Dissecting the moves in EURUSD - 'RARE' 1HR CHART
Updated
We are going to dissect the moves we traded live in the Telegram and Tradingview chats using EURUSD this week. So let's get started from the beginning …
On Monday those following were notified to start working longs, positioning for a short swing move towards 1.13.
After failing to clear the middle of the range on Tuesday NY session meant and with the main drivers of the week still to come it was a sending early hints for a good opportunity to do some profit taking ahead of Fed.
On Wednesday a rather dovish Fed via inflation triggered the second wave in our flows which lasted till NFP. A retrace all the way back to the bottom of the range right on time for clearing the EZ inflation and NFP double.
Both macro prints came in with my expectations. For those following the daily updates sent you will already know, the expectation was for overshoots on European Inflation (remember we had issued early confirmation on Tuesday) and a slight miss on wage expectations for NFP. This would allow EURUSD to finish the week on a positive note. After ticking both of these boxes it should be sending loud alarms that it’s time to start working longs again from the bottom of the range.
Now it is exactly the same as before .. taking some chips off the table in the middle of our range and leaving the rest for the home-run at 1.13 to complete the ABC sequence.
For those wanting to recap on the macro and foreign policy drivers
Europe is not out of the woods yet … Growth rising via domestic demand. Unemployment falling to new cycle lows. However, PMIs and Germany Ifo readings have not given the rebound I was expecting. A dovish ECB opened the window for further easing via tiering systems yet overshoots on the inflation front on Friday will be enough to take it completely off the table.
US growth beating expectations via increasing inventories looks unsustainable and a reversion is highly likely. Macro data prints are still implying the US remains in good shape and it’s too early to talk about recessions being imminent although capital inflows are starting to dry up and we will mark the turn in the cycle this Autumn.
On the political front, a US-China trade deal is around the corner. I expect the final summit to come in late May. A trade deal will be enough to support the recovery in China and Europe. From a markets perspective on the FX board, a deal will support EUR as well as commodity currencies notably AUD, NZD, CAD and NOK.
A great few trades paying for stops and we are in perfect sync. Well done those following and positioned for the move towards 1.13.
On Monday those following were notified to start working longs, positioning for a short swing move towards 1.13.
After failing to clear the middle of the range on Tuesday NY session meant and with the main drivers of the week still to come it was a sending early hints for a good opportunity to do some profit taking ahead of Fed.
On Wednesday a rather dovish Fed via inflation triggered the second wave in our flows which lasted till NFP. A retrace all the way back to the bottom of the range right on time for clearing the EZ inflation and NFP double.
Both macro prints came in with my expectations. For those following the daily updates sent you will already know, the expectation was for overshoots on European Inflation (remember we had issued early confirmation on Tuesday) and a slight miss on wage expectations for NFP. This would allow EURUSD to finish the week on a positive note. After ticking both of these boxes it should be sending loud alarms that it’s time to start working longs again from the bottom of the range.
Now it is exactly the same as before .. taking some chips off the table in the middle of our range and leaving the rest for the home-run at 1.13 to complete the ABC sequence.
For those wanting to recap on the macro and foreign policy drivers
Europe is not out of the woods yet … Growth rising via domestic demand. Unemployment falling to new cycle lows. However, PMIs and Germany Ifo readings have not given the rebound I was expecting. A dovish ECB opened the window for further easing via tiering systems yet overshoots on the inflation front on Friday will be enough to take it completely off the table.
US growth beating expectations via increasing inventories looks unsustainable and a reversion is highly likely. Macro data prints are still implying the US remains in good shape and it’s too early to talk about recessions being imminent although capital inflows are starting to dry up and we will mark the turn in the cycle this Autumn.
On the political front, a US-China trade deal is around the corner. I expect the final summit to come in late May. A trade deal will be enough to support the recovery in China and Europe. From a markets perspective on the FX board, a deal will support EUR as well as commodity currencies notably AUD, NZD, CAD and NOK.
A great few trades paying for stops and we are in perfect sync. Well done those following and positioned for the move towards 1.13.
Note
A timely update to start the week:Trade closed: target reached
First targets cleared!!Note
Initial targets cleared at the previous offers ... Note
Here is the map for today, red or blue pill?Note
Losing 1.12 with the open ... test of the lows in playNote
You can see bears loaded... the monthly open was offered with Frankfurt, we are losing yesterday's NY roll ... It should be crystal clear where we are headed next: Note
Eyes on 1.11750 next Note
We are arriving at the first destination for shorts. Note
Bears aggressive after the London close. Note
Something cooking in the background ..Note
We are marching back towards the offer... tracking the open closely here to see if bids break above or capitulateNote
We are back at the offer... those who worked the bid for the roll yesterday know what to do... Note
Those who are bearish continue working the offer at 1.121 ... Note
As anticipated... Note
Same old story ... 1.1175 bid ... Note
No comments Note
Those wanting to get long are tracking for the previous offer to find a bid... Note
If bulls lose 1.121 today it will be sending loud messages that real money wants to load from lower in the bottom of the range ... Note
Tracking 1.121 for the weekly close Note
If bulls fail to take the highs today we are going to enter in severe chop for a rather congested macro calendar this week Note
An important update here for those holding longs. It is time to start trailing stops aggressively, after bulls failed to clear the 1.126 for the morning session we are entering back in wide chop mode meaning there is not much point in holding much longer.Trade closed manually
Some nice singles here but no home-run to 1.13 ... flat for now and actively looking for shorts for the European open tomorrow.
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