Week8: EURUSD will rise
Wow it's the 2nd month I'm doing this weekly check-up and first of all I would like to thank everybody for your interest and helpful feedback. Thank you !!!
Now let's do business!
That was a very bullish week (as expected in my last idea Week7) and we hit exactly the target of wave (iii).
BUT, and thats a really interesting point, there is some potential that wave (iii) isn't over yet.
Let's take a look at the internal wave structure of wave (iii). On the left side you see the termination point of wave (b). Then we have waves (1) and (2) (in green) and an extended wave 3 in wave (3). Wave 3 found an end with an ending diagonal. On the left side you can see a picture book example of an ending diagonal. After an ending diagonal finishes we almost always see sharp decline which mostly corrects the whole size of the pattern (we already saw a sharp decline on friday).
Why do I think that wave (iii) in the daily chart isn't over? Because we haven't seen any bigger correction in the subwaves which would form a wave 4 (hourly chart).
I think we will see a corrective wave 4 (in green) and get a last impulse move up to complete wave (iii). On friday we started the correction and saw a first strong move down. If this wave A will contain three waves we can expect a flat correction where wave B will get near the start of wave A. The structure is 3-3-5 as you can see at the illustration below.
The target for wave 4 (in green) is near the wave ((iv)) as usual in elliott. We also have there the bottom of the trend channel.
After wave 4 is complete we should see a 5 waves move up (maybe another ending diagonal) to complete wave (3) (in green). After that we are ready for wave (iv) (daily chart).
Alternative scenario:
If we assume that wave (iii) (wave (3) in the hourly chart) is over we can expect a scenario as the following. We are in wave (iv) which could form a flat correction if wave A will exist out of 3 waves.
Back to the daily:
If wave (iv) ends where expected we can use fibo extension to get a target for wave (v). The target should be between 1.145 and 1.155 (fibo 0.5 and fibo 0.618) which is also the resistance area of previous wave iv (triangle).
This would complete the corrective wave (c) of 4 and we should see a last decline (as 5 wave structure) to complete the move. See following chart for a better understanding:
Weekly
As always I'm going to post comments and updated charts, so stay tuned.
I wish you a good week and even better trades!
Cheers,
Dominik
Now let's do business!
That was a very bullish week (as expected in my last idea Week7) and we hit exactly the target of wave (iii).
BUT, and thats a really interesting point, there is some potential that wave (iii) isn't over yet.
Let's take a look at the internal wave structure of wave (iii). On the left side you see the termination point of wave (b). Then we have waves (1) and (2) (in green) and an extended wave 3 in wave (3). Wave 3 found an end with an ending diagonal. On the left side you can see a picture book example of an ending diagonal. After an ending diagonal finishes we almost always see sharp decline which mostly corrects the whole size of the pattern (we already saw a sharp decline on friday).
Why do I think that wave (iii) in the daily chart isn't over? Because we haven't seen any bigger correction in the subwaves which would form a wave 4 (hourly chart).
I think we will see a corrective wave 4 (in green) and get a last impulse move up to complete wave (iii). On friday we started the correction and saw a first strong move down. If this wave A will contain three waves we can expect a flat correction where wave B will get near the start of wave A. The structure is 3-3-5 as you can see at the illustration below.
The target for wave 4 (in green) is near the wave ((iv)) as usual in elliott. We also have there the bottom of the trend channel.
After wave 4 is complete we should see a 5 waves move up (maybe another ending diagonal) to complete wave (3) (in green). After that we are ready for wave (iv) (daily chart).
Alternative scenario:
If we assume that wave (iii) (wave (3) in the hourly chart) is over we can expect a scenario as the following. We are in wave (iv) which could form a flat correction if wave A will exist out of 3 waves.
Back to the daily:
If wave (iv) ends where expected we can use fibo extension to get a target for wave (v). The target should be between 1.145 and 1.155 (fibo 0.5 and fibo 0.618) which is also the resistance area of previous wave iv (triangle).
This would complete the corrective wave (c) of 4 and we should see a last decline (as 5 wave structure) to complete the move. See following chart for a better understanding:
Weekly
As always I'm going to post comments and updated charts, so stay tuned.
I wish you a good week and even better trades!
Cheers,
Dominik
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