EUR/USD: 2024 Highs at Risk with Dollar Rebound?
The EUR/USD exchange rate recorded a solid weekly performance, marking its fourth consecutive increase and reaching a new 2024 high in the 1.1180-1.1185 range. This upward movement was supported by the pronounced bearish bias affecting the US Dollar (USD), which helped push EUR/USD to new highs.
Technical Resistance and Support Levels
Resistance: The first significant resistance level for EUR/USD is located at 1.1175.
Support: On the downside, the first support level is at 1.1025.
Technical Analysis
Long-term Trend: The EUR/USD uptrend remains intact as long as the price stays above the 200-day moving average (SMA). This line represents a critical dynamic support for the pair, suggesting that the underlying trend remains bullish.
Fundamentals and Macroeconomic Influences
EUR/USD experienced a pause in its multi-year recovery, coming under bearish pressure after reaching annual peaks above 1.1170. This movement coincided with a return of bullish bias in the US Dollar, reflecting the rebound of the Dollar Index (DXY) from 2024 lows below the 101.00 area. This dollar rebound was fueled by a decrease in momentum in the risk complex following the release of the FOMC minutes, which left open the possibility of a rate cut by the Fed in September.
In parallel, US Treasury yields showed further strengthening, providing additional support for the dollar. The mixed data from the advanced PMIs in the euro area contributed to slowing down EUR/USD's march northward, while the ECB minutes highlighted concerns about the impact of high interest rates on economic growth, without suggesting an imminent rate cut.
Technical Resistance and Support Levels
Resistance: The first significant resistance level for EUR/USD is located at 1.1175.
Support: On the downside, the first support level is at 1.1025.
Technical Analysis
Long-term Trend: The EUR/USD uptrend remains intact as long as the price stays above the 200-day moving average (SMA). This line represents a critical dynamic support for the pair, suggesting that the underlying trend remains bullish.
Fundamentals and Macroeconomic Influences
EUR/USD experienced a pause in its multi-year recovery, coming under bearish pressure after reaching annual peaks above 1.1170. This movement coincided with a return of bullish bias in the US Dollar, reflecting the rebound of the Dollar Index (DXY) from 2024 lows below the 101.00 area. This dollar rebound was fueled by a decrease in momentum in the risk complex following the release of the FOMC minutes, which left open the possibility of a rate cut by the Fed in September.
In parallel, US Treasury yields showed further strengthening, providing additional support for the dollar. The mixed data from the advanced PMIs in the euro area contributed to slowing down EUR/USD's march northward, while the ECB minutes highlighted concerns about the impact of high interest rates on economic growth, without suggesting an imminent rate cut.
Note
EURUSD: I'm waiting to see a bounce within the FVG at the 1.1060 level. Today, we have significant USD news: Prelim GDP q/q and Unemployment Claims.
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