Euro / U.S. DollarShort
EUR/USD what to expect after testing 1.2250? more appreciation?
- As was mentioned in the previous two ideas this week, the approach of breaking above to 1.2250 targeting (1.2280-12300) was highly expected, not as a EUR real value, but as a fake out and a take profit move.
- In this idea I will mention what is likely to expect according to the recent price action, but let me first mention some new fundamentals to take into account.
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
1- EU are plans to dole out to members 2 trillion euros in financing from its regular budget and pandemic stimulus funds (According to fiscal policy it is negative for the EUR).
2- Germany will allow its controversial law to lapse, a sign that the pandemic is releasing its grip.
3- Czech Republic recommended charging prime minister Andrej Babis after completing an investigation into whether he misused EU funds.
4- EU plans to life all quarantine requirements from July 1 for those who are fully vaccinated.
5- EU factories struggling to keep up with the economic recovery as order rise faster than production, setting the bloc up for a summer spike in inflation.
6- Calendar data was seen mixed but the main focus was on the EU CPI ( Surge of 2% ), signs for a high inflation.
What to expect after the rise to 1.2250 today? Is the target of 1.2300 still in the picture?
- As we see fundamentals don't totally point to EUR depreciation but considering the balance rule, still the economic outlook seems brighter in U.S.
Why the price is appreciating?
- Only due to U.S inflation problem, and it is also a game of taking profit from the investors side.
- In other words ( Expected fake out that is likely to end with a big fall to 1.2100 and maybe less ).
What to expect in the near term?
- The price MAY fall from 1.2250 and create a downtrend but I wouldn't say it is the best entry because according to fundamentals still the 1.2300 is still in the picture but breaking above 1.2300 is totally not considered.
- It is wise to hold short position from 1.2250 (lowest risk) giving a room to hold other positions near 1.2300.
-- THIS PICTURE REMAINS ONLY TILL ANY UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY --
- In this idea I will mention what is likely to expect according to the recent price action, but let me first mention some new fundamentals to take into account.
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
1- EU are plans to dole out to members 2 trillion euros in financing from its regular budget and pandemic stimulus funds (According to fiscal policy it is negative for the EUR).
2- Germany will allow its controversial law to lapse, a sign that the pandemic is releasing its grip.
3- Czech Republic recommended charging prime minister Andrej Babis after completing an investigation into whether he misused EU funds.
4- EU plans to life all quarantine requirements from July 1 for those who are fully vaccinated.
5- EU factories struggling to keep up with the economic recovery as order rise faster than production, setting the bloc up for a summer spike in inflation.
6- Calendar data was seen mixed but the main focus was on the EU CPI ( Surge of 2% ), signs for a high inflation.
What to expect after the rise to 1.2250 today? Is the target of 1.2300 still in the picture?
- As we see fundamentals don't totally point to EUR depreciation but considering the balance rule, still the economic outlook seems brighter in U.S.
Why the price is appreciating?
- Only due to U.S inflation problem, and it is also a game of taking profit from the investors side.
- In other words ( Expected fake out that is likely to end with a big fall to 1.2100 and maybe less ).
What to expect in the near term?
- The price MAY fall from 1.2250 and create a downtrend but I wouldn't say it is the best entry because according to fundamentals still the 1.2300 is still in the picture but breaking above 1.2300 is totally not considered.
- It is wise to hold short position from 1.2250 (lowest risk) giving a room to hold other positions near 1.2300.
-- THIS PICTURE REMAINS ONLY TILL ANY UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY --
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.