850).
This indicates a short-term downtrend or at least a sideways range with a downward tilt.
2. Examine Secondary (Counter-Trend) Moves
Secondary Rallies: On the chart, rallies toward 1.0890–1.0900 have been short-lived and followed by pullbacks. In Dow Theory terms, these look like counter-trend bounces that fail to surpass the prior swing high.
Shallow Retracements: If price continues to fail near the same overhead zone (1.0890–1.0900) and consistently puts in new or equal lows (1.0840 area), that confirms sellers remain in control.
3. Look for Volume or Momentum Confirmation
Volume: The screenshot does not clearly show volume data, but in Dow Theory, you want to see volume increasing when the price moves in the direction of the prevailing trend (in this case, downward on this 15m view). Decreasing volume on bounces (counter-trend rallies) also supports a continuation lower.
Momentum Indicator: At the bottom of your chart, it looks like an oscillator (maybe an MACD or RSI-type indicator). If that momentum indicator fails to make higher highs on the rallies or diverges negatively, it supports a continued short-term downtrend.
4. Assess Potential Trend Changes
Bearish Continuation: If the pair definitively breaks below ~1.0840–1.0850 (the marked “Point 1” area), that would confirm a continuation of the short-term downtrend, potentially targeting the next support level (look for prior swing lows on higher timeframes).
Reversal Signal: Conversely, if EUR/USD breaks and closes above the recent lower high (~1.0900–1.0910) with strong momentum, that would challenge the current downward structure and could signal the start of a short-term uptrend.
5. Synthesis in Dow Terms
The primary trend on the 15m chart appears modestly bearish or sideways with a bearish tilt.
Secondary rallies toward 1.0890–1.0900 have so far been contained.
A decisive move below 1.0840–1.0850 would confirm a continuation of the short-term downtrend.
A breakout above 1.0900–1.0910 would indicate a possible shift back to a short-term uptrend.
---
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: ~1.0890–1.0900
Support: ~1.0840–1.0850
If price continues to post lower highs under 1.0900 and eventually closes below 1.0840, Dow Theory would suggest the short-term downtrend is intact. On the other hand, a break above 1.0900–1.0910 could imply that short-term buyers have regained control.
---
Disclaimer: This is a technical viewpoint based on Dow Theory principles and does not constitute financial advice. Always combine multiple forms of analysis (technical, fundamental, risk management) before making any trading decisions.
---
1. Identify the Prevailing (Primary) Trend on This Timeframe
Short-Term Trend: On the 15-minute chart, price appears to be oscillating between roughly 1.0840–1.0900. Within this range, recent swing highs and lows suggest a mild downward bias:
After peaking near 1.0900–1.0920, price has made a sequence of lower highs (near ~1.0890–1.0900) and slightly lower lows (down to ~1.0840–1.0850).
This indicates a short-term downtrend or at least a sideways range with a downward tilt.
2. Examine Secondary (Counter-Trend) Moves
Secondary Rallies: On the chart, rallies toward 1.0890–1.0900 have been short-lived and followed by pullbacks. In Dow Theory terms, these look like counter-trend bounces that fail to surpass the prior swing high.
Shallow Retracements: If price continues to fail near the same overhead zone (1.0890–1.0900) and consistently puts in new or equal lows (1.0840 area), that confirms sellers remain in control.
3. Look for Volume or Momentum Confirmation
Volume: The screenshot does not clearly show volume data, but in Dow Theory, you want to see volume increasing when the price moves in the direction of the prevailing trend (in this case, downward on this 15m view). Decreasing volume on bounces (counter-trend rallies) also supports a continuation lower.
Momentum Indicator: At the bottom of your chart, it looks like an oscillator (maybe an MACD or RSI-type indicator). If that momentum indicator fails to make higher highs on the rallies or diverges negatively, it supports a continued short-term downtrend.
4. Assess Potential Trend Changes
Bearish Continuation: If the pair definitively breaks below ~1.0840–1.0850 (the marked “Point 1” area), that would confirm a continuation of the short-term downtrend, potentially targeting the next support level (look for prior swing lows on higher timeframes).
Reversal Signal: Conversely, if EUR/USD breaks and closes above the recent lower high (~1.0900–1.0910) with strong momentum, that would challenge the current downward structure and could signal the start of a short-term uptrend.
5. Synthesis in Dow Terms
The primary trend on the 15m chart appears modestly bearish or sideways with a bearish tilt.
Secondary rallies toward 1.0890–1.0900 have so far been contained.
A decisive move below 1.0840–1.0850 would confirm a continuation of the short-term downtrend.
A breakout above 1.0900–1.0910 would indicate a possible shift back to a short-term uptrend.
---
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: ~1.0890–1.0900
Support: ~1.0840–1.0850
If price continues to post lower highs under 1.0900 and eventually closes below 1.0840, Dow Theory would suggest the short-term downtrend is intact. On the other hand, a break above 1.0900–1.0910 could imply that short-term buyers have regained control.
---
Disclaimer: This is a technical viewpoint based on Dow Theory principles and does not constitute financial advice. Always combine multiple forms of analysis (technical, fundamental, risk management) before making any trading decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.