F's convenient 382

Updated

This is a bearish chart.

Perfect 382 confluence with overhead resistance. Nice 4 target.

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Finishing that diagonal mentioned in comments quickly. Tagged the wave 3 target to the penny, if it is an ending diagonal. One more dip for 5 should complete the diagonal.

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That little drop this morning might have finished off the diagonal.

Looks like we could get that 382 sooner rather than later.

Now looking for a reaction at 12.20 to see if there will be continuation.

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Lots of bull flags today. I expect broader market continuation.

Assuming this 618 pullback holds....
I'm looking for a reaction at 12.20 and then continuation to 12.50.
Pull back to 11.92
And then an upside target of 13.04–13.32, the area of the larger degree 50%.

We could get it this week, but a lot needs to happen for this to play out.
I'm NOT longing it.
Just looking for the next likely spot for a larger pull back.

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It's at 12.20, so layering into short, small for now

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Could be done here.
Could pull back here and go for one more push.
If there's another push, I'll add to short.
And if that turns into 5 waves, I'll cut it.

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Short is doing well.

Wave 3 of this local down move is 12.71. Made 12.75.

I'll take that as a completed 4.

Looks retrace is coming very soon. Looking for 11.80-11.98-12.15.
Pretty heavy now so I'll add a little to this short at 11.80 if we get it.

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Took some profit at 11.25. If we get another low today, I will take more profit and reload on the bounce.
The above targets will probably change if we get another low.

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Nice rejection if this is indeed an expanded flat.
Added to short here.

This doesn't have to be the top. But I like the look of this count for the first time.

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To recap:

As projected, F touched the post-covid 382 to the penny at 12.63, while missing the 2.618 flat target by 1 penny. (Log scale.)
That should have been wave 4.

After that, it appears F has moved down in 5 waves (and made a new local low in the overnight session).

Today, we got another 2.618 flat retrace, which F touched to the penny — this time in linear scale.

Currently, the 618 sits just below.

This morning, I mentioned in comments that I would rethink this trade setup if F pumped all the way past 11.87.
F stopped at 11.87 exactly.

So, for now, I’ll stick with the game plan.

11.87 should hold if this is a flat. If it’s not a flat, I’ll cut the short and watch the overhead 618 and look for this to become a simple zigzag.

I don’t think it is, but it’s possible.

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Three paths I see.
Down from here.
Up in a larger flat to 12.08 and then more down. (Could be a WXY as well.)
Or this is building a 1-2 to the upside, in which case, I won't want to be short. Yet.

A break of 11.59 or 11.35 will tell a lot more.

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Magic numbers for the day.
I don't expect this wedge to survive whichever direction this moves.
I think taps on either side will break it.
Watch for the retest. It might fail the retest and drive through to the other side.

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Ah ha!
1-2 to the downside.
another 2.618 flat just hit the target on the nose.

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six 15-minute candles touched the 2.618 flat target at 11.68 exactly.
It wants to break up.
The level is supposed to hold but pounding like this SHOULD break to the upside.

It will say something about the next days if it can't break this level here.

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Well, it finally broke! 11.70. If it stops here, hellovalotta work for 2 pennies.
Flat still valid. Maybe wants the 618 at 11.71.

Not bullish action here. Still needs a break of 11.87 to see upside that would shift my perspective.

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It broke my level at 11.87 -- went to 11.89 and stopped at exactly the 50%.

For now, I'm still short. This looks like a flat to me.

I'm not sure about the count going down yet. There are two good ways to count 5 down.
There are other possibilities as well.

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3 possible paths here. There are others, of course.
In my view, any of these paths lead to at least new local lows.

BUT that view may change if this move up becomes more impulsive in nature.
It has appeared corrective to me so far, so I will stick with that bias for now.

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I like this as a leading diagonal for now.

I’d like to see a pull back for a long entry. If it does retrace from here, I like the levels on the chart above.
We may not get the pullback though.
Currently on the 618 of this small retrace. So this is where we’d start to pull back if it’s going to happen.

My primary case for F right now is that wave A is in, and we will march up for wave C.

Wave C COULD become a 3, and then more upside will develop.

It is still possible a corrective structure has completed today.
I don’t weigh that as probable, given market conditions… but market conditions say “expect the improbable.”

If F completed a corrective move today, I think it would be a 4.

I can see a possibility for this to be a triangle within the 4, so we’d have an ABC flat for A, then AB for B, with a C down to follow, then we’d get C going back up to complete wave 4.
5 down would follow.

That is possible--but it’s not my primary case. For now, I will stick with the leading diagonal.

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This is possible. It won't be confirmed without the E wave, plus volume-backed breakout. (If this happens, it would not pull back to the 100%, it would break out once E is complete.)

If it does turn out to be a triangle here, that adds credence to the ABC structure, as a wave 2 cannot be a triangle. It would most likely be a B wave, followed by C to the upside.

Other possibilities exist, as always....

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Same general idea. If this plays out, that's a dump into EOD today, then rise into Friday/pre-market Monday, which maintains the angle of the move up to this point.

BUT..., as it was brought up to me in the comments: The C target feels out of reach right now, and we're probably running out of time for this to complete.

If this doesn't move down into the green zone today/overnight, I will look for lower upside targets.

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There's a better count if it's going to be done here.

But I'm still leaning toward the pop up higher before new lows.

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(15 min chart above)
Got the pop higher.
Not sure about the count though. there was a perfect 618 retracement following the 2-3 move as labeled, which indicates that part of the move was one wave.

I'm leaning toward a leading diagonal that was complete here, and then will retrace for a B/2, followed by a rise to C/3.

But this current wave could become a wave 3 to the upside rather than an ABC for wave 5.

There's also the possibility this is a WXY that completed here, which would mean this goes down now.

I'm not feeling that though.

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Local dip down appears to be a completed ABC, missed the 100% extension by .02.

So I guess I'm bullish.

Not a comfortable position today, but I think this fractal keeps on keeping on.

AbsoluteThreshold

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