EUR/USD will price finally break below 1.1700 post FOMC?
Updated
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY
- The main fundamental news that drives the currency pair direction for more than a month now is the rising inflation in EU and U.S. post lifting lockdowns related to the Covid-19 -
- Since last FOMC Press conference on June 16 2021, the Fed shifted their tone to go hawkish earlier than anticipated and announced Fed has started to consider tapering asset purchases and left the employment goal and inflation status as the main conditions -
- Since that meeting, fundamental traders started to give all attention to Jobs reports, CPIs, and FOMC, also since then the currency pair was keeping its Bearish stance -
- The current economic outlook is higher inflation in U.S., Fed shifting to adjust monetary policy, jobs reports to reflect achieved goals to Fed -
- On the other side in EU, rising inflation and a dovish ECB (EUR NEGATIVE) -
Will price finally break below 1.1700?
- If EU CPI data rises, then there would be low probability but existing to break below 1.1700 but not sure it will hold ahead of the main event FOMC -
- If Fed announces the official date of taper price would decline up to 1.1650 - (HAS THE HIGHER PROBABILITY)
- If Fed delays taper or tries to convince inflation is proving to be transitory, that probably won't work more with investors and price would return to break above 1.1750 and reach 1.1850 -
- Ahead of FOMC if bearish movement does not continue, so any upside movement would be capped at 1.1760 and is low expected -
DISCLAIMER
- BY MISTAKE I WROTE IN MY LAST IDEA, IT DEPENDS ON POWELL SPEAKS, THOUGH THE POWELL SPEAKS WAS TO BE A TOWN HALL, NOT POLICY STATEMENT SO SAME ANALYSIS BUT JUST TO SHIT POWELL SPEAKS SOURCE TO FOMC INFORMATION SOURCE -
- EURUSD INVESTORS TO BE WAITING FOR TAPERING UPDATES TO FIRM THEIR BEARISH STANCE OR STRONGLY REVERSE THE PRICE -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
- The main fundamental news that drives the currency pair direction for more than a month now is the rising inflation in EU and U.S. post lifting lockdowns related to the Covid-19 -
- Since last FOMC Press conference on June 16 2021, the Fed shifted their tone to go hawkish earlier than anticipated and announced Fed has started to consider tapering asset purchases and left the employment goal and inflation status as the main conditions -
- Since that meeting, fundamental traders started to give all attention to Jobs reports, CPIs, and FOMC, also since then the currency pair was keeping its Bearish stance -
- The current economic outlook is higher inflation in U.S., Fed shifting to adjust monetary policy, jobs reports to reflect achieved goals to Fed -
- On the other side in EU, rising inflation and a dovish ECB (EUR NEGATIVE) -
Will price finally break below 1.1700?
- If EU CPI data rises, then there would be low probability but existing to break below 1.1700 but not sure it will hold ahead of the main event FOMC -
- If Fed announces the official date of taper price would decline up to 1.1650 - (HAS THE HIGHER PROBABILITY)
- If Fed delays taper or tries to convince inflation is proving to be transitory, that probably won't work more with investors and price would return to break above 1.1750 and reach 1.1850 -
- Ahead of FOMC if bearish movement does not continue, so any upside movement would be capped at 1.1760 and is low expected -
DISCLAIMER
- BY MISTAKE I WROTE IN MY LAST IDEA, IT DEPENDS ON POWELL SPEAKS, THOUGH THE POWELL SPEAKS WAS TO BE A TOWN HALL, NOT POLICY STATEMENT SO SAME ANALYSIS BUT JUST TO SHIT POWELL SPEAKS SOURCE TO FOMC INFORMATION SOURCE -
- EURUSD INVESTORS TO BE WAITING FOR TAPERING UPDATES TO FIRM THEIR BEARISH STANCE OR STRONGLY REVERSE THE PRICE -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
Note
excuse me for any text error not related to the content of the analysis, and for the word disclaimer, it was posted instead of EDITSNote
Fed minutes show most officials see start of taper in 2021, scenario of fed announcing taper is active, BEARISH, short term price range 1.1750-1.1650.Any move below 1.1650 would be considered as a fake out, to be followed by a retreat above 1.1650.
Calendar in such situations if not USD side just to cause soft pullback, chances to sell more. I will publish idea to explain it, and explain long term price range, if not today-tomorrow, then on Sunday. I thank traders for support and giving attention.
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