EWZ Bear Call spread at 2nd order selling +1 sig retest
Updated
Symbol EWZ
Open Date 11/6/2023
Bear Call or Bull Put Call
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 34.5
Long Strike 36
Price to Open 0.18
Min Width Multiple 3
Risk Ratio 7.33
Return on Risk 13.6%
Opening DTE 46
1 Day ROI% 0.30%
Max Annual ROI % 108.2%
Longer term, the buyer stepped in on the -1 sig test Oct 6
Rebought the Bearish range -1 sig and the selle did not come back at the aggregate range anchor -2 sig.
Candles past 5 days have gotten short and small.
Price is about to test the 2nd order selling range at +1 sig.
I anticipate that this seller returns with some capital and begins a push down.
So +2 sig above it from the 2nd aggregate seller and the Long term buyer is also above it.
Which is why I sold the 34.5 strike at 4 wide.
It's not that great a yield at 13%, but it's a sound technical idea IMO.
The trade here is to get a return of the 2nd order seller at its +1 sig and allow some time for the 12/22 Calls to die.
I only anticipate a push lower into maybe 31 or 30.75 where the buyer may resume.
So this Bearish position I need to watch closely to see how it reacts to the shortest Bull range -1 sig in the Blue shaded range.
I will buy back this position at breakeven or small profit if the approach and reaction at -1 sig, currently at 30.62 and probably 31 into the future, is a strong Bullish response leaving gaps and imbalances on the 15 min.
(Incorporating ICT orderflow reading)
Open Date 11/6/2023
Bear Call or Bull Put Call
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 34.5
Long Strike 36
Price to Open 0.18
Min Width Multiple 3
Risk Ratio 7.33
Return on Risk 13.6%
Opening DTE 46
1 Day ROI% 0.30%
Max Annual ROI % 108.2%
Longer term, the buyer stepped in on the -1 sig test Oct 6
Rebought the Bearish range -1 sig and the selle did not come back at the aggregate range anchor -2 sig.
Candles past 5 days have gotten short and small.
Price is about to test the 2nd order selling range at +1 sig.
I anticipate that this seller returns with some capital and begins a push down.
So +2 sig above it from the 2nd aggregate seller and the Long term buyer is also above it.
Which is why I sold the 34.5 strike at 4 wide.
It's not that great a yield at 13%, but it's a sound technical idea IMO.
The trade here is to get a return of the 2nd order seller at its +1 sig and allow some time for the 12/22 Calls to die.
I only anticipate a push lower into maybe 31 or 30.75 where the buyer may resume.
So this Bearish position I need to watch closely to see how it reacts to the shortest Bull range -1 sig in the Blue shaded range.
I will buy back this position at breakeven or small profit if the approach and reaction at -1 sig, currently at 30.62 and probably 31 into the future, is a strong Bullish response leaving gaps and imbalances on the 15 min.
(Incorporating ICT orderflow reading)
Note
This one is like SPY. Completely risk-on shit the bed on the Call credit side.It touched my short strike to the F*n TICK on Friday!!!
Goddamn.
But that's also just above 2 sigma on the buy side, which did NOT slow down this rally.
I actually forgot about this one because it's at the bottom of my portfolio list in my broker positions.
So today I'm expecting some decline and I'll have to roll it out, but probably not up because it's too far up and it's too tight to the short strike to roll up for a credit.
At the moment the 5 min chart is looking pretty bearish on the day with a wonderful gap down after the weekend.
But still the hourly is quite bullish with a gap below.
I'm inside 21 days so I need to manage this thing out at least.
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