EURUSD Over Extended

Looking at a channel on the overall price action, with price near the top extreme levels of the channel. Still looking for some retracement, and with two major areas just zoomed through, it shows a serious out of balance situation in the market.

Order set at the short tool,

Entry 1.11069, stop above at 1.108, Traget the top clear level where the break out came from at 1.093

Trade active

Entry filled 1.1069

Note

What I am seeing is a complex price action pattern. This one takes a little time to play out, and my not start back down until next week or end of the last few hours of the week. What will probably happen is price will consolidate for a bit between the upper high and the last low, where it has sort of a bowl shape for the candles. It will drift about back and forth, and then finally break down. It will then slow rise back up, but ultimately make a lower high and finally fall from there, making it's way down to the break out point where all this news sent it on a frenzy up to this area. Price will want to take care of itself, and right now it is very overbalanced. We have profit taking, plus late trend buying like crazy because of higher target speak, and most stops are a bit below at the lower low, all helping this pattern work itself out slowly.

Highly resembles a 1-2-3 price action pattern. Not common, and hard to spot, but I see the intial long consolidation in rectangular form, and a long time in this area would confirm the pattern shoudl finish and follow through., otherwise, this high will be a retest point to run for 1.11+

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Strong bullish reaction on UJ from a double bottom, and showing reversal there, and typically the euro will react the opposite soon after so expecting price to start coming back soon

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About to get some shut eye, if price breaks above and comes back, idea still good, as long as it stays around / below 1.108 for the end of week. Otherwise, short will be from 1.115 and have a much larger target, it will fall eventually, markets don't go in straight lines and never pullback.....

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Session open gives good signs for favor of the idea, and possible progress to target beginning soon. I'll check back in as I wake

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Pattern is making progress, the stop run was point 1, in the higher low now ( point 2) lower high next is point 3, making the 1-2-3 pattern full. We could also just dead cat bounce to the target if it hits more buy stop losses, and being end of the week when weekly traders close out, may see the last possibility take effect

Note

At the current trend rate since the breakdown, target should be hit by end of the day.

Should price get near but not hit before the week close, the position will be closed, because it won't make much since to hold for a little more over the week end.

Normal behavior for the EUR, it runs wild, and when it's had it's fun, it comes straight back....

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Adjusting stop to 1.10150, right above the last lower high resistance level, (1:5 lock in)

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Depending how this week closes will determine a lot going forward. If the price does not make it to the target and stalls about here, the lower high (point 3 of the 1-2-3) should be made Monday, then the market could roll over and head lower, 1.073 lower.... If the price hits the target before close, Monday should see a rebound and resume trend for 1.115 next week

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Using general time pattern behavior, I would think we should see the weekly traders closing out their positions here soon, bringing price into the target level near the end of the day, trend still falling at the same rate since the breakdown

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Stop to 1.10025, 1:6, looks like the market is trying to recover slightly

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1.0991, this resistance breaks, it will be making point 3... re enter short around 1.1045 if that is the case

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Looks to be rolling back down. 5 minute "w retest is not holding water....

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Losing volume and spread getting wider (using a spread account) can't raise stop any because of order tolerance and price is too close, may get hit for 1:7 but expecting the market to fizzle out the week around here +-10 pips

Trade closed: stop reached

Yup, making the last comment spread hit my stop

Initial risk 11 pips, stop out at 77.4 pips gain, 1:7. Euro doesn't like to give up more than 100 pips a day usually, except a few rare occasions. Likely to raise back to 1.1045 then turn again, have to watch into the week open.

ForexStoryteller

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