$EURUSD Swing Sell Underway - Another one
Updated
So this Blue Horizontal line that I've had on my charts for quite some time represents a significant resistance/support line for the past 8 years or so. I call the daily bias for the EURUSD to be a sell, and it was overnight and when I woke up I immediately exited the trade with a mere but decent 20 pips, closing the trade at 1.18337 about 8 hours ago. The move shifted sideways and then within the last part of the day I noticed the strong surge upwards, until it hit my resistance line that has been marked for weeks at 1.18790. I kinda looked at it for a second. Then I looked at the big picture and thought this could be another swing trade. So I went for it. Within the previous day it has attacked a daily high and a daily low but has not broken either of them. So tomorrow it's going to be a given that it will break one or the other. So I have set up second entry zone and that is just above the next two daily highs and allows for a stop loss above the 3rd daily high. I will probably try a combination of entry points and stop/losses to mitigate risk as I always do. Never put your eggs in one basket!!
Where I drew my historical support/resistance line just happened to the bottom of an Order Block.
(See Chart)
As for Take Profit Goals, I chose 1.17400 because it's just below the current swing low and it's an institutional/psy number. No one at a bank is going to be aimin for 1.174214. And it also comes in contact with an order block that could turn the trade north depending on what time of day it is when it gets there.
My second take profit area is 1.17000 which is just above a 4 hour low/swing low of 1.16978 and just below a daily low.
Once/if I hit these zones I'll leave about a 5% profit trailer to roam to see if it gets lower while my s/l is below entry.
Again, the Commercial banks are very net short with EU even though they have been adding longs. I did check the Open interest last night and it seems to be steadily rising, which wouldn't necessarily call for a sell. Unless a drop in interest has just happened or is about to happen. Here's a chart with the COT report, stochastic with interest, and Money flow with interest rates. The Money Flow Index with the Open Interest seems to be Diverging which would signal a sell in the near future.
I'm not expecting it to turn around and sell off now. But I do Expect a struggle, probably breaking the highs (barely) before dropping a few hundred pips by the end of next week.
Also Linked is every EURUSD call I've made so you can see the timeline of how bad I used to make calls, and my progression to making better calls and realizing where I went wrong with incorrect ones. At least now they're all in one spot. During this period I'll be trying to add more positions as well as give a breakdown of price action on this thread as the trade moves along.
Just my two cents. And just a reminder, I could be completely WRONG. I'm just some guy with a 9-5 job that likes to post his ideas on here :)
EURUSD
Where I drew my historical support/resistance line just happened to the bottom of an Order Block.
(See Chart)
As for Take Profit Goals, I chose 1.17400 because it's just below the current swing low and it's an institutional/psy number. No one at a bank is going to be aimin for 1.174214. And it also comes in contact with an order block that could turn the trade north depending on what time of day it is when it gets there.
My second take profit area is 1.17000 which is just above a 4 hour low/swing low of 1.16978 and just below a daily low.
Once/if I hit these zones I'll leave about a 5% profit trailer to roam to see if it gets lower while my s/l is below entry.
Again, the Commercial banks are very net short with EU even though they have been adding longs. I did check the Open interest last night and it seems to be steadily rising, which wouldn't necessarily call for a sell. Unless a drop in interest has just happened or is about to happen. Here's a chart with the COT report, stochastic with interest, and Money flow with interest rates. The Money Flow Index with the Open Interest seems to be Diverging which would signal a sell in the near future.
I'm not expecting it to turn around and sell off now. But I do Expect a struggle, probably breaking the highs (barely) before dropping a few hundred pips by the end of next week.
Also Linked is every EURUSD call I've made so you can see the timeline of how bad I used to make calls, and my progression to making better calls and realizing where I went wrong with incorrect ones. At least now they're all in one spot. During this period I'll be trying to add more positions as well as give a breakdown of price action on this thread as the trade moves along.
Just my two cents. And just a reminder, I could be completely WRONG. I'm just some guy with a 9-5 job that likes to post his ideas on here :)
EURUSDTrade active
8 Pips in the red from my first initial setup. But I have 3 entries and 3 take profits. and I'll be mix and matching them. Entries 1.18769 (entered) 1.18900 (entered, it entered it at 1.18903) and my third is 1.18950. All with stop losses of 1.19300. Take Profits are 1.17950, 1.17400, 1.17000Trade active
Second Entry of 1.18900 just triggered my MT4 at 1.18903. amnd immediate rejectedTrade active
Changing 1.18950 Entry to 1.19100 I already have two well established positions with more risk that I want. If I'm going to take on a third, I'm going to make that a little less riskierNote
I added an extra position just now. I took it down to the 5 min chart and found the most explosive move down and used a fib from top to bottom and placed a sell limit near the 70.5% of the retracement. Oddly it came really close to my initial entrance at 1.18760. It almost touched my historical resistance line as well.Note
After last night, about 1:00 a.m. NY time or 7:00 a.m. Frankfurt time, the dollar created a double bottom. This is setting up for the dollar to go lower. So I believe eventually we'll see the EURUSD return back up to those highs and take them out. It may only be momentarily, or it maybe in a long bull run on the EURUSD, but I noticed that it did set that up. Why would it drop below that and that not be considered support? Because there's a liquidity pool there, smart money attacks liquidity Note
I personally believe it's consolidating in this area giving the appearance it will buy with a safe Stop loss. Dont be fooled.Trade active
just nowComment: And as an FYI, I took 50% of my initial position at 20 pips. It's just something I always do. I'll break the rest off at 15%, 15%, 15%, and 5%
Trade active
I wish I would've been awake to take off these 25 pips, but at 4:30, I was sound asleep. I'll be looking for it to reach this same area.Trade active
I took 50% of the lower entry at 20 pipsNote
You couldn't have asked for a better place to add another position. As it retraced back up since the weeks open, it hit the 70.5% retracement mark on the dot and has since started selling. That retracement level was my original entry to this trade. The 70.5% retracement is always my go-to when looking for a great reversal signal, that and 80%. but I added another position at 1.18770.Trade active
TP1 Reached from the second entry as it reached just over 30 pips. 20% of pips taken from this one position.Note
Get ready for TP 1 on the early position at 1.18500 25-30 ish pips in depending on where you entered.Note
I Held out a little bit longer and got the second TP 1 at 1.18430Note
Between 2 positions or (3-4 in my case) You should have about 65 pips total banked. next stop 1.18150.Note
So I took 50% of profit off both positions at 1.18050. I thought it could get there and I was going to be much surprised if it got lower. But I set my TP on my MT4 and it reached so I got an extra 10 pips on each position(s) and off my main two 50% of my profits were taken at about 97 and 71 pips. I have 30% of my lots on each position. Plus I had a few momentum scalps I threw in along the way down. Now. What I would expect to see is the price action to bounce between 1.18300 and 1.18500 which is right around where two previous daily lows were. (Below on chart marked "Near Resting Place" with a box for the expected range) That's where price likes to attract to/retract to after a volatile day of trading going into the Asian Session. I would either see an odd slide off sell going into the London session or for it to push up once again until it nears or hits the breaker at 1.18630, at this point I will be looking to add another short position with the stop loss around the high of 1.19000. (On the chart where it says Breaker - Sell Here). I would like to see it aim for the next two days of previous lows but we do have some Bullish Order Blocks on the way down. So it's going to depend on the speed and velocity on which it it makes its way down, much like to day, as to if we'll see that happen tomorrow or another day. Also, I think we're in the clear to remove the current stop losses and place them at Break Even. See Chart of what I am possibly expecting.
Note
1.1848 is about to break to the upside. Note
As stated earlier, the price has held between the two previous daily lows. Creating a false sense of resistance that will eventually break and cause another false breakout and sell one again. I'm still holding my entry at 1.18600Note
New resistance formed and a go ahead sell at 1.18644
You're either trading with Smart Money Theory or your just burning your money money. Believe me, I've been there.
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