Based on my price action, currently, it's a nice retest of the broken TL, a pretty excellent risk-reward ratio. I predicted it would reach the final target by the end of July or the beginning of August. I would wait for the confirmation candle, enter the trade, set SL / TP, and forget about it since the analysis is base on the daily time frame.
We had a similar entry price zone on February 25, 2021 (link attached). The market rejected 1.224 zones at that time and fell deep to 1.170.
Invalidation:
This analysis fails if the price breakout and closes above 1.236.
Catalyst:
- ECB Financial Stability Review
- EU CPI
- FOMC
- US Unemployment claims
- EU PMI
- ECB Press Conference
- NFP