EUR/USD 8H SwingTrade: Institutions in Control Amid Deep Retrace
Updated
This long position on EUR/USD continues to develop as the trade approaches a critical zone near 1.09600, where partial profits will be taken if the market starts to move in the anticipated direction. The setup shows a potential for a reversal following a controlled decline, which may indicate institutional players hedging their positions. Despite the lack of a significant pullback, the steady decline suggests deeper market manipulation by larger participants, as they may be positioning themselves for a move upward.
This swing trade is grounded in both technical and fundamental factors. While the euro has faced challenges due to economic slowdown in the Eurozone, the technicals are showing signs of alignment for a potential bullish reversal. If the market sentiment shifts, the euro could gain momentum, supported by upcoming key economic data and central bank statements.
Technicals:
• The price action shows a controlled decline with minimal volatility, indicating institutional hedging and the possibility of a corrective move.
• Price is trading within the momentum cloud, signaling a neutral-to-bullish shift in sentiment. The next key level to watch is the 1.09600 area, where partial profit-taking is planned.
• A full break above 1.10280 (next significant resistance) could fuel further bullish momentum, targeting higher levels at 1.1070 and beyond.
• Stop loss is placed below 1.0740 to account for market volatility while keeping the risk-to-reward ratio balanced.
Fundamentals:
• Eurozone Outlook: With inflation persisting in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) continues its cautious approach, maintaining tight monetary policy. However, the euro remains under pressure due to underwhelming growth figures, geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and high inflation.
• USD Strength: The USD remains strong amid solid US economic data, including robust housing starts and job growth. This strength has limited the euro’s ability to recover, but any weakening in the US data could help fuel a euro recovery.
• Macro Events: Key macro events, including ECB President Lagarde’s upcoming speeches and US economic data releases, are likely to have an impact on this pair. Lagarde’s recent dovish tone, combined with any signs of weakening in the US economy, could catalyze a EUR/USD reversal.
Risk Management:
• Taking partial profits near the 1.09600 level minimizes downside risk while locking in gains if the trade moves favorably.
• The stop loss remains tight to protect against any sudden reversals, placed below the recent low at 1.0740 to maintain an optimal risk-reward ratio.
• By maintaining flexibility in managing the position, this setup aims to capture gains while protecting capital in volatile market conditions.
This trade setup offers a promising opportunity as we monitor both the technical and fundamental aspects closely. Let’s stay focused and continue to manage the position based on market developments!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
This swing trade is grounded in both technical and fundamental factors. While the euro has faced challenges due to economic slowdown in the Eurozone, the technicals are showing signs of alignment for a potential bullish reversal. If the market sentiment shifts, the euro could gain momentum, supported by upcoming key economic data and central bank statements.
Technicals:
• The price action shows a controlled decline with minimal volatility, indicating institutional hedging and the possibility of a corrective move.
• Price is trading within the momentum cloud, signaling a neutral-to-bullish shift in sentiment. The next key level to watch is the 1.09600 area, where partial profit-taking is planned.
• A full break above 1.10280 (next significant resistance) could fuel further bullish momentum, targeting higher levels at 1.1070 and beyond.
• Stop loss is placed below 1.0740 to account for market volatility while keeping the risk-to-reward ratio balanced.
Fundamentals:
• Eurozone Outlook: With inflation persisting in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) continues its cautious approach, maintaining tight monetary policy. However, the euro remains under pressure due to underwhelming growth figures, geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and high inflation.
• USD Strength: The USD remains strong amid solid US economic data, including robust housing starts and job growth. This strength has limited the euro’s ability to recover, but any weakening in the US data could help fuel a euro recovery.
• Macro Events: Key macro events, including ECB President Lagarde’s upcoming speeches and US economic data releases, are likely to have an impact on this pair. Lagarde’s recent dovish tone, combined with any signs of weakening in the US economy, could catalyze a EUR/USD reversal.
Risk Management:
• Taking partial profits near the 1.09600 level minimizes downside risk while locking in gains if the trade moves favorably.
• The stop loss remains tight to protect against any sudden reversals, placed below the recent low at 1.0740 to maintain an optimal risk-reward ratio.
• By maintaining flexibility in managing the position, this setup aims to capture gains while protecting capital in volatile market conditions.
This trade setup offers a promising opportunity as we monitor both the technical and fundamental aspects closely. Let’s stay focused and continue to manage the position based on market developments!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Trade active
The trade has returned close to the entry point, and I am considering closing it while still in profit if the dollar continues to show bullish momentum. The Euro has been trading in a single direction, and for this swing trade to progress further, we need to see more volume and confirmation. Tomorrow is a crucial day for the Euro, so I will decide today whether to let the trade run or close it ahead of time based on market developments.
Let’s stay alert and observe how the session unfolds.
Trade active
I have closed 70% of my initial position while in profit and used that profit to open a new position at the 1.07700 level. This means I now have two active positions in this trade. My strategy here is to capitalize on a potential fast upside move. Often, if you’re not already in the trade during such fast price action, you could miss the opportunity. While this approach works well in swing trading, the style differs when it comes to scalping or intraday trading, but that’s a style the platform doesn’t encourage promoting.
Additionally, today is a long day for the Euro, with several key events, including the Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI reports from multiple Eurozone countries. These economic indicators could significantly impact the price action, and I will closely monitor them throughout the day.
Trade active
The EUR/USD seems to have found stability at its current price level. With a significant week ahead, including the much-anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, this stability could set the stage for potential moves. Technically, we’ve observed a higher low, although the pair has yet to surpass the 1.08600 mark. As the week progresses, let’s see how the price action unfolds—there may be an opportunity for a strong move as we approach the end of the week!Trade active
The euro has broken out strongly, establishing a bottom around the 1.0760 level. Currently, the positions are up by approximately 1.6%, with two active positions. I’ll monitor the trade closely and decide tomorrow before the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release whether to let it run or close one of the positions for risk management.Trade active
I’ve closed one of my two positions as the dollar remains bullish on the higher timeframes, and the euro faced strong rejection from the 1.0900 level, a key confluence zone. I’ve left the smaller position open, reducing my risk by 90%, so this trade is now risk-free for me. The euro may find support around the 1.0800 level, but with a high-impact week ahead for the dollar, market reactions are uncertain.Trade active
EUR/USD Update: The trade is progressing well, with a significant gap left after Sunday’s open. I’ll be monitoring this level closely as it aligns with a confluence zone above the Fib cloud and the 200 MA. If I see signs of rejection here, I’ll close 70% of the remaining position, leaving a smaller portion running through Election Day if the price action aligns with my criteria. Enjoy the trading week, and remember to pay yourself!Trade closed: stop reached
The trade hit the stop-loss at 1.08800 after the Asia open brought in a significant volume surge, closing the Sunday gap. Despite this, the trade ended up positive overall. Remember, market movements are unpredictable; the only aspect we can truly control is our risk. We’re here to make money, so always pay yourself when in profit!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.