EURUSD: Neutral long term stance, potentially bearish long term
Updated
In this chart I show you the time at mode signal active on chart. Currently, there's a 6 month timeframe downtrend that demands price to hit 0.91505 by May-July 2019, or sooner, and a 2 month signal that is very close to confirming.
Confirmation for this signal can come if we hit 1,07422 during October, or if November-December closes with a high that is lower than 1.10971.
There's a kicker here though, the RgMov indicator -which plots a visual representation of investor sentiment, obtained using a proprietary calculation developed by my mentor, Tim West- is showing a deeper decline than the one observed on the previous bottom, which could be a bullish signal, if we get further confirmation, or simply an increase in bearish sentiment.
If we don't see 0.95047 hit during the next 2 months, this would constitute a bullish signal on close, and I could envision this happening if the Fed disappoints the bears by not hiking interest rates on the December FOMC meeting.
For now, I'm flat EURUSD, but I have long positions in USDSEK, USDJPY, USDCHF and USDNOK.
I'll be monitoring the progress in the dollar to either hold my trades anticipating the lofty long term targets seen here, or, look to flip long if we get reasons to do so.
The best thing is that we will get a big long term signal within 2 months. Stay tuned for updates.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Confirmation for this signal can come if we hit 1,07422 during October, or if November-December closes with a high that is lower than 1.10971.
There's a kicker here though, the RgMov indicator -which plots a visual representation of investor sentiment, obtained using a proprietary calculation developed by my mentor, Tim West- is showing a deeper decline than the one observed on the previous bottom, which could be a bullish signal, if we get further confirmation, or simply an increase in bearish sentiment.
If we don't see 0.95047 hit during the next 2 months, this would constitute a bullish signal on close, and I could envision this happening if the Fed disappoints the bears by not hiking interest rates on the December FOMC meeting.
For now, I'm flat EURUSD, but I have long positions in USDSEK, USDJPY, USDCHF and USDNOK.
I'll be monitoring the progress in the dollar to either hold my trades anticipating the lofty long term targets seen here, or, look to flip long if we get reasons to do so.
The best thing is that we will get a big long term signal within 2 months. Stay tuned for updates.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Note
(another piece of information we can extract from this long term perspective: The Euro could be in a long term but very choppy decline for years to come)Note
Place a box at the 1.032-1.02 range in your charts by the way. This is a strong support level, the next one of interest being 0.9608-0.95951.They could lead to an instant rebound if tested, so keep an eye on them.
Note
Weekly and daily ranges have expanded, the weekly target to validate bearish momentum is the following: If not hit within 3 weeks, bears will lose steam, implying we could see a reversal.
Daily gives us a different target:
I'll post an updated chart with the ECB and FOMC levels.
We could see a strong turning point in the Euro soon.
It could take 3 weeks, though, so be careful if trying longs.
Note
Long term outlook is bearish. It can still be traded on the long side following daily signals since RgMov is up. Right now, I'll start shorting again since we're testing a 2 month timeframe resistance.Note
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