More upside potential for EUR/USD
Following the big weekly gain for the 
EURUSD , it seems like there is still some upside potential for the EUR ahead of the Fed's rates decision next week (at which point all bets are off depending on the outcome, even though no cut seems to be almost certain, but might still be used as a catalyst for bigger moves)
As seen on the chart we're currently in middle of nowhere, leaving a big imbalance on today's daily candle and R1 not having been reached yet on the monthly pivot.
At 1.0344 we still have a FVG left open that we will close at some point, but the most likely current outcome is the 1.059 resistance for the short term. It's a popular support/resistance for the past few years and if we can get there it would lead the way to a deep retracement to the 1.0344 mentioned earlier, which would then be the golden zone fib as well as closing the FVG.
Without getting too much ahead of course, the idea for the upcoming week until the fed decision is to target 1.059.
1.04421 Would be an ideal entry long but with no certainty we'll have that pullback first. That being said, entering long at the current level for daily timeframe trader is highly risky as we're deep into premium prices.
I'll be monitoring the current price and update that idea next week.
As a reminder for the week end: there is no shame sitting on your hands waiting for the right time to enter the market. Hell it's the complete opposite, trading is a waiting game. And with trump signing executive orders left and right, speaking about everything and anything all day and with fed interest rate decision coming next week, it's as good a time as any to be cautious and maybe skip a few days of trading.
You can check my previous idea post on GBP to confirm that, waiting for days to get to the right level led to a massive drop in price as expected, and even if I was wrong, at least my SL would have been close by from my entry and secure a small loss. Luckily it went according to plan.
Have a great week end, take the time to rest, journal your wins & losses to learn from them!
EURUSD , it seems like there is still some upside potential for the EUR ahead of the Fed's rates decision next week (at which point all bets are off depending on the outcome, even though no cut seems to be almost certain, but might still be used as a catalyst for bigger moves)As seen on the chart we're currently in middle of nowhere, leaving a big imbalance on today's daily candle and R1 not having been reached yet on the monthly pivot.
At 1.0344 we still have a FVG left open that we will close at some point, but the most likely current outcome is the 1.059 resistance for the short term. It's a popular support/resistance for the past few years and if we can get there it would lead the way to a deep retracement to the 1.0344 mentioned earlier, which would then be the golden zone fib as well as closing the FVG.
Without getting too much ahead of course, the idea for the upcoming week until the fed decision is to target 1.059.
1.04421 Would be an ideal entry long but with no certainty we'll have that pullback first. That being said, entering long at the current level for daily timeframe trader is highly risky as we're deep into premium prices.
I'll be monitoring the current price and update that idea next week.
As a reminder for the week end: there is no shame sitting on your hands waiting for the right time to enter the market. Hell it's the complete opposite, trading is a waiting game. And with trump signing executive orders left and right, speaking about everything and anything all day and with fed interest rate decision coming next week, it's as good a time as any to be cautious and maybe skip a few days of trading.
You can check my previous idea post on GBP to confirm that, waiting for days to get to the right level led to a massive drop in price as expected, and even if I was wrong, at least my SL would have been close by from my entry and secure a small loss. Luckily it went according to plan.
Have a great week end, take the time to rest, journal your wins & losses to learn from them!
Trade active
Quick update as the first trade of the week went according to plan.
We opened gapping down for the week, retraced through the daily imbalance and on the 5min the entry was right on the daily pivot (my entry was slightly above in case it would react strongly on the support first), targeting the resistance above.
Still looking for more buys according to the original post on friday for the time being.
Note
According to my post in the minds for EURUSD, we have another re entry long today so I opened a new long.
Targeting today's high, even though I expect more upside once we break the highs, but I'll be done for the day if this trade goes well.
The idea was simple, 50% retracement coinciding with previous resistance becoming support, SL at a safe distance, great Risk/Reward.
Note
First a little update on the last trade. As I called it in the minds section, after my last update I put my stop at break even because while the entry was perfect and it was moving up nicely, it started rejecting the moment the 1h imbalance got filled. At this point if we were to go back to my entry level I didn't want to be in the trade anymore and that's what happened. Overall a very good day with almost 3R win.
So last night after trump speech we got a big 1h red candle that took us lower than my initial assumption.
It's to be expected with every trump speech for the next 4 years sadly.
That being said it's gonna be a volatile week despite all of that with ECB and FED interest rate decisions and even more importantly, saturday 1st feb, trump's tariff on china mexico and canada are supposed to take effect.
So far markets have called trump's bluff on tariff but it might all change this week end.
For that matter I think no one should have an open position coming friday night as monday will most likely gap up or down depending on what happened over the week end (and in general I'd say for the next 4 years, just don't let trade runs over week ends)
So where does that leave us for today?
We did hit weekly pivot on the speech and so far it's been holding there, being a confluence of PP as well as a known resistance highlighted on the cart, unless we get an indication of what's next it's just safer to wait until we get that information.
I'm still biased long as it looks like accumulation in that support level but I'll be looking for a long position if we break that range and come to retest it. There is no need to jump in front of the train, patience pays.
We do have a bit of news later today during NY session, though unlikely to make the market move significantly while all eyes are set on tomorrow's news.
I plan to not have any trade open on wednesday and thursday. And while I might trade friday, like I mentioned earlier, not holding anything after the close on friday.
It's a tough week for trading, like I said before no need to rush it nor trade for the sake of it. Only take clear signals!
Good luck out there!
Order cancelled
Ok final note on that idea:
Today I tried to push a trade because I knew it was probably gonna be the last trade of the week for me.
Of course it's a terrible idea to push trades without an excellent setup. The entry was good as the NY open gave us a nice push just above the support level we were crawling in since the Trump speech.
Entered on retracement into a small imbalance on the 5 min, aiming for a 3R with a low hanging fruit of the pullback right after the big trump candle.
It was decent until it lost all steam while at 1RR in profit, decided to move SL at breakeven. On hindsight closing the trade at this point would have been a better choice since I knew the trade wasn't a great setup to begin with and I could have taken a bit of profit at least.
We retraced back to breakeven shortly after that and it went straight for what was my SL anyway so overall it was alright.
Just a good reminder to not look for trade when there isn't a good reason for it.
I'm done for the week trading, I'm not gonna risk my capital entering during ECB and FED interest rate decision and certainly not holding over the week end with the tariff looming on saturday.
I'll take the time off to review my trades and plan my trades for next week.
I'm gonna post all the ideas here for my own sake and to share with whoever!
Note
forgot to add the chart with the trade in question:
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