EURUSD 31 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday Analysis - ECB CPI - US Core PCE
This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 31 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
The combination of the Fed's steady rate policy and the administration's aggressive trade measures has led to a cautious market outlook. Investors are balancing optimism about domestic economic resilience with concerns over potential disruptions from international trade tensions.
Federal Reserve's Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate.
Fed's Outlook: Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans to adjust rates and highlighting the need to assess the economic impacts of forthcoming policies from the Trump administration.
Presidential Response: President Donald Trump criticized the Fed's decision, attributing ongoing inflation issues to the central bank's policies and pledging to address inflation through measures such as enhancing energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments.
Economic Reports today: ECB CPI Expectations and US Core PCE.
Overall, while the U.S. economy continues to exhibit strength, uncertainties stemming from trade policies and geopolitical factors are contributing to a mixed market sentiment.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback.
🔹Price managed yesterday to create a Bullish CHoCH but again demand failed today which again adds the confluence that the Daily and 4H bearish move is in control and there is a HP that we are going to break the 4H INT Low.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to target the Strong INT Low to facilitate the 4H Bullish Swing Pullback and the Daily Bearish Continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹At Swing Extreme Discount
2️⃣
🔹Price managed yesterday with US News and Lagarde Press Conference to create a Bullish BOS.
🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, where price pulled back to the Bullish Swing Extreme.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish based on the Daily Bearish Continuation, 4H Swing Pullback and the current market sentiment.
- Market Sentiment
- 4H Chart Analysis
- 15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
The combination of the Fed's steady rate policy and the administration's aggressive trade measures has led to a cautious market outlook. Investors are balancing optimism about domestic economic resilience with concerns over potential disruptions from international trade tensions.
Federal Reserve's Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate.
Fed's Outlook: Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans to adjust rates and highlighting the need to assess the economic impacts of forthcoming policies from the Trump administration.
Presidential Response: President Donald Trump criticized the Fed's decision, attributing ongoing inflation issues to the central bank's policies and pledging to address inflation through measures such as enhancing energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments.
Economic Reports today: ECB CPI Expectations and US Core PCE.
Overall, while the U.S. economy continues to exhibit strength, uncertainties stemming from trade policies and geopolitical factors are contributing to a mixed market sentiment.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback.
🔹Price managed yesterday to create a Bullish CHoCH but again demand failed today which again adds the confluence that the Daily and 4H bearish move is in control and there is a HP that we are going to break the 4H INT Low.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to target the Strong INT Low to facilitate the 4H Bullish Swing Pullback and the Daily Bearish Continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹At Swing Extreme Discount
2️⃣
🔹Price managed yesterday with US News and Lagarde Press Conference to create a Bullish BOS.
🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, where price pulled back to the Bullish Swing Extreme.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish based on the Daily Bearish Continuation, 4H Swing Pullback and the current market sentiment.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.