Structural Breakdown
Updated
This buying attempt looks to be failing, as the buyers are losing power in getting the turn. We're in a daily zone, but it's roughly 75 pips wide, and we're near the extreme upper levels.
This breakdown makes me think the next possible level is around 1.053. with a lot of buyers in the market, there should be a heavy concentration of stops just below the last low around 1.0655. this should accelerate price below the next few levels.
Placing a short, market entry made at 1.0701, stop 1.0725 (arbitrary 25 pip lock) target at 1.065 and observe as this will be the bottom of the long term channel we can't seem to breach out of.
This breakdown makes me think the next possible level is around 1.053. with a lot of buyers in the market, there should be a heavy concentration of stops just below the last low around 1.0655. this should accelerate price below the next few levels.
Placing a short, market entry made at 1.0701, stop 1.0725 (arbitrary 25 pip lock) target at 1.065 and observe as this will be the bottom of the long term channel we can't seem to breach out of.
Trade active
Entry made at 1.0701 with a market entry, trading the width of the channel in placeNote
Target reach will reset the idea, expecting this to happen at least one more time before finally dropping outNote
Closing the impulse trade for 31 pips, reset for the set-up, and relax because risk is covered.*Little preoccupied, sorry, I'll try to be a bit faster calling in the future 🐵
Note
Extended target for round 2, looking for 1.064 the second time, Entry likely after open, as the last hour of the day price tends to settle in a tight range.Note
Adjusted order to 1.0706, stop 1.0731, target 1.062 for round 2Note
Price action resembles a common consolidation breakdown that just goes up and down, but slightly lower each time before falling out ultimately. Price could revisit the 1.07 level a few times before the final fall. All of this is still inside the long term channel, and staying within the bounds, though in the end it should have a hard fall and stallNote
Stage is set, using a double entry, identical stops and second target at the 1.053. if price does an additional retrace back near the 1.07, it should not (and typically does not) come back past an extreme such as the 1.071 level in this set-up.NFP coming, and that could change some things, but overall, the complex pattern holds for now...
Trade active
Orders filledTrade closed: stop reached
Stopped out, net 20 pip loss counting scalp on ideas creation. That's wrap for the week. Not even going to try and guess the NFP, and news is usually more destructive to the account than it's worth. Have a good weekend 👍
Note
Not trading, just adding thoughtsThinking the original analysis of long is more in effect but watch a liquidity run to the bottom first, with bias shifting back to 1.09 levels if it reacts up.
The thinking behind this is we still tend to be hanging around this clear daily level, but at the upper extremes mostly. Expecting price to punch down below the level, then rocket up.
Not trading as news tends to rip me up more than I come out on top, but that's what I would expect from what I see going through the week coming up to this point
Note
Also considering the USD took a dirt nap today, so unless the EUR suffers in a similar way, advantage EUR here I would think
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