Mixed situation after ECB's verbal intervention
as you can see in my comments, I think we are now in a situation where we could potentially experience 3 outcomes to this macroeconomic puzzle.
Well now we have 3 possibilities
1) we start another rally up confirming the triangle and breaking to the up.. in that caseI can see ECB desperate in ecember increasing QE (25% chances)
2) we start plummeting, different figures will confirm the tech. side and yellen will come outwith FED rate hike and push the Euro to its lows of the year... we need big Rate hike for this... (25% chances)
3) we keep seen choppy mixed news from both sides, EU and USA suffering further from low inflation and unemployment slowing down with China playing a key paper (50% chances)
I am afraid that we will continue to see a mixed load of news from both sides of the atlantic, we will see good news from the USA strenghening the FED rate hike possibilities and also good news from EU that will push the euro up... unfortunatelly this will only maintain the fair price line as a pivot point that the euro will keep revisiting.
on another note, we are shifting north to this line so if this is not pushed further down, then i think this upper channel could end up confirmed and we will see an unstopable Euro.
ANOTHER THING... I nearly forgotten... just be vigilant of the SNB, the CHF is moving out of the "confort zone" and they could intervine like they have done in the past. Just protect yourself from extrain movements.
in summary,
- keep your eyes and ears on the ECB and FED future statements /Hints
- Maintain your risk low while there is no clear trend
- look for confirmation of levels, sacrifice 20 pips to gain confidence!
- use your common sense... dont buy the highs and sell the dips
- trade what you see.
- protect yourself from sudden moves but get used to volatility.
hope this helps all!!!
Well now we have 3 possibilities
1) we start another rally up confirming the triangle and breaking to the up.. in that caseI can see ECB desperate in ecember increasing QE (25% chances)
2) we start plummeting, different figures will confirm the tech. side and yellen will come outwith FED rate hike and push the Euro to its lows of the year... we need big Rate hike for this... (25% chances)
3) we keep seen choppy mixed news from both sides, EU and USA suffering further from low inflation and unemployment slowing down with China playing a key paper (50% chances)
I am afraid that we will continue to see a mixed load of news from both sides of the atlantic, we will see good news from the USA strenghening the FED rate hike possibilities and also good news from EU that will push the euro up... unfortunatelly this will only maintain the fair price line as a pivot point that the euro will keep revisiting.
on another note, we are shifting north to this line so if this is not pushed further down, then i think this upper channel could end up confirmed and we will see an unstopable Euro.
ANOTHER THING... I nearly forgotten... just be vigilant of the SNB, the CHF is moving out of the "confort zone" and they could intervine like they have done in the past. Just protect yourself from extrain movements.
in summary,
- keep your eyes and ears on the ECB and FED future statements /Hints
- Maintain your risk low while there is no clear trend
- look for confirmation of levels, sacrifice 20 pips to gain confidence!
- use your common sense... dont buy the highs and sell the dips
- trade what you see.
- protect yourself from sudden moves but get used to volatility.
hope this helps all!!!
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