F is very overbought short term, but it may not matter
Updated
F hasn't been this overbought since 2017. It's run up 23% in the last month and is up 13 of the last 15 trading days. A 20% drop over the next couple of months would be my most likely scenario.
Stocks can always go higher, especially with a good earnings report, which F has coming up in a week. But if they miss or disappoint in any way, I'd expect a pullback.
I would definitely NOT short this, despite my feelings about the possibility of a pullback, as shorts that make any money in F can take a long time to come to fruition and significant rises often happen first. Short term, even when this overbought, there tend to be minor pullbacks of a few percent, but nothing (in my opinion) worth the risk of going short. I sure wouldn't be a buyer here, though.
I think it will be oversold soon and offer a better entry point for longs. Just my opinion and not an overly strong one at that. F is tricky and TBH I don't have a great track record with it.
Stocks can always go higher, especially with a good earnings report, which F has coming up in a week. But if they miss or disappoint in any way, I'd expect a pullback.
I would definitely NOT short this, despite my feelings about the possibility of a pullback, as shorts that make any money in F can take a long time to come to fruition and significant rises often happen first. Short term, even when this overbought, there tend to be minor pullbacks of a few percent, but nothing (in my opinion) worth the risk of going short. I sure wouldn't be a buyer here, though.
I think it will be oversold soon and offer a better entry point for longs. Just my opinion and not an overly strong one at that. F is tricky and TBH I don't have a great track record with it.
Note
For the record, had I shorted this or bought puts I'd have closed that position today. My gut says it still has more downside in it, but with earnings coming, you just never know. +3.4% in two days is a great trade this week. Too bad I didn't buy puts but I just didn't have the conviction and I really didn't expect this sharp of a downside move this soon in the process.
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